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PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape September.

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Presentation on theme: "PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape September."— Presentation transcript:

1 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape September 2010

2 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Important Legal Information This information is not intended to be a recommendation or opinion regarding the equity securities of the referenced companies. This material may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (CSSU). This material has been prepared by the Chief Investment Officer of the Private Banking USA business of CSSU and not by the CSSU research department. It is provided for informational purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned. The material is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is intended only to provide observations and views of the Chief Investment Officer, which may be different from, or inconsistent with, the observations and views of CSSU research department analysts, CSSU traders or sales personnel, or the proprietary positions of CSSU. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the Chief Investment Officer at any time without notice. Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding future performance. The material set forth above has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable but CSSU does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions or changes in market factors. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view of a particular market. CSSU may, from time to time, participate or invest in transactions with issuers of securities that participate in the markets referred to herein, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or derivatives thereof. The material does not constitute objective research under FSA rules. The most recent CSSU research on any company mentioned is available to online subscribers at CSSU does not provide legal or tax advice. Consult your personal accounting, legal, and tax advisor with respect to any legal or tax implications.www.credit-suisse.com/pbclientview The Private Banking USA business in CSSU is a regulated broker dealer and investment advisor. It is not a chartered bank, trust company or depository institution. It is not authorized to accept deposits or provide corporate trust services and it is not licensed or regulated by any state or federal banking authority. Internal Revenue Service Circular 230 Disclosure: As provided for in Treasury regulations, advice (if any) relating to federal taxes that is contained in this communication (including attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (1) avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code or (2) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any plan or arrangement addressed herein. ©2010 Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC. All rights reserved.

3 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Table of Contents Executive Summary Guideline Allocations Market/Strategy Summary Key Focus: – China – Interest Rates Global Markets Recap Market and Economic Outlook

4 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Executive Summary

5 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Executive Summary

6 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Guideline Allocations & Tactical Overweights

7 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Guideline Allocations Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

8 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Market / Strategy Summary

9 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. – Global growth momentum slowing, expansion expected to continue Economic indicators such as PMI index in expansionary territory, but below recovery highs US jobs picture remains weak, but private payrolls increased for past eight months Monetary policy to remain accommodative (maybe more so) due to benign inflation – Equities: investors cautious despite healthy earnings growth – valuations attractive Valuations, low rates/inflation, and high cash levels positive for equities Favor large cap, quality growth and high dividend, themes: emerging consumer, infrastructure Overweight: US, Asia ex-Japan, Germany, Canada, Nordic countries, Brazil – Interest Rates: mixed data and uncertainty support low rates Expect rates to stay low for longer, fed on hold until 2012, 10Yr Treasury near 3.0% end-10 Credit: low for longer rate environment = demand for yield, spreads may tighten further – Currencies: less yield support for USD; commodity-related & EM should outperform Rate spreads supportive of EUR/USD, but bouts of risk aversion should continue to boost dollar Low yields supportive of creditor currencies such as yen and Swiss franc – Commodities: expect further gains for base metals due to strong demand growth Oil prices appear undervalued below $75, healthy global demand supportive Gold gets support from low rates, but expect to underperform as safe haven demand dries up Market/Strategy Summary – Sept 2010 Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

10 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Purchasing Managers Index (Above 50 = Expansion) Indicators point to decelerating, positive growth after rebound Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse IDC

11 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Real GDP Growth Forecasts 2010 & 2011 Emerging markets lead global growth Source: Credit Suisse Estimates

12 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Monthly,000s) Private nonfarm payrolls (ex-govt) up for past 8 months Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

13 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. August price change in local currency Most major equity indices fell in August amid bearish sentiment Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

14 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. MSCI World Forward P/E Valuations attractive at current market levels Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Avg: /31/10: 11.3

15 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. YTD Change in 10Yr Govt Bond Yield (in bps) Yields have fallen globally along with inflation expectations Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

