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Edited by Marion Jansen, Ralf Peters and José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.

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Presentation on theme: "Edited by Marion Jansen, Ralf Peters and José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs."— Presentation transcript:

1 Edited by Marion Jansen, Ralf Peters and José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs

2  Thematic edited volume;  Financed through EC-funded project: “Assessing and Addressing the Employment Effects of Trade”; ◦ Country level work in four countries: Bangladesh, Benin, Guatemala and Indonesia. ◦ Forthcoming research structured around three axes:  Agricultural trade and employment  Services trade and employment  Regional trade and employment

3  Three objectives : ◦ Take stock of existing evidence on trade and employment; ◦ Contribute to design of tools to generate evidence on employment effects of trade; ◦ Contribute to debate on coherent labour and trade policies

4 Six commissioned chapters:  New Evidence on Trade and Employment: An Overview Margaret McMillan and Iñigo Verduzco  Assessing the Impact of Trade on Employment Bill Gibson  Trade and the Informal Economy Anushree Sinha  Gender Aspects of Trade Günseli Berik  Trade Adjustment Costs and Assistance: The Labour Market Dynamics Joseph Francois, Marion Jansen and Ralf Peters  Trade Diversification: Drivers and Impacts Olivier Cadot, Céline Carrère and Vanessa Strauss-Kahn

5 Main findings:  Allocative efficiency depends on institutional settings (chapter 2);  Job creation in the exporting sector may be disappointing (chapter 2);  The informal economy cannot be ignored (chapter 4);  Trade does not necessarily reduce gender gaps (chapter 5);  Country specifics determine how and to which extent trade liberalization contributes to increased diversification (chapter 7). Taking stock of existing evidence

6 Export concentration: Theil Indices

7 Main messages:  Use economy-wide rather than partial equilibrium models (chapter 3);  Getting the micro-foundations right is important (chapter 3);  CGEs for developing countries should model the informal economy explicitly (chapter 4);  More emphasis should be given to employment effects at the occupational rather than industry level (chapter 2).  Standard CGE simulations generate information that can be useful to roughly assess labour adjustment costs to trade (chapter 6); Generating Facts: Providing Tools to Generate More Evidence

8 time Output Y0Y0 YTYT Y T,A Y(t) Expected long-run equilibrium without adjustment costs Expected long-run equilibrium With adjustment costs Allocative efficiency depends on adjustment process

9 Standard deviation of sector changes in employment (percentage)

10 Main findings:  Strong social protection systems are preferable to targeted adjustment assistance (chapter 6);  Governments have a role in helping firms to survive or grow … (chapter 7);  … in particular in the case of informal firms (chapter 4);  Gender aspects of trade need to be addressed through gender equity policies (chapter 5);  Education and skills policies prepare the ground for the development of new export products (chapter 7). Coherent policy making

11 Available at:

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