Presentation on theme: "Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D. IFANS, Seoul"— Presentation transcript:
1Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D. IFANS, Seoul Preparing for Nuclear Renaissance and the Korean Model The 9th ROK-UN Joint Conference on Disarmament and Non-proliferation Issues: Nuclear Renaissance and International Peace and Security Jeju, Republic of Korea 2-3 December 2010Bong-Geun Jun, Ph.D. IFANS, Seoul
2Contents Nuclear Renaissance and Why Now Nonproliferation Requirements 3. The Korean Case4. Preparations for Newcomers5. Korea’s Role for Global Renaissance
3 Nuclear Renaissance Current Status of Civilian Nuclear Energy441 nuclear power plants in 29 countries14 % of world electricity production=5.7% of total primary energy consumption‘Global’ Nuclear Renaissance- NPP construction: 33 in 2007, 66 now- 65 ‘new’ countries considering or planning nuclear energy- South Korea: 20 now, 8 under construction, 40 in 2030- China: 10 now, 24 under construction- Global: Southeast Asian, South Asian, Middle Eastern countries
4World Nuclear Power Outlook 2030 (14.2%)(14.4%)748GWEastern Europe& Russia372GWWestern Europe119GW48 GW122GW150GW20072030Two-foldIncreaseNorth America175GWAsia268GW113 GW83GWAfrica2GW14GW[Source: IAEA, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030, Edition (High estimate) ]I’ll start my talk with a global perspective, referring the IAEA’s world nuclear power outlook.This slide shows IAEA’s 2008 Forecast on nuclear power’s generating capacity in the future.IAEA estimates that the capacity of nuclear power will increase from the present 372 giga-watts to 748 giga-watts (two-fold increase) in 2030 at high estimated scenario.Increasing energy demand, concerns over climate change and energy security are making the case for nuclear power stronger. You can see that large portion of the increase will occur in Asian region and Korea is one of the key countries pursuing the double increase of nuclear power capacity until 2030.Latin America4 GW20GW
5Why Now? Climate change: Greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations Energy (in)security: uncertain fossil-fuel prices, unstable supply, limited stockSafe operation record of NPP☞ Nuclear Energy “Dark Age” : Three Mile Island accident (USA, 1979), Chernobyl accident (Ukraine, 1986), Indian nuclear test (1974)Increasing electricity demand: industrialization, per person consumption, desalinationNuclear bandwagon, state prestige(?)
6 Nonproliferation Requirements NPT §4. the inalienable right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, but with ‘nonproliferation’ conditionality(1) SafeguardsNPT, IAEA Safeguards Agreement, Additional Protocol(2) Export ControlNSG, UNSCR 1540, CSI(3) Nuclear Security- CPPNM, IAEA INFCIRC. 225, UNSCR 1887, GICNT, Nuclear Security Summit Communique/Work Plan
7Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime NPT(75.4)NPT : Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsIAEA : International Atomic Energy AgencyCSA : Comprehensive Safeguards AgreementNSG : Nuclear Suppliers GroupCPPNM : Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear MaterialCTBT : Comprehensive Test Ban TreatyFMCT : Fissile Material Cut off TreatyHorizontalProliferation:VerticalProliferationSafeguardsExportControlPhysicalProtectionOther Export Control RegimesFor the challenges, first, I’ll talk about nuclear nonproliferation.As you all know, Korea is a full supporter of the global nonproliferation regime.Korea is a founding member of the IAEA.Since ratifying the NPT in 1975, Korea has joined all treaties, conventions, groups implementing nonproliferation measures such as safeguards, export control, physical protection and also nuclear test ban as you see in the slide.IAEACSAZanggerCommittee,NSGCPPNMCTBT(99.12)AG : Australian Group (96.10)BWC : Biological Weapons Convention (87.6)CWC : Chemical Weapons Convention (97.4)MTCR : Missile Technology Control Regime (01.3)Wassenaar Arrangement (96.7)AdditionalProtocolUNSCR 1540IAEAGuidelines(INFCIRC/225)FMCT
8Recent Positions on NE and Nonproliferation L’Aquila G-8 Statement on Nonproliferation (2009.7) 7. … We are committed to promoting nuclear non-proliferation, safeguards, safety and security in cooperation with the IAEA and welcome new initiatives in emerging nuclear energy countries on nuclear education and training as well as institutional capacity building in these fields. … UNSC Resolution 1887 (2009.9) 11. Encourages efforts to ensure development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy by countries seeking to maintain or develop their capacities in this field in a framework that reduces proliferation risk and adheres to the highest international standards for safeguards, security, and safety;
92010 NPT Review Conference Final Document 52. The Conference confirms that, when developing nuclear energy, including nuclear power, the use of nuclear energy should be accompanied by commitments to and ongoing implementation of safeguards, as well as appropriate and effective levels of safety and security, in accordance with IAEA standards and consistent with the national legislation and respective international obligations of States.