16 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Dollar vs Euro, Yen and Pound YTD (Indexed to 0 at 12/31/09) USD stronger vs European currencies, weaker vs yen Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

17 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. DJUBS Commodity Sub Indices YTD (Indexed to 0 at 12/31/10) YTD: Precious +14%, Ag +6%, Industrial -1%, Energy -20% Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

18 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Dashboard 2010 Key Focus: China

19 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. China Chinese growth expected to remain strong, lead global activity Export growth returns, augmenting domestic strength Money supply growth is normalizing, easing inflation pressures Equity valuations attractive given strong earnings growth outlook Credit Fewer banks tightening lending standards Consumer US consumer confidence remains tentative, is improving Commodities DJ UBS index +28% from low, 45% below peak Cash Assets have moved from money market to bond funds - investors remain cautious Cash on corporate balance sheets at record levels, may be deployed Dashboard Key Focus: China Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

20 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Real GDP Growth: China & Global (Y-o-Y % Change) Chinese growth expected to remain strong, lead global activity Source: Credit Suisse 2010 Dashboard: China

21 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Chinese Exports & Retail Sales, Y-o-Y % Chg Export growth returns, augmenting domestic strength Source: Bloomberg via Credit Suisse IDC 2010 Dashboard: China

22 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. China Money Supply Growth (M2, Y-o-Y % Change) Money supply growth normalizing, easing inflation pressures Source: Bloomberg via Credit Suisse IDC 2010 Dashboard: China Avg: 18%

23 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. MSCI China Forward P/E Equity valuations attractive given strong earnings growth outlook Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream via Credit Suisse IDC 2010 Dashboard: China Avg: /31/10: 12.1

24 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Loan Survey: Net % respondents reporting tightening lending standards Smaller % of banks are tightening lending standards Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Credit Fewer banks tightening

25 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Consumer Confidence US consumer confidence remains tentative, is improving Source: Bloomberg 2010 Dashboard: Consumer

26 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. DJ UBS Commodity Index DJ UBS index +28% from low, 45% below peak Source: Bloomberg 2010 Dashboard: Commodities +28% Mar-09

27 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Assets in Money Market vs Bond & Income Funds ($ Trillions) Investors have moved cash in to bond funds, remain cautious Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Cash

28 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 Co. Cash & Equivalents ($ billions) Cash on corporate balance at record levels, may be deployed Source: Standard & Poors 2010 Dashboard: Cash *Through Q1, latest data available

29 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Key Focus: Interest Rates

30 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Expect interest rates to stay low for longer due to weak sentiment, modest growth outlook and low inflation – Price rally in Treasury bonds rational in current economic environment – Rates have likely bottomed but expect government bond prices to remain well supported and rise in yield to be gradual Low rates create opportunity for governments, corporations and consumers to access funds at low rates & reduced interest expense – US Government: despite jump in 2009 budget deficit, interest expense fell - budget deficit increased $960 bln while interest expense fell $68 bln – Corporations: low corporate bond yields allow corporations to raise funds at very low rates, leading to increasing interest coverage ratios (more earnings per dollar of interest) – Consumers: for those able to borrow or re-finance at very low mortgage rates, lower mortgage payments free up more disposable income Key Focus: Interest Rates Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

31 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US 2Yr Treasury Yield Short Treasury yields at all-time lows Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Interest Rates 8/31/10: 0.5% 30Y Avg: 6.1%

32 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. 10Yr Treasury Yield less 10 Yr Treasury Inflation-linked Yield (TIPS implied) low US inflation expectations = low bond yields Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 10Y: 1.63% 5Y: 1.27% 2010 Dashboard: Interest Rates

33 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Barclays US Agg Long Treasury Index (Total Return) Price rally in Treasurys rational given economic environment Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Interest Rates + 20% since 4/5/10 +29%

