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PEREKONOMIAN EMPAT SEKTOR. Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts  Open and Closed Economies  A closed economy is one that does not interact with.

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Presentation on theme: "PEREKONOMIAN EMPAT SEKTOR. Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts  Open and Closed Economies  A closed economy is one that does not interact with."— Presentation transcript:

1 PEREKONOMIAN EMPAT SEKTOR

2 Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts  Open and Closed Economies  A closed economy is one that does not interact with other economies in the world. There are no exports, no imports, and no capital flows.  An open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world.

3 Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts  An Open Economy  An open economy interacts with other countries in two ways. It buys and sells goods and services in world product markets. It buys and sells capital assets in world financial markets.

4 THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS AND CAPITAL  An Open Economy  The United States is a very large and open economy— it imports and exports huge quantities of goods and services.  Over the past four decades, international trade and finance have become increasingly important.

5 The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports  Exports are goods and services that are produced domestically and sold abroad.  Imports are goods and services that are produced abroad and sold domestically.

6 The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports  Net exports (NX) are the value of a nation’s exports minus the value of its imports.  Net exports are also called the trade balance.

7 The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports  A trade deficit is a situation in which net exports (NX) are negative.  Imports > Exports  A trade surplus is a situation in which net exports (NX) are positive.  Exports > Imports  Balanced trade refers to when net exports are zero—exports and imports are exactly equal.

8 The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports  Factors That Affect Net Exports  The tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods.  The prices of goods at home and abroad.  The exchange rates at which people can use domestic currency to buy foreign currencies.

9 The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports  Factors That Affect Net Exports  The incomes of consumers at home and abroad.  The costs of transporting goods from country to country.  The policies of the government toward international trade.

10 Figure 1 The Internationalization of the U.S. Economy Percent of GDP Exports Imports Copyright © 2004 South-Western

11 The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow  Net capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners.  A U.S. resident buys stock in the Toyota corporation and a Mexican buys stock in the Ford Motor corporation.

12 The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow  When a U.S. resident buys stock in Telmex, the Mexican phone company, the purchase raises U.S. net capital outflow.  When a Japanese residents buys a bond issued by the U.S. government, the purchase reduces the U.S. net capital outflow.

13 The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow  Variables that Influence Net Capital Outflow  The real interest rates being paid on foreign assets.  The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets.  The perceived economic and political risks of holding assets abroad.  The government policies that affect foreign ownership of domestic assets.

14 The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital Outflow  Net exports (NX) and net capital outflow (NCO) are closely linked.  For an economy as a whole, NX and NCO must balance each other so that: NCO = NX  This holds true because every transaction that affects one side must also affect the other side by the same amount.

15 Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the International Flows  Net exports is a component of GDP: Y = C + I + G + NX  National saving is the income of the nation that is left after paying for current consumption and government purchases: Y - C - G = I + NX

16 Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the International Flows  National saving (S) equals Y - C - G so: S = I + NX or Saving Domestic Investment Net Capital Outflow =+ SI NCO =+

17 Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP (a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP) 2000 Domestic investment National saving Copyright © 2004 South-Western

18 Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP 4 –4 –3 –2 – Net capital outflow (b) Net Capital Outflow (as a percentage of GDP) Copyright © 2004 South-Western

19 THE PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: REAL AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES  International transactions are influenced by international prices.  The two most important international prices are the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate.

20 Nominal Exchange Rates  The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another.

21 Nominal Exchange Rates  The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another.

22 Nominal Exchange Rates  The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two ways:  In units of foreign currency per one U.S. dollar.  And in units of U.S. dollars per one unit of the foreign currency.

23 Nominal Exchange Rates  Assume the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar is 80 yen to one dollar.  One U.S. dollar trades for 80 yen.  One yen trades for 1/80 (= ) of a dollar.

24 Nominal Exchange Rates  Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.  Depreciation refers to a decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.

25 Nominal Exchange Rates  If a dollar buys more foreign currency, there is an appreciation of the dollar.  If it buys less there is a depreciation of the dollar.

