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PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape August 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape August 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape August 2010

2 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Important Legal Information This information is not intended to be a recommendation or opinion regarding the equity securities of the referenced companies. This material may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (CSSU). This material has been prepared by the Chief Investment Officer of the Private Banking USA business of CSSU and not by the CSSU research department. It is provided for informational purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned. The material is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is intended only to provide observations and views of the Chief Investment Officer, which may be different from, or inconsistent with, the observations and views of CSSU research department analysts, CSSU traders or sales personnel, or the proprietary positions of CSSU. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the Chief Investment Officer at any time without notice. Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding future performance. The material set forth above has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable but CSSU does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions or changes in market factors. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view of a particular market. CSSU may, from time to time, participate or invest in transactions with issuers of securities that participate in the markets referred to herein, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or derivatives thereof. The material does not constitute objective research under FSA rules. The most recent CSSU research on any company mentioned is available to online subscribers at CSSU does not provide legal or tax advice. Consult your personal accounting, legal, and tax advisor with respect to any legal or tax implications.www.credit-suisse.com/pbclientview The Private Banking USA business in CSSU is a regulated broker dealer and investment advisor. It is not a chartered bank, trust company or depository institution. It is not authorized to accept deposits or provide corporate trust services and it is not licensed or regulated by any state or federal banking authority. Internal Revenue Service Circular 230 Disclosure: As provided for in Treasury regulations, advice (if any) relating to federal taxes that is contained in this communication (including attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (1) avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code or (2) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any plan or arrangement addressed herein. ©2010 Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC. All rights reserved.

3 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Table of Contents Executive Summary Guideline Allocations Market/Strategy Summary Key Focus: – Credit – Earnings Global Markets Recap Market and Economic Outlook

4 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Executive Summary

5 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Executive Summary

6 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Guideline Allocations & Tactical Overweights

7 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Guideline Allocations Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

8 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Market / Strategy Summary

9 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. – Data point to decelerating, positive growth after strong rebound Growth momentum to slow somewhat, markets to focus on extent of growth moderation Deficit reductions to have small growth impact, help limit rise in govt bond yields US consumer remains tentative amid uncertain jobs outlook, recovery to be slow – Equity: neutral near-term (weak sentiment), positive long-term (valuations) Investors cautious; valuations, fundamentals and cash support long term upside Favor quality growth and high dividend, themes: emerging consumer, infrastructure Overweight US, Asia ex-Japan (+ China & Korea, India: cautious) and Brazil – US Treasuries supported by weak sentiment, low inflation expectations Rates likely stay low for longer, yields to rise only gradually (10Yr near 3.0% end-10) Credit spreads may tighten further (stretch for yield amid low rates); credit selection key – Dovish Fed, lower US yields removes some dollar support – USD neutral Bearish euro sentiment has likely peaked, but still little support given regional concerns UK inflation likely pushes BOE to hike rates before Fed, giving support to pound – Commodities: expect cyclical sectors (oil & base metals) to outperform Gold supported near term (low rates, weaker USD), longer term underperform Agriculture (wheat) prices jump on supply crunch; strong demand = long term upside Market/Strategy Summary – August 2010 Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

10 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Purchasing Managers Index (Above 50 = Expansion) Indicators point to decelerating, positive growth after rebound Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse IDC

11 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US GDP Component Contribution (with Real GDP growth Q/Q) Q2: Investment +2.1%, Consumer +1.2%, Net Exports -2.9% Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

12 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. July price change in local currency All major equity indices gained in July led by Brazil and China Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

13 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. MSCI World Forward P/E Valuations attractive at current market levels Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Avg: 17

14 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Market Expectations of Fed Rate Moves in next 12 months Investors have lowered expectations for fed hikes in next year Source: Bloomberg 19 bps

15 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. 10Yr Treasury Yield less 10 Yr Treasury Inflation-linked Yield (TIPS implied) inflation expectations lower, above crisis lows Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 1.79% 0.05%