34 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Treasury Yearly Budget Deficit vs Interest Expense (USD, Billions) Low rates = lower interest expense despite larger deficits Source: Bloomberg 2010 Dashboard: Interest Rates

35 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Corporate Non-Financial Interest Coverage & Bond Yields Low rates = higher interest coverage ratios (earnings / interest) 2010 Dashboard: Interest Rates Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream

36 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Freddie Mac US 30YR Mortgage Rate Low rates = lower mortgage payments for many consumers 2010 Dashboard: Interest Rates Source: Bloomberg 8/31/10: 4.3%

37 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Global Markets Recap

38 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Markets Recap Equities Mixed economic data and renewed double-dip fears pushed global equity markets lower in August. Only Canada (+1.7%), India (0.6%) and China (0.1%) posted gains on the month. Japan led declines due to stronger yen (bad for exporters). Emerging markets, led by S. Korea and India, continued to perform better than developed; the MSCI EM index + 0.4% YTD vs S&P 500 (-4.6%) and EAFE (-5.3%). China (-20% YTD) is laggard after strong 2009 (+80%). In August, weak sentiment led to outperformance of more defensive sectors such as telecomm, utilities and staples. All global sectors are down YTD. In the US, only consumer discretionary (+1.0%) and industrials (+0.2%) are positive. Large cap stocks held up much better than small in August (Russell % vs Russell 2000); small cap remains better YTD thanks to strong start to Value continues to outperform growth in both large and small cap space. Currency The dollar was stronger in August and YTD against all major currencies except the yen and Swiss franc, creditor currencies that benefit from low rates. Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

39 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Markets Recap Interest Rates & Fixed Income Government bond yields continued to trend lower in August due to strong investor demand for safe assets, low inflation and increasingly mixed growth outlook. The 10Yr US Treasury yield moved below 2.5% and the yield curve (10Y – 2Y) took a flatter shape. Euro area 10Yr fell to 2.1%, UK to 2.9%, Japan to 0.95%. Fixed income indices continue strong performance; falling rates have made longer dated Treasurys the top performing segment (+21% YTD). Credit indices have also performed well but wider credit spreads lead to underpformance versus governments. Nominal bonds outperform inflation-linked as inflation expectations fall. US tax-exempt bond yields vs Treasurys are at, or below, historic averages. Commodities Lower rates and increased uncertainty lifted precious metal prices in August (gold +6%, silver +7%). The LME metals index posted a small gain despite equity selloff (copper +1.6% in August & +1.0% YTD). Oil remained weak, falling 9%. Volatility Slow summer trading helped keep the VIX Volatility Index subdued, averaging 25 during August (vs average of 24 in Jan-July). Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

40 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL MARKETS Total Return Through 08/31/10 Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream

41 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS YTD Price change in local currency (YTD through 8/31/10) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

42 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL SECTORS (S&P 1200 Global) Price change in USD (YTD Through 08/31/10) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

43 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US EQUITY RETURNS (Size & Style) Total Return Through 08/31/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg

44 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US SECTORS (S&P 500) Price Change Through 08/31/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

45 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CURRENCY % Change As of 08/31/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

46 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL INTEREST RATES 10Y Govt Bond Yield (12/31/09 & 08/31/10) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

47 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US FIXED INCOME & RATES As of 08/31/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

48 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CREDIT Spread to 10-Yr Treasury As of 08/31/10 (Basis Points) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

49 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US FIXED INCOME YTD Total Return YTD through 8/3110 Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream

50 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. NON-US FIXED INCOME YTD Total Return YTD through 8/31/10 (In Local Currency) Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream

51 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. COMMODITIES % Change As of 08/31/10 (Spot Price) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

52 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. HEDGE FUNDS & PRIVATE EQUITY Source: Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, Cambridge Associates, Thomson Reuters Datastream

53 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

54 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Looking Ahead – 2010 Market & Economic Outlook

