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Capacity Building Research, Modelling and Prediction Climate Services Information System Observing and Monitoring User Interface User GFCS – DWD‘s first.

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Presentation on theme: "Capacity Building Research, Modelling and Prediction Climate Services Information System Observing and Monitoring User Interface User GFCS – DWD‘s first."— Presentation transcript:

1 Capacity Building Research, Modelling and Prediction Climate Services Information System Observing and Monitoring User Interface User GFCS – DWD‘s first experience Dr. Paul Becker (Vice-President, DWD) through Dr. Andreas Becker (Head GPCC and Precipitation Monitoring Unit, DWD) Port of Spain, Trinidad, May 29, 2013

2 A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013 Matured know-how in weather and climate based on  2360 staff positions (FTEs)  19 advisory centres including 6 large branch offices  1 meteorological training centre  2 meteorological observatories  9 radiosonde land stations, 4 on ships  18 weather radars, 4 wind profilers  181 primary weather stations (74 staffed)  1795 secondary weather stations  17 automated weather stations on ships  about 840 ships with voluntary observers (VOS)  48 stations measuring radioactivity in the air (2011)  Strong national presence of DWD by running the most dense and one of the most reliable observastional networks in Europe: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) / German Met Service 900 km 600 km

3 DWD in figures Mio € EUMETSAT 28,7 Mio € Contributions to international Organisations in 2010 EZMW 8,6 Mio € WMO 3,9 Mio € EUMETNET 1,3 Mio € Revenue 59 Mio €  Budget approx. 215 Mio € Funding 156 Mio € A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

4 Research, Modelling and PredictionObserving and Monitoring User Inferface National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s capabilities Climate Services Information System ( ) Capacity Building ( ) New institutional structure necessary? New approach to service delivery necessary? User Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

5 National implementation of GFCS – The process / DWD‘s abilities No! Among other NMHS’s DWD is a Cat-4 Climate Service provider! Maybe! But let’s improve customer orientation of existing delivery mechanisms first before re-inventing wheels. GFCS mechanisms should be instrumental for this process! Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

6 Sectors National implementation of GFCS – The German Adaptation Strategy Biological diversity Financial services Trade and industry Human health Energy industry Agriculture Tourism Soil Fishery Forestry Transport, Infrastructure Water regime management Urban (spatial) development Civil protection Building Coastal and marine protection Cross sectoral Challenge: combining the climate/weather knowledge with sector specific knowledge (impact models) identifying interfaces Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

7 The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) contributes to … Urban Climate Agrometeorology Fields of expertise of the Business Area Climate and Environment Hydrometeorology Climate Monitoring (Analysis of extreme values) Utilization and modelling of climate projections Human Biometeorology A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

8 Climate Monitoring  National climate reference network  Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly global precipitation climatology and monthly and daily precipitation analyses for the Earth's land surfaces.  WMO GCOS Reference Upper Air Network: GRUAN Lead Centre in Lindenberg  WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW): Global Station Zugspitze- Hohenpeißenberg  RCC on Climate Monitoring for RA VI  EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility – Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF)

9 National Climate Data Centre Monitoring of the Atmosphere  Integration of historical climate data  Complete inventorisation of documents and data which contain ancient climate data  Collection and gathering of all available information in a archive in Leipzig Projekt KLIDADIGI Start: September 2005  HISTOR - digitalisation of historical ship records (Hamburg) A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

10 The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) - The GPCC database holds precipitation observation data from more than stations in more than 190 countries and regions - Monthly precipitation analyses for the earth‘s landsurface based on the largest monthly in situ precipitation data- base of the world; GPCC-Homepage: A German contribution to Climate Monitoring and Research in context of GCOS, WCRP, and WMO -> free access to the gridded GPCC analysis products A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

11 Data Coverage of GPCC archive shown in terms of global distribution of stations with records exceeding10 years and thus eligible for the full data product Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Over 67,200 stations A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

12 La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions. Year 2011 Precipitation Anomaly [mm/month] A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

13 La Niña Year 2011 featured strong anomalies in annual totals as well as frequent extreme events for certain periods and regions. Correlation ENSO Index (SOI) vs. GPCC Precipitation A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

14 Seasonal forecast (EUROSIP) Seasonal forecast (EUROSIP) Decadal forecast (MIKLIP) Decadal forecast (MIKLIP) Long-term Climate projections Long-term Climate projections Operational global climate forecast and projection A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

15 COSMO-CLM: Regional Climate Modeling CLM-Community is an open international network of scientists, who accepted the CLM Community agreement in all of its details.CLM Community agreement Currently 42 member institutions; more information: A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

16 Downscaling of Climate Projections (500 m – 50 m) (50 km – 10 km) (~ 150 km) A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

17 Example: Change in number of summer days 1961 – 2100 in Frankfurt/Main MUKLIMO_3 forced by CLM (A1B) Urban Climate Change A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

18 Climate Service: German Heat Health Warning System  More than 7000 casualties due to 2003 heat wave in Germany  Increasing probability of similar event in the future according to IPCC CC adaptation accomplished  two warning levels  thermo-physiologically relevant (comprehensive heat budget model for human body following an adaptability approach)  Lead time: 7 days  spatial resolution: 415 warning districts  additional information on in-door temperature enhance the modelling of the night-time periods A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