16 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US 2Yr Yield Premium and EUR/USD Exchange Rate Yield spread has turned in favor of euro (2Yr +24 bps vs US) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

17 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. DJUBS Commodity Index and US Industrial Production Commodity prices have lagged upturn in industrial production Source: Bloomberg

18 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Dashboard 2010 Key Focus: Credit

19 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Credit Lending to small businesses showing slow improvement Corporate borrowing costs (bond yields) at historic lows TED spread points to lower levels of perceived credit risk US consumers continue to reduce debt levels Credit issues in peripheral Europe have eased, remain contained Consumer Jobs growth needed to sustain US incomes and spending China Chinas inflation contained as growth moderates at high levels Commodities Precious metals brief outperformance reversed as oil & base metals gain Cash Investor cash remains elevated, fuel for an equity rally Cash on corporate balance sheets at record levels, may be deployed Dashboard Key Focus: Credit Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

20 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. % of small businesses reporting credit harder to get vs 3 months ago Lending to small businesses showing slow improvement Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream via Credit Suisse IDC 2010 Dashboard: Credit

21 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. LUCI Index A-Rated Corporate Bond Yield in % Corporate borrowing costs (yields) at historic lows Source: Credit Suisse LUCI Workbench 2010 Dashboard: Credit Click to Print / View PowerPoint Avg: 5.5%

22 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. TED Spread (US 3Mo Treasury less 3 Mo LIBOR) TED spread points to lower levels of perceived credit risk Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Credit Click to Print / View PowerPoint

23 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information Jun-02Jun-04Jun-06Jun-08Jun-10* US Consumer Credit Outstanding (USD Bln ) US consumers continue to reduce debt levels Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Credit Click to Print / View PowerPoint -6.3% * Latest data available

24 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Sovereign CDS Spreads (cost of insuring against default) Credit issues in peripheral Europe have eased; remain contained Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2010 Dashboard: Credit Click to Print / View PowerPoint

25 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Personal Income Y-o-Y % Change Job growth is needed to support US incomes and spending Source: Bloomberg 2010 Dashboard: Consumer Jun-00Jun-02Jun-04Jun-06Jun-08Jun-10* *Latest data available

26 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. China CPI Inflation and Industrial Production (Y-o-Y % Change) Chinas inflation contained as growth moderates at high levels Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg 2010 Dashboard: China *Latest data available *

27 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information YTD Price Changed (Indexed to 1.0 at 12/31/09) Precious metals May/June outperformance has reversed Source: Bloomberg 2010 Dashboard: Commodities

28 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US Money Market Mutual Fund Assets in $ Trillion Investor cash remains elevated, fuel for an equity rally Source: Datastream, ICI 2010 Dashboard: Cash $2.8T *Latest data available

29 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 Co. Cash & Equivalents ($ billions) Cash on corporate balance at record levels, may be deployed Source: Standard & Poors 2010 Dashboard: Cash *Through Q1, latest data available

30 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Key Focus: Earnings

31 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. All major global regions expected to post positive year-over-year earnings growth for 2010 and 2011 Rising US earnings expectations push 2010 EPS forecast to $83 (+36% vs 2009) up from $77 in January – Seven of ten S&P 500 sectors have seen 2010 earnings upgrades since Q2 reports began, led by utilities (+3.6%), industrials (+3.4%), energy and discretionary (+3.3%) – 2010 forecast cuts for staples, materials and telecomm – Q2 earnings growth now forecast +36% (vs 26% on Jun.30) as earnings reports surprise to upside at high rate (77%); 63% of companies beat sales forecasts Asia ex-Japan 2010 earnings growth now expected at +37% (up from 29% in January), following a strong 2009 (+17%) Europe (DJ Euro Stoxx) earnings growth expectations have remained relatively flat at about 33% vs 2009 drop of 28% Key Focus: Earnings Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

