Economic Power The US economy (GDP US$ 14.5 trillion) is more than two and a half times the size of the world’s second largest economy China (US $ 5.8 trillion)
RankCountry GDP (millions of US$) — World 63,048,823 1 United States 14,582,400 — Eurozone 12,174,523 2 People's Republic of ChinaPeople's Republic of China 5,878,629 3 Japan 5,497,813 4 Germany 3,309,669 GDP figures 2010 (World Bank) Table: Wikipedia
Luxembourg 83,978 - Macao 58,262 2 United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates 57,821 3 Norway 55,672 4 Singapore 50,701 5 Brunei DarussalamBrunei Darussalam 48,995 6 United States 46,436 7 Kuwait 46,079 8 Switzerland 44,717 - Hong Kong 43,862 Per capita GDP 2009 ( World Bank Estimates) Table: Wikipedia
We lived in an American century But will it last for ever? We live in a time of transition
A walk through history Pre-World War 1: The Age of Empires Dominated by Britain, France, Russia and the Austro-Hungarian empire, who maintained peace through a balance of power. Divided up most of Asia and Africa among themselves.
Why did it break down? A world system is stable as long as all the major powers are satisfied with it. If there is a rising power that is not satisfied, system will become unstable. The pre WW1 balance was upset by the growth of Germany as a new power after its reunification by Bismarck in 1871.The system could not accommodate the ambitions of a rising Germany.
What could change the current world order? Other rising nations and groups of nations: -China -Japan -India -The European Union
The European Union A grouping of 27 countries with a common internal market, common currency and closely coordinated economic policies- Taken together, the largest economy in the world In terms of population, fourth largest entity.
The European Union The EU aims to have a common foreign and security policy, but as events in Libya have shown, the EU is unable to take decisive military action. Big question for the EU’s future role in global politics: can it develop a common foreign policy, and take independent military action ?
Japan Despite the problems of the last decade, still the world’s third largest economy Once its economic restructuring is complete, there is no reason why Japan can not enjoy another long spurt of growth as it did from the 1960s to 1990. Japan’s constitution limits the size of its armed forces: but there is a debate on whether this should be revised Japan has the technology to very rapidly become a nuclear weapons power
China China has overtaken Japan to become the world’s second largest economy Already a nuclear weapons power Problems that need to be overcome: reform of financial structure, unemployment, corruption Per capita income still low Aging population due to one child policy Can growth and modernisation proceed without political reform?
India At present, 11 th largest economy in the world. If it continues to grow at the current 6- 7 percent a year, by 2030 it would have overtaken Japan Large population. Good technical manpower Nuclear weaponry as well as large armed forces Problems: poverty social inequalities, social tensions, governmental inefficiencies
The next few years We have seen the balance of global economic power will shift towards Asia, powered by China, Japan and India. As the European Union expands and consolidates, it might become a significant player The rise of a multi-polar world? How will the US react to this?
The subjects of international news are changing Traditionally, international news has occupied itself with war, disasters, crises, and diplomacy. The new 21st agenda for international news, is much broader and more exciting It will be driven not so much by the formal relations between nations, but the consequences of globalisation.
Environmental wear and tear: -climate change -global water shortages -food shortages -preserving and protecting natural resources
Global inequality -global trade and inequality -consequences of growing inequalities between nations and regions
Things to do before next class Sign up for e mail alerts from Council on Foreign Relations, Reuters, BBC and Google for general news as well as areas you are writing on Familiarize yourself with the news sources and news sites on the class web sites. Listen/watch a world news newscast every day so you know what the top global stories are Read the FT and the IHT every day Readings will be e mailed to you for next class.
Course work Short stories for the web site Suggested areas for reporting: 1. Arab spring 2. Afghanistan 3. China and the world 4. North Korea/Burma 5. Food, water, resource shortages, environment 6. Poisoned fruits of globalisation: people trafficking, arms smuggling, drugs, refugees
Each student will write 3 stories during the course Each around 300-500 words long Each group will present their stories twice during the term ( we will have presentations every class) http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/nigeria-condemns-attacks-on-black- migrants-in-libya-papers http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/nigeria-condemns-attacks-on-black- migrants-in-libya-papers
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