26 Real Exchange Rates  The real exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another.

27 Real Exchange Rates  The real exchange rate compares the prices of domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic economy.  If a case of German beer is twice as expensive as American beer, the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of German beer per case of American beer.

28 Real Exchange Rates  The real exchange rate depends on the nominal exchange rate and the prices of goods in the two countries measured in local currencies.

29 Real Exchange Rates  The real exchange rate is a key determinant of how much a country exports and imports.

30 Real Exchange Rates  A depreciation (fall) in the U.S. real exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become cheaper relative to foreign goods.  This encourages consumers both at home and abroad to buy more U.S. goods and fewer goods from other countries.

31 Real Exchange Rates  As a result, U.S. exports rise, and U.S. imports fall, and both of these changes raise U.S. net exports.  Conversely, an appreciation in the U.S. real exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become more expensive compared to foreign goods, so U.S. net exports fall.

32 A FIRST THEORY OF EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION: PURCHASING-POWER PARITY  The purchasing-power parity theory is the simplest and most widely accepted theory explaining the variation of currency exchange rates.

33 The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity  Purchasing-power parity is a theory of exchange rates whereby a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

34 The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity  According to the purchasing-power parity theory, a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

35 Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity  The theory of purchasing-power parity is based on a principle called the law of one price.  According to the law of one price, a good must sell for the same price in all locations.

36 Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity  If the law of one price were not true, unexploited profit opportunities would exist.  The process of taking advantage of differences in prices in different markets is called arbitrage.

37 Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity  If arbitrage occurs, eventually prices that differed in two markets would necessarily converge.  According to the theory of purchasing-power parity, a currency must have the same purchasing power in all countries and exchange rates move to ensure that.

38 Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity  If the purchasing power of the dollar is always the same at home and abroad, then the exchange rate cannot change.  The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries must reflect the different price levels in those countries.

39 Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity  When the central bank prints large quantities of money, the money loses value both in terms of the goods and services it can buy and in terms of the amount of other currencies it can buy.

40 Figure 3 Money, Prices, and the Nominal Exchange Rate During the German Hyperinflation 10,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000, , Exchange rate Money supply Price level 1925 Indexes (Jan ) Copyright © 2004 South-Western

41 Limitations of Purchasing-Power Parity  Many goods are not easily traded or shipped from one country to another.  Tradable goods are not always perfect substitutes when they are produced in different countries.

42 MODEL PEREKONOMIAN 4 SEKTOR

43 43 Equilibrium in the Goods Market Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, r) + G – Є Q(Y, Є ) + X (Y*, Є ) (+)(+, -)(+, -)(+, +) Net exports defined as exports minus imports, X - Є Q NX(Y,Y*, Є ) ≡ X(Y*, Є ) – Є Q (Y, Є ) Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, r) + G + NX(Y,Y*, Є ) (+)(+, -)(-,+, +)

44 44 Four our purposes the essential implication of equation : 1.An Increase in the real interest rate leads to a decrease in the demand for domestics goods. This leads, through the multiplier, to a decrease in output 2.An increase in the real exchange rate- a real depreciation leads to shift in demand toward domestic goods, and thus in increase in net exports. the increase in net export increases demand and output

45 45 3. Given our focus on the short run, we assumed in our previous treatment of the IS-LM Model that the (domestic) price level was given. I shall extend this assumption to the foreign price level, so the real exchange rate, ( Є ≡ E P*/P) and the nominal exchange rate (E) move together. A nominal depreciation leads one for one, to a real depreciation. If for notational convenience, we choose P and P* so that P=P*=1 (and we can do so because they are index number), then Є = E

46 46 4.As we take the domestic price level as given, there is no inflation, actual or expected. Thus, the nominal and the real interest rate are the same, and we can replace the real interest rate r, in the equation by the nominal interest rate, i Y = C(Y-T) + I (Y, i) + G + NX(Y,Y*, E) (+)(+, -)(-,+, +)