32 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Earnings Snapshot: Projected EPS Growth 2010 & 2011 Source: Credit Suisse, Thomson Reuters Datastream, I/B/E/S KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS

33 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P EPS Forecast 2010 earnings expectations +8.4% since January Source: Credit Suisse Quantitative Research, IBES EPS: Consensus Earnings Per Share KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS

34 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. % Change in 2010 EPS Estimate 6/30/10 to 8/9/ E EPS +2% since June 30, upward revisions broad based Source: Credit Suisse Quantitative Research KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS

35 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 Sector EPS Forecasts 2010 & 2011 (Y-o-Y % Growth) Growth expected for all sectors in 2010 & 2011 Source: I/B/E/S KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS

36 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 Q EPS Forecast (% change from previous year) Q2 earnings expectations rose 500 bps in July (peak of reports) Source: Credit Suisse Quantitative Research, IBES KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS

37 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Q2-10 S&P 500 Sales & Earnings Reports vs Expectations Q2 earnings and sales reports above expectations Source: Bloomberg KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS AboveMatchBelow Earnings77%8%15% Sales63% 0%37% 89% of companies have reported as of Aug 9

38 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 EPS Forecasts & Valuations Consensus EPS of $83.13 supports higher market levels Source: Credit Suisse Quantitative Research, IBES EPS: Consensus Earnings Per Share KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS

39 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. MSCI Asia ex-Japan 2010 EPS Growth Estimate (Y-o-Y) Asia ex-Japan should see another strong year of growth Source: IBES KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS 2009E: +17%

40 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. DJ Euro Stoxx Earnings Growth Forecast (Y-o-Y) DJ Euro Stoxx growth to improve in 2010 after weak 2009 Source: IBES KEY FOCUS: EARNINGS 2009E: -28%

41 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Global Markets Recap

42 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Markets Recap Equities After a difficult first half equity markets posted a broad based rally in July; all major global regions and sectors gained. A strong start to Q2 earnings season propelled US markets - S&P % in July, near break even for the year. Brazil (+10.8%) and China (+10.0%) led Julys gains, both join most markets in negative territory YTD. July saw reversal from H1 sector trends as cyclical sectors (industrials, basic materials) outperformed defensive sectors (health care, staples). YTD, industrials and consumer discretionary are top performers while sectors with regulatory overhang (health care, energy) lag. Little size and style differentiation in the US in July – all categories rose about 7%. YTD small cap has outperformed large, value over growth. Currency The dollar weakened against all major currencies in July as US rate advantaged faded. USD lost 6% vs euro after gaining 17% in H1. Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

43 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Markets Recap Interest Rates & Fixed Income US Treasury yields moved lower as inflation and rate hike expectations fell. US 10Yr Treasury ended July at 2.91%, 2Yr at 0.56%. 10Yr govt yields rose in euro area (to 2.8%) and UK (to 3.4%). Longer dated fixed income indices outperforming in 2010 as rates fall - US Treasury long term index +13%. Credit has also performed well due to lower rates, spreads mostly wider YTD. Yields on US tax-exempt bonds above Treasurys at longer dated maturities. Commodities Precious metal prices suffered in July as safe haven demand dried up (gold - 5.5%, silver -5.8%) while all other segments gained. Oil +4.4% to $79, copper +12.6% to $3.31, wheat +25% on supply concerns. Volatility As equity markets rallied the Volatility Index (VIX) fell and ended July at a 3 month low at Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

44 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL MARKETS Total Return Through 07/30/10 Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream

45 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS YTD Price change in local currency (YTD through 7/30/10) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

46 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL SECTORS (S&P 1200 Global) Price change in USD (YTD Through 07/30/10) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

47 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US EQUITY RETURNS (Size & Style) Total Return Through 07/30/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg

48 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US SECTORS (S&P 500) Price Change Through 07/30/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

49 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CURRENCY % Change As of 07/30/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

50 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL INTEREST RATES 10Y Govt Bond Yield (12/31/09 & 07/30/10) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

