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1 Global Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal Sheryll Poe U.S.-Global Trade Politics October 30, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Global Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal Sheryll Poe U.S.-Global Trade Politics October 30, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Global Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal Sheryll Poe U.S.-Global Trade Politics October 30, 2008

2 2 Two Democracies: U.S. and India In July 2005, President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh issued a joint statement announcing their intent to negotiate a civil nuclear pact In July 2005, President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh issued a joint statement announcing their intent to negotiate a civil nuclear pact Photo credit: White House

3 3 The history of Indias nuclear program 1950: The United States helped India develop nuclear energy under the Atoms for Peace Program1950: The United States helped India develop nuclear energy under the Atoms for Peace Program 1968: India refused to sign the NPT, claiming it was biased. (only 3 countries in the world never signed NPT -- India, Pakistan, and Israel. North Korea signed but withdrew later)1968: India refused to sign the NPT, claiming it was biased. (only 3 countries in the world never signed NPT -- India, Pakistan, and Israel. North Korea signed but withdrew later) 1974: India tested its first nuclear bomb made with materials from the Canadian reactor in Tarapur, which supposed to be used only for civilian purpose1974: India tested its first nuclear bomb made with materials from the Canadian reactor in Tarapur, which supposed to be used only for civilian purpose

4 4 What are the terms of the deal? India agrees to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities and place its civil facilities under IAEA safeguardsIndia agrees to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities and place its civil facilities under IAEA safeguards The use of technology is only for civilian purpose -- to create energy. India cannot use the technology for military purposeThe use of technology is only for civilian purpose -- to create energy. India cannot use the technology for military purpose India commits to strengthening the security of its nuclear arsenals.India commits to strengthening the security of its nuclear arsenals. The companies from U.S and NSG countries will be allowed to build nuclear reactors in India and provide nuclear fuel for its civilian energy programThe companies from U.S and NSG countries will be allowed to build nuclear reactors in India and provide nuclear fuel for its civilian energy program

5 5 What kind of technology would India receive in return? India would be eligible to buy nuclear technology from NSG countries including the USA. Nuclear reactors and fuel for making power for energy hungry India India will become the only country that gets nuclear technology without signing the NPT

6 6 Who hated it in India and why? The national Communist PartyThe national Communist Party The Right wing Bharatiya Janata Party, the country's principal opposition partyThe Right wing Bharatiya Janata Party, the country's principal opposition party A principal Left wing partyA principal Left wing party Photo credit: Gurinder Osan, AP

7 7 What were the objections in the U.S. and NSG? Some American law makersSome American law makers Some countries in NSG – Austria, New Zealand, Ireland and ChinaSome countries in NSG – Austria, New Zealand, Ireland and China The main objection is proliferation – India refuses to sign on to NPTThe main objection is proliferation – India refuses to sign on to NPT It is outrageous that such a critical vote, one that will forever change the global nonproliferation regime, was taken without the benefit of full Congressional review and oversight, as required by the law. This is a terrible bill that threatens the future of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. – Rep. Edward Markey (D-MA) before the House approval on September 27, 2008. Photo credit: Boston Herald

8 8 So why do it? A share of India's plans to spend $150 billion in the next decade for nuclear power plants A counterweight to China A strategic partnership in a dangerous part of the world Partner in the war against terrorism In recognition of Indias good record on proliferation Photo credit: White House This agreement sends a signal to the world: Nations that follow the path of democracy and responsible behavior will find a friend in the United States of America. – President Bush at the October 8, 2008 signing of the U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act

9 9 Where the candidates stand I voted for the U.S.-India nuclear agreement because India is a strong democracy and a natural strategic partner for the U.S. in the 21st century. – Barrack Obama to Reuters, July 11, 2008 India has been a responsible democracy and this agreement allows it to become further integrated into the global effort to control proliferation of dangerous technologies. – John McCain campaign statement, October 2, 2008 Photo credit: candidate sites

10 10 Outstanding Issues Nuclear rivalries – with Pakistan, China, IranNuclear rivalries – with Pakistan, China, Iran Other NSG countries – France, Russia -- will sell to India and shut out the U.S.Other NSG countries – France, Russia -- will sell to India and shut out the U.S. Undermines the NPT and shows the rules can be bent for sales to other non-signatoriesUndermines the NPT and shows the rules can be bent for sales to other non-signatories New Delhi has not ratified an international nuclear accident liability convention known as the CSC.New Delhi has not ratified an international nuclear accident liability convention known as the CSC.