10Korea’s Position Basic bargain among the 3 pillars in NPT - nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, PUNE are “mutually reinforcing and complementary”- President’s Prague speech(2009.4)PUNE with conditionality- PUNE with strict nonproliferation and SG obligations- Access to nuclear fuel cycle technology: multilateral approaches should not deny or limit the legitimate right to PUNE; conditions of objective and economic needs, peaceful purposes and full fulfillment of nonproliferation obligations- More attention to the back-end nuclear fuel cycle
11 The Korean Case Nuclear Power Generation 2009, 20 units 17.7 GWe, 34% of electricity supply(base), 24 % of capacity- 2030, 35 units 35 GWe, 59% of supplyKEPCO average cost 68 kwon(5cents)/KWH: Nuclear 39 Kwon(3cents) vs. Coal 53 Kwon vs. LNG 143 KwonPublic consensus for NE: Cheap, reliable and high quality electricity supply for fast economic growth and high-tech industries
12History of Nuclear Energy Development 1958 Atomic Energy Act1959 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI)1962 First Reactor: TRIGA Mark-II Research Reactor, General Atomics1978 First NPP: Kori Unit 1, WestinghouseIn the 1950s, when Koreans were struggling to survive in the wake of the devastation wrought by the Korean War, Korea very fortunately realized early on the significance of nuclear energy as shown in the slide.A small Asian nation that had no scientific and technological infrastructure took a huge step towards securing a wholly new source of energy for humanity.
13Korea’s NE Export NPP Export Strategy (2009) To export 10 units by 2020, 80 units by 2030 Plan (20% of 430 new NPPs projection)Market: UAE, Turkey, India, Jordan, South Africa, China, Vietnam. …- Strength: Proven technology, world-best operation rate, price, safety, construction periodNPP 4 units of 1400 MW(APR 1400) reactor to UAE at $20 billion( ):Research reactor to Jordan at $132 mil. (2010.3)
14UAE Nuclear Power Plant UAE ExportSelected as a Commercial Nuclear Reactor in UAE (27 Dec 2009)Reactor Model: APR UnitsConstruction site: western Abu DhabiLast December, as you all know, 4 APR1400’s proposed by the Korean KEPCO consortium was selected as UAE nuclear power plants, which will be constructed in western Abu Dhabi.I think the primary factors of the success are :World best operating capability,Accumulated experience in continuous domestic construction,Outstanding design and construction capability, andCompetitive construction and operation cost.
15Jordan Research and Test Reactor Core type : Open Pool Type Multipurpose Research Reactor (5 MWth )Purposes : Training, Radioisotope Production, etc.Project Schedule’ : Selected as preferred bidderContract signing ceremony on March 2010Detailed Design by 2012Built on Jordan University of Science and Technology by 2015Also earlier in last December, the KAERI and Daewoo consortium was selected as a preferred bidder for the 5MWth Jordan Research and Test Reactor, which will be built on Jordan University of Science and Technology by and the contract was signed last March.The ground-breaking ceremony will be held in November.I believe all these accomplishments in nuclear export clearly demonstrate the Korea’s will and ability for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
16Success Factors of the “Korean Model” State-led strategic planning and early startCooperation with and support from U.S.- US-Korea 123 agreement( )Partnership with IAEAFocus on Civilian Use only- South vs. North KoreaHuman resources: U.S.-educated engineers, researchers, R&D centers, universities
17Korea’s Nuclear Infrastructure Ministry of Education, Science and Technology: nuclear policy, int’l cooperation, safety, safeguards/security div.KAERI: Korea Atomic Energy Research InstituteKINS: Korea Institute of Nuclear SafetyKINAC: Korea institute of Nonproliferation and ControlKONICOF: Korea Nuclear International Cooperation Fd.Ministry of Knowledge Economy: nuclear industry, export promotionKEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation)KHNP (Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power)Doosan Heavy Industry: nuclear key components- Civil engineering firms
18 Preparations for Newcomers Typical Criteria for DecisionsEconomics: costs/benefitsSafety: nuclear accidentEnvironment: climate change, nuclear wasteNonproliferation: capability, intentions, security invironment, infrastructure(law, culture, public)Other Major ConsiderationsEnergy SecurityTechnological and Economic AdvancementPolitics: security, prestige factor
19Cost-Benefit Analysis of NE BenefitsCosts and RisksEnergy security- Economical and reliable electricity supply for industry, desalination and personal consumptionLow-emission energy for environmentTechnological, industrial advancement and spill-over effectPrestige effectProliferation risksNuclear fuel supply and spent-fuel management problemsOpportunity cost (lost investment for other renewable energy resources)Costs for nuclear safety, safeguard and security
20Obstacles and Costs to New Comers Costs for Nuclear safety and security infrastructure- regulations, institutions, cultureCivilian nuclear technology capabilityRegional politics: rivalries, domestic and regional instability factorsNuclear proliferation concerns in the regionNuclear fuel cycle activities: nuclear fuel supply, spent fuel managementEconomic and present needs
21Preparations for NE National Nuclear Energy Roadmap Energy needs, financing, national consensusNational Nuclear safety, safeguards, security, export control regime:Human resources development planFuel-cycle issues: fuel supply, spent-fuel management2. International CooperationNonproliferation preparations, commitmentCooperation with IAEA: technical, safeguards/securityBilateral cooperation agreements:- ex. U.S. 123 agreement: EURATOM/Japan, Standard 123 model, UAE models
22Preparations for NE 3. Regional, Multilateral Cooperation Joint solutions for nuclear power generation, NPP sites, fuel-supply, spent-fuel managment, safeguards, joint R&D centerEURATOM modelNuclear-weapons Free ZoneImplementing UNSC 1540, 1887, Nuclear Security Summit Communiqué
235. Korea’s Role for Nuclear Renaissance the Korean Model for NewcomersContributions to the global nonproliferation regime- hosting 2011 GICNT, 2012 NSSNonproliferation assistance to Newcomers‘Responsible’ exporter of nuclear energyDevelopment of future & sustainable nuclear energy systemsparticipating in GIF, GNEPDeveloping proliferation-resistant and sustainable future nuclear energy system