Presentation on theme: "World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster."— Presentation transcript:
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster Risk Management And Progress with WMO DRR Programme By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Division www.wmo.int WMO
Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Source: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 90 % of events 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Economic losses Loss of life Number of events
RA V Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Source: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 83% of events 18 % of casualties 79% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Economic losses Loss of life Number of events
Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Number of eventsLoss of life Economic Losses
Emerging Opportunities for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services …. Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! New paradigm in disaster risk management - Investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. –Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 by 168 countries (Kobe, Japan) Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!
Shift From Post Disaster Response to Ex Ante Investments in Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (Development Issue) Risk TransferRisk Assessment Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training National to Local Levels Alignment of Multi-sectoral coordination, planning, legislation, resources 2 1 4 3
Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise ! Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Strong Wind Water Resource Management People Agriculture Energy Urban areas Need for Multi-sectoral risk management Drought Transportation Aral Sea Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change! Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !
Understanding the Risks is Fundamental! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates Analysis and Tools for Emergency Management and Sectoral Planning Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping Impacts: population agricultural land urban grid Infrastructure Businesses Number of lives at risk $ at risk Destruction of buildings and infrastructure Reduction in crop yields Business interruption NMHS provide hazard data, statistical analysis and forecasts Need for Socio- economic impacts data
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html) Main Challenges: Modernisation of observation networks Data rescue Data management systems Maintaining standard hazard database and metadata Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling Over 70 % of NMHS globally, are challenged in delivering these services!
Marine Health (etc.)… Geological COMMUNITIES AT RISK hazard warning National Government (emergency systems) Hydrological Meteorological National Technical Services disaster response Many countries are still in response and relief mode! hazard warning Local government Disaster response hazard warning
Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up… Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database While casualties related to hydro- meteorological disasters are decreasing
Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 2 34
National Government DRR coordination mechanisms Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries feedback Community Prepared warnings feedback 2 4 3 5 5 4 4 5 Shift to Preparedness through Investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems ! Local Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 1 warnings
Guidelines on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation in Early Warning Systems Role of NMHS First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO in cooperation with Members and international agencies. Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles Synthesis of Good Practices and Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba ropical Cyclone Early Warning System France “Vigilance System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme
Focus: Planning, legislation and Institutional partnerships and coordination at national to local levels Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management agencies and National Metrological and Hydrological Services, Media, other relevant ministries Training Programme: Training on good practices and “Capacity development in Multi- Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation” Interactive session to assess national capacities, gaps, priorities Identification of opportunities for regional cooperation Outcomes are linked to development projects Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)
Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach Consideration for: Leveraging Resources and Capacities Cost-effectiveness Inter-operability Maintenance and sustainability
Climate information and forecasting tools provide unprecedented opportunities to support sectoral risk assessment and management! Agricultural productivity and food security Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Warning systems have focused on protection of lives BUT…
Advancements in climate modelling and forecasting provide unprecedented opportunities for Disaster Risk Management Season to year Next hour to 10 days Decade Long term climate change Short to medium term weather forecasts Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness International negotiations with national policy implications Climate change scenarios Decision-making Timelines Long-term strategic planning Infrastructures planning, retrofitting Land zoning Medium-term operational planning Risk assessment and management
Requirements of Financial Risk Transfer Markets For Meteorological and Climate Information What type of Financial tools? Which Risks?Who Could Benefit? Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other emerging products Government Companies Individuals Other Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Financial risks WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets- 2007/index_en.html
Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives: Information requirements (data and forecasts): –Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data –Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) –Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) –Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts –Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy) Technical support and Service delivery Meteorological Services Perspectives: Need for awareness raising among Met services Resources, ability and priorities to deliver “Commercial”,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Global Framework for Climate Services User interface in Disaster Risk Management Example of Climate Information users in DRM Their needs and requirements International Regional National Development Banks & Agencies Humanitarian Agencies Multinational Companies (Agriculture, energy, transport, reinsurance/finance, etc) Regional Development Banks Regional Economic groupings Regional DRM Agencies River basin organisations DRM Agencies Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Environment, Tourism, Water,etc Cities & Local Governments Private sector Public Mechanism for coordination and user interface ISDR UNDG IASC UNGPDRR Global Reports (GAR, HDR, etc) Regional DRR Platform Regional Cooperation Projects National DRM coordination mechanisms / Platforms (Multi- Sectoral) Sectors and national projects Global risk assessment Global climate data and analysis Climate outlooks Forecast information Regional risk analysis Regional outlooks and forecasts Regional data Risk assessments national local sectoral Early warnings Outlooks Data Climate Services Information System Observations & Monitoring Research, Modeling & Prédiction
1.Disaster Risk Management is a development issue 2.Capacity development of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming Key Messages:
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to …
DRR Programme’s Strategic Foundation WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners
WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction Approved by WMO Congress - XV To implement DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results: 1. Modernized NMHSs and observing networks. 2.Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. 3.Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. 4.Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. 5.Trained management and staff of NMHS 6.Enhanced ministerial and public awareness
WMO DRR Strategy Key Questions: Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda?