55 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Market & Economic Outlook Summary Global expansion expected to continue, although at slower pace following strong rebound from crisis lows; double dip remains unlikely global GDP growth forecasted at 4.6% followed by 4.3% in Growth in emerging markets (particularly Asia) expected to remain strong, boosting global activity in part through increasing imports. Amid low inflation, central banks able to sustain (increase) policies to support growth. Maintain positive long-term equity outlook; valuations attractive given healthy earnings growth expectations (MSCI World forward P/E = 11.3 vs 20Yr avg of 16.7). Weak sentiment, not positive fundamentals, remains near-term market driver as continued high unemployment and slow recovery trouble investors. Overweight US, Asia ex-Japan, Germany, Canada, and Nordic countries. Underweight emerging Europe. Neutral stance on euro area. US: focus on larger companies, quality growth and high dividend (with dividend growth potential). Overweight technology (upgrade cycle, business investment) and consumer staples (valuation & cash flows, focus on strong brand names). Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

56 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Market & Economic Outlook Summary Mixed economic data, continued uncertainty and accommodative central bank policies should keep rates low for longer. Expect US 10Yr Treasury yield near 3% end-10. Fed may implement more quantitative easing, rate hike unlikely until Globally, no policy rate changes expected in 2010; commodity-related (Brazil, Aust, Canada) likely pause tightening earlier than expected due to benign inflation outlook. Low for longer rate environment plus solid corporate fundamentals should keep demand high for credit-related fixed income, expect tighter spreads in to year end. Overweight US investment grade and high yield, and emerging markets. Continue to highlight importance of careful credit selection. US dollar has less yield support as Fed expected to remain on hold until Low yields benefit creditor currencies (JPY, CHF). Commodity-related and emerging market currencies should outperform, although valuations rich for some (AUD). Base metals have most supportive fundamentals - strong demand outpacing supply. Global demand should also lift oil prices, although high inventories may weigh near-term. Low rates support gold, but expected to underperform other commodities. Wheat supply outage largely priced in; positive long-term outlook for agriculture. Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

57 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Real GDP Growth Source: Credit Suisse estimates

58 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL EQUITIES OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

59 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Equities Snapshot (As of 08/31/10) Source: I/B/E/S, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg

60 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. EQUITY INDEX FORECASTS Source: Credit Suisse estimates

61 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 SECTOR OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

62 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 Sector Snapshot (As of 08/31/10) Source: I/B/E/S, Thomson Reuters Datastream

63 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. HEDGE FUND & PRIVATE EQUITY OUTLOOK Through July, 2010 (most recent data available) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

64 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. POLICY RATE OUTLOOK Government Policy Rates (%) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

65 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK 10-Yr Government Bond Yield Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates

66 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

67 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK Preferred Maturities (In Years) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

68 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CURRENCY OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates US DollarAug EComments vs. Euro* Euro weaker vs dollar in Aug due to risk aversion. Fed expected to remain on hold longer than ECB, pushing spreads in favor of euro. However, bouts of risk aversion could boost dollar from time to time. Euro neutral. vs. Japanese Yen Narrow rate spreads support yen. However yen unlikely to remain much below 83 due to valuation. Yen neutral. vs. British Pound* BoE likely to raise rates before Fed due to inflation risk. However, pound vulnerable to de-leveraging. Pound marginally bullish. vs. Canadian Dollar C-dollar is the least overvalued among commodity currencies. However, it remains vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion. C-dollar marginally bullish. vs. Mexican Peso Nearly balanced current account and capital inflows supportive of peso. Peso outlook marginally bullish. vs. Brazilian Real Robust growth and commodity outlook should translate into stronger real. Strong carry appeal. *indicates inverse exchange rate quotation

69 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CURRENCY FORECASTS Source: Credit Suisse estimates

70 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. COMMODITIES OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse

71 The Investment Landscape – September 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. COMMODITIES FORECASTS Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates

72 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – September 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape


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