11 11 What can the U.S. do? Work with other NSG members on becoming joint suppliers – France, Russia, even ChinaWork with other NSG members on becoming joint suppliers – France, Russia, even China Work with the UN to keep an eye on Pakistan, IranWork with the UN to keep an eye on Pakistan, Iran Create a new NPT treaty that more accurately reflects the realities of todayCreate a new NPT treaty that more accurately reflects the realities of today Provide technical assistance to help India become a good nuclear partnerProvide technical assistance to help India become a good nuclear partner Create a nuclear FTA with other countriesCreate a nuclear FTA with other countries Create a US watchdog group involving agencies, Congress and non-proliferation expertsCreate a US watchdog group involving agencies, Congress and non-proliferation experts

12 12 Final Thought What message does that send to others who want to join the nuclear club? -- Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D.

13 13 Sources Adams, Jonathan. International community split over U.S.-India nuclear deal. The Christian Science Monitor. August 21, 2008. http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0820/p99s01-duts.htmlAdams, Jonathan. International community split over U.S.-India nuclear deal. The Christian Science Monitor. August 21, 2008. http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0820/p99s01-duts.html http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0820/p99s01-duts.html Bajoria, Jayshree; Pan, Esther. The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal. The Washington Post. September 4, 2008.Bajoria, Jayshree; Pan, Esther. The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal. The Washington Post. September 4, 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/04/AR2008090401614.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/04/AR2008090401614.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/04/AR2008090401614.html Denyer, Simon. Factbox: U.S.-India Nuclear Deal Business Potential. Reuters. October 2, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSSP5726420081002Denyer, Simon. Factbox: U.S.-India Nuclear Deal Business Potential. Reuters. October 2, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSSP5726420081002 http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSSP5726420081002 India Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Responding to Critics. The White House Office of the Press Secretary. March 2006. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/03/20060308-3.htmlIndia Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Responding to Critics. The White House Office of the Press Secretary. March 2006. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/03/20060308-3.html http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/03/20060308-3.html Kronstadt, K. Alan. India U.S. Relations. Congressional Research Service. Updated August 12, 2008.Kronstadt, K. Alan. India U.S. Relations. Congressional Research Service. Updated August 12, 2008. http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33529_20080812.pdfhttp://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33529_20080812.pdfhttp://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33529_20080812.pdf Kushner, Adam B. How Indias New Nuke Deal Might Set Off an Arms Race. Newsweek. October 20, 2008. http://www.newsweek.com/id/163590Kushner, Adam B. How Indias New Nuke Deal Might Set Off an Arms Race. Newsweek. October 20, 2008. http://www.newsweek.com/id/163590 http://www.newsweek.com/id/163590 More Than Just the 123 Agreement: The Future of U.S.-Indo Relations. Congressional hearing of the House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. June 25, 2008. http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing_notice.asp?id=1013More Than Just the 123 Agreement: The Future of U.S.-Indo Relations. Congressional hearing of the House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. June 25, 2008. http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing_notice.asp?id=1013http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing_notice.asp?id=1013 Page, Jeremy. India parliament launches nuclear debate in vote that could break Government. The India Times. July 22, 2008. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4372268.ecePage, Jeremy. India parliament launches nuclear debate in vote that could break Government. The India Times. July 22, 2008. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4372268.ece http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4372268.ece Perkovich, George. Faulty Promises: The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal. Policy Outlook, No. 21. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. September 2005. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17419Perkovich, George. Faulty Promises: The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal. Policy Outlook, No. 21. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. September 2005. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17419http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17419 Tomero, Leonor. Why the U.S. India Nuclear Deal is a Bad Deal. Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. August 2008. http://armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nonproliferation/articles/bad_us_india_deal/Tomero, Leonor. Why the U.S. India Nuclear Deal is a Bad Deal. Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. August 2008. http://armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nonproliferation/articles/bad_us_india_deal/http://armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nonproliferation/articles/bad_us_india_deal/ US business hails $150 bn'opportunity' in N-deal. The Economic Times. October 2, 2008. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3552004.cmsUS business hails $150 bn'opportunity' in N-deal. The Economic Times. October 2, 2008. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3552004.cms http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3552004.cms


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