19 GFCS Sector Water  DWD provides core hydrometeorological information to federal agencies in charge for flood protection and water resources management.  Example CC adaptation issue: More frequent heavy precipitation ●Expert analysis of precipitation records and downscaling of climate projection reveals a significant trend to more frequent heavy precipitation events. ●New run-off projections demand adaptive measures of municipalities and counties to prepare and resize run-off systems. ●DWD issues and updates an atlas of heavy precipitation. The climatology encompasses intensity-duration curves and return periods being crucial information for municpalities and counties to properly re-size their channel (run-off) systems. ●In an unique and unprecedented effort, DWD currently performs a decadal re-analysis of the entire homogenized radar data archive, to ultimately enhance the temporal resolution of heavy precipitation climatologies A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

20 Our Services and Customers in the water sector  Services:  Customers: ●Street building bureaus ●Energy Supplier ●Water management and run-off agencies ●Planning Bureaus ●Universities ●Federal-, State- and County Agencies ●High resolution precipitation data sets ●Site specific precipitation statistics ●radar based quantiative precipitation analysis ●Data on evaporation related to water sheds or other areas of interest ●Particular assessments and consulting A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

21 KLIWAS – Impacts of climate change on waterways and navigation – options to adapt Part of the German Adaptation Strategy Prepare waterborne transportation for the impacts of climate change: 1.Acquisition and regionalization of global and regional climate projections (ensemble approach) 2.Assessing the vulnerability of navigation (incl. an estimation of the future costs of this particular transport mode) 3.Identification of options for action and development of sector-specific adaptation strategies (waterways, coasts, and estuaries) B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam 21 of 60

22 Climate Service to protect river borne transport caps Change in transport capacity of fleet (Example: Rotterdam – Oberrhein „low""high"„low""high" Source: Holtmann et al., 2011 Rhein River Run-off Scenario Fleet Scenario Change in transport capacity Compared to (Mt / a) A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

23 DWD‘s regional Climate / Weather bureaus User / Service provider interaction User Interface Very often the development of suitable adaptation measures requires an intensive consulting activity In Germany decisions on climate issues are commonly made on a sub-national level Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

24 Sector agriculture / DWD‘s German Climate Atlas German Climate Portal Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

25 Climate Services for the Länder User Interface German Climate Portal Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

26 Activities:  Analysis of Observations (Climate- and water body monitoring)  Assessment (and downscaling) of available regional climate scenarios  Working Groups, Workshops und Symposia A joint project of DWD and the southern Federal States, Bavaria(Bayern), Baden-Württemberg, (since 1999), and Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) (since 2007) KLIWA (German Abbrev.) - Climate Change and Adaptation of Water Management Interdisciplinary Cooperation

27 KLIWA: Consideration of a climate change factor in new structural flood protection measures Example dam: Construct as planned, but prepare for future increase of dam height B. Rudolf, A. Gratzki, G. Malitz, and A. Becker, Water related services and developments at DWD; EGU TM on Flood and Climate, 4 October 2012, Potsdam 27 of 60

28 User Interface German Climate Portal Forum Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

29 Setting-up and operation of an useful meteorological observation system a suitable data management system reliable user support and consultancy climate monitoring and modelling a long-term archive for meteorological and climatological data Capacity Building Existing demand for climate services in developing countries DWD support for Regional Science Service Centres (RSSC) for climate change and adaptive land management in Africa A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

30 SASSCAL: Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) a Regional Science Service Centre (RSSC) in Southern Africa  an Initiative of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South- Africa, Zambia and Germany  Goal: to minimize climate change impacts on agriculture and water resources in Southern Africa  Three pillars: „Research, Capacity buildung and regional consultance and Information, product service  Finance by German minitstry of research  A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

31 Capacity Building: SASSCAL: proposed DWD Contributions  Satellite based climate analysis  Support development of suitable climate monitoring products  Support management of historical and recent climate data  Development of a user friendly climate data management system to support operation of an RSSC and the national met service  Support built up of a quality controlled and documented climate data archive to serve a basis for independent regional climate research activities.  Pursue concepts of data rescue and archival with regard to regional data in close cooperation with national met services of the targe region.  Provision of climate data for other SASSCAL activities in the field of land use, farming through development of suitable access-tools SASSCAL could be representative for similar activities adopted to the specific needs of the Caribbean countries A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

32 National implementation of GFCS The DWD is best suited to serve and maintain the capabilities required for the national implementation of the GFCS. Rather than creating a new institutional structure on national level, the outstanding challenges are: to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions to involve the relevant stakeholders / to identify interfaces to integrate the existing initiatives, e.g. the German Adaptation Strategy A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

33 National implementation of GFCS / Spread the Word to spread the news on the GFCS: Answer What and Why questions DWD supports suitable webinars hosts GFCS Sector specific national information and user workshops Installation of sector specific user forums corresponding to the major theme of the annual DWD climate symposium A: Becker, GFCS - DWD’s 1 st experiencesRegional WS on CS at National Level for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013

34 Results Wrap Up 1.: DWD provides climate services on all time scales for a broad spectrum of users. Our climate services encompass all GFCS components, from climate monitoring to qualified consultancy based on state-of-the-art climate modeling and research. DWD’s climate services are provided at 24/7 on every day of the year. 3.: DWD is actively networking with its national and international partners in the area of climate services. This is crucial also to avoid duplication of efforts. 2.: DWD investigates climate change impacts in diverse sectors by making use of climate monitoring, research, modelling and projection. In Germany, the scientific and technical capabilities and the infrastructure of DWD are the backbone for both, the aspired climate service components of GFCS on international scale and „downstream“ applications on the national scale.

35 Sea-level rise poses a boundary condition that is already regional at the climate change forcing level 35 DWD is partner of provider of this climate information (DKRZ, German Climate Research Centre, Hamburg Outlook

36 Capacity Building Research, Modelling and Prediction Climate Services Information System Observing and Monitoring User Interface User Many thanks! Andreas for Paul Becker Port of Spain, Trinidad, 29 May 2013


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