47 47 EQUILIBRIUM IN FINANCIAL MARKETS Domestic bonds Versus Foreign Bonds The Interest parity condition i t = i t * + (E e t+1 – E t )/ E t The domestic interest rate i t must be equal to the foreign interest rate i t * plus the expected rate of depreciation of the domestic currency (E e t+1 – E t )/ E t

48 48 For now, The expected future exchange rate is given and denote it as E e and under this assumption, and dropping time indexes, the interest parity condition becomes : i = i * + (E e – E)/ E Multiplying both sides by E, bringing the terms in E to the left side, and dividing both sides by (1+i-i * ) gives the current exchange rate as a function of the expected future exchange rate and the domestic and foreign interest rate

49 49 E= E e / (1+i – i *) This equation implies a negative relation between the domestic interest rate and the exchange rate. Given the expected future exchange rate and the foreign interest rate, an increase in the domestic interest rate leads to a decrease in the exchange rate equivalently, to an appreciation of the domestic currency. A decrease in the domestic interest rate leads to an increase in the exchange rate to a depreciation

50 50 Exchange Rate, E Domestic Interest rate, i Interest parity relation (given i*, Ee ) E e i Appreciation of the domestic currency Depreciation of the domestic currency

51 AL-SHARF DAN HEDGING

52  Merupakan transaksi jual-beli mata uang asing (valuta asing) yang dapat dilakukan baik dengan sesama mata uang yang sejenis, misalnya rupiah dengan rupiah maupun yang tak sejenis, misalnya rupiah dengan dolar atau sebaliknya Jual-beli mata uang yang tidak sejenis ini, penyerahannya yang harus dilakukan pada waktu yang sama Pengertian…..1

53  Aktivitas perdagangan valuta asing harus terbebas dari unsur riba, maisir, dan gharar. Dalam pelaksanaannya haruslah memperhatikan beberapa batasan sebagai berikut: 1. Pertukaran tersebut harus dilakukan secara tunai (spot), artinya masing-masing pihak harus menerima/menyerahkan masing-masing mata uang pada saat yang bersamaan Batasan Al-Sharf….1

54 2. Motif pertukaran adalah dalam rangka mendukung transaksi komersial, yaitu transaksi perdagangan barang dan jasa antar bangsa, bukan dalam rangka spekulasi 3. Harus dihindari jual beli bersyarat. Misalnya, A sutuju membeli barang dari B hari ini dengan syarat B harus membelinya kembali pada tanggal tertentu dimasa mendatang Batasan Al-Sharf….2

55 4. Transaksi berjangka harus dilakukan dengan pihak-pihak yang diyakini mampu menyediakan valuta asing yang dipertukarkan. 5. Tidak dibenarkan menjual barang yang belum dikuasai atau dengan kata lain tidak dibenarkan jual beli tanpa hak kepemilikan (bai’ al-fudhuli Batasan Al-Sharf….3

56  Dengan memperhatikan beberapa batasan tersebut, terdapat beberapa tingkah laku perdagangan yang dewasa ini biasa dilakukan di pasar valuta asing konvensional harus dihindari, yaitu antara lain: Prilaku Perdagangan Valas…..1

57 1. Perdagangan tanpa penyerahan (future non-delivery trading atau margin trading), 2. Jual beli valas bukan transaksi komersial (arbitrage), baik spot maupun forward 3. Melakukan penjualan melebihi jumlah yang dimiliki atau dibeli (oversold), 4. Melakukan transaksi swap Prilaku Perdagangan Valas…2

58 1. Nilai tukar yang dijual belikan harus telah dikuasai, baik oleh pembeli maupun oleh penjual, sebelum keduanya berpisah. Penguasaan ini dapat berbentuk penguasaan secara material maupun hukum. Penguasaan secara material, misalnya pembeli langsung menerima dolar AS yang dibeli dan penjual langsung menerima uang rupiah. Adapun penguasaan hukum, misalnya pembayaran dengan menggunakan cek ketentuan Umum Sharf…1

