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1 Istanbul, Turkey October 26-28, 2004 Hazard Risk Management in Europe and Central Asia Workshop Mihallaq Spirollari National Project Officer Disaster.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Istanbul, Turkey October 26-28, 2004 Hazard Risk Management in Europe and Central Asia Workshop Mihallaq Spirollari National Project Officer Disaster."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Istanbul, Turkey October 26-28, 2004 Hazard Risk Management in Europe and Central Asia Workshop Mihallaq Spirollari National Project Officer Disaster Management and Emergency Preparedness Project Findings of the Risk Assessment Study in Albania

2 2 DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PLANS Planning elements in terms of:  Physical damage to identified elements at risk  Related economic losses  Homelessness  Human casualty for each hazard are separately quantified.

3 3 RISK ANALYSIS, QUANTIFICATIONS, MAPPING Earthquakes Floods Landslides and Rockfalls Forest Fires Winter-storms, Snowstorms Epidemics Mapping of critical industrial and other facilities

4 4 ELEMENTS AT RISK Population Housing (individual, collective) Public Buildings (Schools, Hospitals) Sections/Facilities of Vital Transportation routes Critical industrial facilities & Dams

5 5 Networking  Ministry of Local Government & Decentralization,GOV of Albania  Ministry of Public Works  Ministry of Health  Ministry of Agriculture  Ministry of Transportation  Ministry of Education and Science  Ministry of Environment  Academy of Science

6 6 For each year, the annual frequencies of respective district are normalized by the annual Country frequency and presented as percents. Y 2001 (9.6%) 9,6 Y 1995 Y 1996 Y 2000 DEVOLL KOLONJE POGRADEC KORCE BULQIZE DIBER LIBRAZHD HAS KUKES PUKE TROPOJE ELBASAN GRAMSH SKRAPAR DELVINE SARANDA TEPELENA PERMET GJIROKASTER MAT MIRDITE KRUJE TIRANA BERAT MALLAKASTER KUCOVE VLORA LUSHNJE PEQIN MALESI E MADHE SHKODER DURRES LEZHE KURBIN FIER KAVAJA Year of ,6,6 3,2,2 4,8,8 6,4,4 8,0,0 to 1,6,6 3,2,2 4,8,8 6,4,4 8,0,0 9,6,6 (10) (14) (6) (5) (0) (1) [% of Country Total] 60,958.4 Cases Annual Frequency of Diarrhoeal Diseases By Districts

7 7 100 Years Return Period of the Maximum Flood Potential Map Flood Risk Zone Extreme Low Moderate Considerable High Flooding of 1962/63 Flooded Area Lakes Rivers 100 Years Return Period West Plain Flood Risk Map

8 8 Stability of Natural Slopes Along the Road Network in Relation to RP-200 Seismic Excitation 0.30 – 0.45 g < 0.15 g 0.15 – 0.30 g Excitation Level National Roads Principal Roads Relatively Stable Unstable Stable Stability of Natural Slopes Stability of Natural Slopes Along the Railway Network in Relation to RP-200 Seismic Excitation Railway System

9 9 Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Very High Risk Forest Fire Risk Map of Albania /by Districts/ Avalanche Risk Region Lake Regional National Road Type Snow Avalanche Risk Map

10 10 5-Days Snow Cover Risk 25.2 > RP - 2, AP=50% RP - 5, AP=20% RP -10, AP=10% RP -20, AP=5% RP>20, AP<5% National Regional Road Type Table 41.1Population by Snow-Cover Duration Zones (% of Country Population) Return Period (Years) > > > > > > > > Annual Probability (in %) Number of Consecutive Snow-Covering Days

11 11 15 Earthquake Scenarios For Return Periods: 50, 100, 200, 475, 1000, 5000 & Years 1- ScE-01 Shkodra 6- ScE-06 Vlora11- ScE-11 Diber 2- ScE-02 Lezhe 7- ScE-07 Himare12- ScE-12 Pogradec 3- ScE-03 Tirana 8- ScE-08 Tapeline13- ScE-13 Kukes 4- ScE-04 Durres 9- ScE-09 Saranda14- ScE-14 Leskovik 5- ScE-05 Berat10- ScE-10 Elbasan15- ScE-15 Petrovac Mapping for PGA = 0.15 and 0.30g, g=9.81 m/s/s 15 Earthquake Scenarios For Return Periods: 50, 100, 200, 475, 1000, 5000 & Years 1- ScE-01 Shkodra 6- ScE-06 Vlora11- ScE-11 Diber 2- ScE-02 Lezhe 7- ScE-07 Himare12- ScE-12 Pogradec 3- ScE-03 Tirana 8- ScE-08 Tapeline13- ScE-13 Kukes 4- ScE-04 Durres 9- ScE-09 Saranda14- ScE-14 Leskovik 5- ScE-05 Berat10- ScE-10 Elbasan15- ScE-15 Petrovac Mapping for PGA = 0.15 and 0.30g, g=9.81 m/s/s

12 12 RP-200 Years Fig Years Return Period Scenario Earthquake Seismic Hazard Maps

13 13 Return Period, Years Return Period, Years

14 14

15 15 Phase I: Risk Assessment Elements for Disaster Management and Emergency Preparedness of Albania: - Completed Risk Assessment & Quantification of Elements for Disaster Management and Emergency Preparedness of Albania: - Completed Phase II: Disaster Planning Elements and Tools - Completed  Development of Disaster Information and Decision Support GIS system: - Completed  Development of National Disaster Plan – Underway  Testing of National Disaster Plan ame=Risk%20Assessment-Eng.pdf ame=Risk%20Assessment-Eng.pdf For more: ame=Risk%20Assessment-Eng.pdf ame=Risk%20Assessment-Eng.pdf


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