Presentation on theme: "Technology and BE Session-11&12. Waves of Innovation Technology as substitute of inputs Malthus theory ignored tech Kondratiev and Schumpeter- 1782-1845-"— Presentation transcript:
Waves of Innovation Technology as substitute of inputs Malthus theory ignored tech Kondratiev and Schumpeter- 1782-1845- Steam power and textile, 1845-1892- Railroad, iron coal construction, 1892-1948- Electric power, automobiles, chemicals and steel, !948-present-Semicunductor, electronic aerospace, petro-chemical and pharmaceuticals etc. Change is not gentle but like series of explosions. Innovation industry lead the economy, pioneers followed by imitators, crowed, and creative destruction starts – new innovation is needed.
Alternatives Saturation in industry and then export of jobs. Technological Pessimists- club of Rome-1972 Tech optimists- Kahn, Herman and Fuller Pessimists- Extrapolated population, resources, pollution, agriculture and industrial output to the end of next century- interdependent model- crisis can be averted only if Zero population growth is achieved. Criticism- data is not fully developed, based on non- renewable resources, less space for tech development, socio-psychological considerations are ignored, world is treated as whole and not in political and economic entities.
Continue Technological Optimism- based on trend extrapolation, scenario-writing and simple intuition. New crisis and unexpected events may divert trend and alter expectations- following trend are likely to occur- 15-514. Post industrial society-Bell- Different from industrial society in five ways- 15-514-5. May lead to socio-cultural strife and require collective regulation Criticize both pessimistic and optimistic views.
Continue Guider extends Bell’s vision- powers of mind, wealth in the form of ideas and tech Chips where material cost of production constitutes only 2%- main valuable part is idea and design.
Tech Forecasting 25% of existing tech replaced every year. So managers will have to cope with change through trends, expert opinion and by creating alternative scenario. Trend is OK so long future resembles the past and interaction Experts- They too make mistakes- like Thomas Edition’s lamp Alternative scenario- Immediate, middle range and long range scenario- like Shell Oil. Information flow is immense manager must know to select and use.
Next Wave of Innovation Artificial intelligence, Genetic engineering, bio-electricity, laser, robotics, digital electronics, fiber optics, microwaves, satellites, solar energy, superconductors etc.
Obstacle in adopting new tech Difference between invention and innovation Artificial Intelligence:- Performance disappointing, many companies has closed down and sales which are expected to be billion $ could not exceed 600million. Allow computer to mimic human being- as alternative to human reasoning. Example software expert system. Problem with AI is that researchers lack sense of market.
Continue Genetic Engineering:- Sales are more than 1 billion $. In spite of heavy research expenditure very few drugs could become commercially successful. Most still developing product in Lab. So many regulators and guidelines unclear. Monsanto- BHG hormone a protein increase milk yield Monsanto herbicide and pesticide for cotton and soybean. Pesticide resistance crop rather than pest resistant.
Continue Why Technologies fail;- Because of so many uncertainties are attached to new tech. Role of customers, uncertain govt. support, striving for constant innovation. Tech push and market pull factors- 15-4 Japanese innovation style- 15-5