WMO Country-level DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) 139 countries participated 1. National policies and legislation 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications 3.Hazard databases 4.Forecasting and Warning Capacities 5.Human resources (technical, managerial) 6.Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders Assessed Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html
Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses Scope Number of surveys received Total number of countries % Response Global (WMO Members)139187 74% Developing countries8513762% Least Developed countries255050% Africa (RA I)285254% Asia (RA II)253474% South America (RA III)101283% Central and North America (RA IV)182282% South-West Pacific (RA V) 141974% Europe (RA VI)444892%
Country-Level Capacity Assessment (2006) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html Category Planning & Legislation Infrastructure: Observation Forecasting Telecom. Data, Analysis and Technical Capacities Partnerships & Concept of Operations % countries 1Need for development in all areas 12 2Need for improvements in all areas 42 3 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas 26 4 Self sufficient Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 20 Under estimated Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!
WMO DRR Strategy Key Questions: Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda and systematicall and sustainably develop their capacities?
WMO DRR Strategy: Engaging in National and Regional Development Projects with partners that influence National Programmes and Funding Partners Agency Type Coordinatio n National DRR Implementatio n Funding World Bank (GFDRR) Development XX ISDR Coordination XX UNDP Development X XX WFP, FAO Agriculture XXX UN- OCHA, IFRC Humanitarian XX Donors (EC, etc) Donor X Regional Centers and agencies X X X
Criteria for DRR Project Development (1) Alignment with WMO Strategic priorities in DRR (2)Built on priorities, and needs of regions and countries (3)Built on partnerships and integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and partners’ expertise and resources) (4)Result-based approach (Deliverables, timelines, evaluation) (5)Must be scalable (6)Plans for sustainability of capacities overtime (6)Ensure end-to-end solutions leading to better decision-making (7)Extra-Budgetary resource mobilization strategy for implementation (if needed)
1) Develop training materials 2) Link training workshops to regional and national development projects Two Tier approach to training and capacity development
Monitoring and Evaluation of national practices Identification and Documentation of latest technologies, Good Practices and learning Lessons Development of Guidelines and standards National and Regional training and development Projects Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects Linking Training systematically with Institutional Capacities development projects
WMO Guidelines and training in DRR Available for Early Warning Systems - –First training materials on institutional aspects will be published in 2009(with Springer Verlag)- Joint training between NMHS and DRM –Various technical training available through WMO Programmes and Commissions Standardization of Hazard data, metadata and analysis tools (Technical Commissions) –Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway through Technical Commissions Training materials for NMHS in support of financial risk transfer markets –Experiences of several National Meteorological Services will be documented in 2010 in light of several pilots facilitated through World Bank, WFP and other.
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO South East Europe Central Asia and Caucasus South East Asia IGAD SADC Central America and Caribbean
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects 200720092008 2010 2011 (Africa) (Asia) (South America) (North America & Carribeans) (Asia-Pacific) (Europe) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC)
South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme World Bank / ISDR / WMO / UNDP Programme – initiated in 2007 Three Components: –Risk Management Capacities –Hydro meteorological services –Catastrophe Insurance facility and financial risk transfer Phase I: Assessments Detailed national assessment Funded by GFDRR 11 countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Slovenia, Turkey
SEEDRMAP Phase II EC Enlargement Project Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in SEE (EC DG Enlargement 2 M € funding) 8 Countries Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Turkey –UNDP Component 1: Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South East Europe –WMO Component 2: Regional Cooperation in South East Europe for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction World Bank National DRR Projects –Albania, Croatia, Moldova
SEEDRMAP Phase II EC Enlargement Project To facilitate the establishment of a Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Western Balkans and Turkey. To support development of national platforms To increase the availability of reliable regional level data that is crucial for Vulnerability Assessment, Disaster Planning and Early Warning. To enhance contribution of NMHS to DRR at national and regional levels.
Expected Outcomes of the SEE Project National experts are trained in: –Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems –Flood hazard data, metadata and mapping tools –Drought hazard data, metadata and mapping tools National proposals prepared for: –development of Early Warning Systems –development of risk assessment capacities Proposal for concrete initiatives for regional cooperation in SEE region WITH UNDP
Costa Rica Nicaragu a El Salvador Pilot Project on End-to-End Early Warning Systems for Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Central America Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua Objectives: Development on end-to-end EWS –Operationally linking NMHS capacities to support community emergency preparedness and action –Development and demonstration of inter-agency Concept of Operations among national to local partners Hazards: Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods Partners: –National: NMHS, Disaster Risk Managment Agencies, Red cross –International/Regional: World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, OCHA, WFP, ISDR –Technical: NOAA, NASA Servir (TBC) Status: Assessments completed and Detailed proposal developed with partners and submitted for funding to GFDRR
Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR Burundi Rwanda Sudan Eritria Ethiopia Djibouti Somalia Kenya Uganda Tanzania Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: Partners –National: NMHS, sectors representatives –International/Regional: World Bank, –Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) Status: Project was launch on June 2009
Good Practices in EWS Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (Mega City) Governance : (mega) city-level. Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.
For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Division Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters Thank You