51 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US FIXED INCOME & RATES As of 07/30/10 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

52 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CREDIT Spread to 10-Yr Treasury As of 07/30/10 (Basis Points) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

53 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. US FIXED INCOME YTD Total Return YTD through 7/30/10 Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream

54 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. NON-US FIXED INCOME YTD Total Return YTD through 7/30/10 (In Local Currency) Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream

55 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. COMMODITIES % Change As of 07/30/10 (Spot Price) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

56 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. HEDGE FUNDS & PRIVATE EQUITY Source: Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, Cambridge Associates, Thomson Reuters Datastream

57 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

58 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Looking Ahead – 2010 Market & Economic Outlook

59 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Market & Economic Outlook Summary Global growth should continue at slower pace as stimulus wanes; double dip unlikely. H likely to see decelerating growth with slight growth drag from fiscal tightening offset by strong global trade activity. Asia will remain global driver as the US and Europe move along slow upward paths. Inflation muted, deflation unlikely given proactive policy responses. Equity valuations attractive at current market levels. Positive earnings growth and strong corporate balance sheets supportive of long-term upside, weak sentiment may keep levels neutral near term. Focus on exporters, fiscal flexibility and natural resources (Germany, Scandinavia, Asia). Overweight US, emerging Asia (Korea & China) and Brazil; underweight euro area and emerging Europe. US: focus on quality growth and high dividend. Overweight technology (upgrade cycle, business investment) and consumer staples (valuation & cash flows, focus on strong brand names). Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

60 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Market & Economic Outlook Summary US government bonds well supported by weak sentiment and low inflation expectations, yields to rise only gradually. Expect US 10Yr Treasury yield near 3% end-10. Fed rate hike unlikely until ECB not expected to raise rates until 2011; BOE likely +50 bps in Q4 amid higher inflation. Credit spreads may tighten further as investors reach for yield in low rate environment, higher beta and longer duration may see increased demand. We highlight importance of careful credit selection. With Fed expected to remain on hold US has lost yield spread advantage vs euro. Bearish euro sentiment has likely peaked, but still little support given regional concerns. Positive near term outlook for AUD and CAD due to higher rates, strong growth and higher commodity prices. Global recovery supportive for EM currencies. Cyclical commodity sectors (oil and base metals) expected to outperform as market focus turns to supply/demand fundamentals; safe haven demand for gold is drying up. Supply concerns drive near term agriculture gains; growing demand (fuel, food, feed) supportive of long term upside. Source: Credit Suisse Investment Strategy & Advisory

61 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Real GDP Growth Source: Credit Suisse estimates

62 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Healthy growth outlook led by emerging markets & US 2010 and 2011 Real GDP Growth Forecasts (Y-o-Y) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

63 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. GLOBAL EQUITIES OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

64 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. Global Equities Snapshot (As of 07/30/10) Source: I/B/E/S, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg

65 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. EQUITY INDEX FORECASTS Source: Credit Suisse estimates

66 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 SECTOR OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

67 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. S&P 500 Sector Snapshot (As of 07/30/10) Source: I/B/E/S, Thomson Reuters Datastream

68 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. HEDGE FUND & PRIVATE EQUITY OUTLOOK Through June, 2010 (most recent data available) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

69 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. POLICY RATE OUTLOOK Government Policy Rates (%) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

70 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK 10-Yr Government Bond Yield Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates

71 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

72 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK Preferred Maturities (In Years) Source: Credit Suisse estimates

73 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CURRENCY OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse estimates

74 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. CURRENCY FORECASTS Source: Credit Suisse estimates

75 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. COMMODITIES OUTLOOK Source: Credit Suisse

76 The Investment Landscape – August 2010 This document is not complete without attached Important Legal Information. COMMODITIES FORECASTS Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Credit Suisse estimates

77 PB Americas The Investment Landscape – August 2010 Private Banking Americas Investment Strategy & Advisory Group The Investment Landscape


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