59 2. Apabila mata uang atau valuta yang diperjual- belikan itu dari jenis yang sama, maka jual beli mata uang itu harus dilakukan dalam mata uang sejenis yang kualitas dan kuantitasnya sama sekalipun model dari mata uang itu berbeda. 3. Dalam Sharf tidak boleh dipersyaratkan dalam akadnya adanya hak khiar syarat (khiar) bagi pembeli. Khiar syarat adalah hak pilih bagi pembeli untuk dapat melanjutkan jual beli mata uang tersebut setelah selesai berlangsungnya jual-beli yang terdahulu atau tidak melanjutkan jual-beli itu,yang syarat itu diperjanjikan ketika berlangsungnya transaksi terdahulu tersebut ketentuan Umum Sharf…2

60 4. Tidak ada tenggang waktu antara penyerahan mata uang yang dipertukarkan, karena bagi sahnya sharf penegasan objek akad harus dilakukan secara tunai dan perbuatan saling menyerahkan itu harus berlangsung sebelum kedua belah pihak yang melakukan jual-beli valuta berpisah. ketentuan Umum Sharf…3

61 HEDGING

62  Lindung nilai atau hedging sebagai salah satu alat dalam manajemen risiko masih diperdebatkan hingga hari ini, hal ini membuktikan adanya gap antara hukum normatif dan positif mengenai kesesuaiannya terhadap syari’ah PENGERTIAN

63  Instrumen-instrumen baru dalam bidang ekonomi seperti derivative dikaji secara mendalam dan komprehensif oleh para ulama dan pakar ekonomi Islam yang merujuk pada sumber hukum Islam yang utama yakni Al-Qur’an, Hadits serta hasil Ijtihad para ulama sebelumnya. Hasil kajian tersebut kemudian dituangkan dalam bentuk fatwa yang menjadi dasar praktik derivative bagi umat Islam. Derivative….1

64  Fatwa-fatwa yang berkaitan dengan derivative antara lain adalah fatwa dari Dewan Syari’ah Nasional Majelis Ulama Indonesia (DSN MUI) No. 28/DSN- MUI/III/2002 tentang jual beli mata uang (Al-Sharf) dijelaskan bahwa jual beli mata uang pada prinsipnya boleh dilakukan dengan syarat atau ketentuan tidak untuk spekulasi (untung-untungan), ada kebutuhan transaksi untuk berjaga-jaga (simpanan), apabila nilainya dilakukan terhadap mata uang sejenis maka nilainya harus sama dan secara tunai (at-taqabudh), apabila berlainan jenis maka harus dilakukan dengan nilai tukar (valas) yang berlaku ada saat transaksi dilakukan dan secara tunai Derivative….2

65 1. Spot  Transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas untuk penyerahan pada saat itu (over the counter) atau penyelesaiannnya paling lambat dalam jangka waktu sua hari hukumnya adalah boleh atau tidak bertentangan dengan syari’ah. 2. Forward  Transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas yang nilainya ditetapkan pada saat sekarang untuk waktu yang akan datang, antara 2 x 24 jam sampai dengan satu tahun, hukumnya adalah haram, kecuali dalam bentuk forward agreement untuk kebutuhan yang tidak dapat dihindari (lil hajah). fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi Derivatif ….1

66 3. Swap  Kontrak pembelian dan penjualan valas dengan harga spot yang dikombinasikan dengan pembelian antara penjualan valas yang sama dengan harga forward hukumnya adalah haram. 4. Options  Kontrak untuk memperoleh hak dalam rangka membeli atau hak untuk menjual yang tidak harus dilakukan atas sejumlah unit valas pada harga dan jangka waktu atau tanggal akhir tertentu hukumnya adalah haram. fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi valas ……..2

67  Fatwa lainnya yang berkitan dengan transaksi derivative adalah dari negara Malaysia mengenai derivative future contract untuk crude palm oil (CPO). Fatwa ini menyatakan bahwa derivative future contract CPO merupakan transaksi yang termasuk syariah compliant sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai lindung nilai. fatwa terhadap jenis-jenis transaksi valas ……..3

68  Salah satu usaha mengurangi risiko adalah dengan melakukan lindung nilai (hedging). Konsep hedging pada dasarnya adalah dengan cara mengambil posisi yang berlawanan antara cash market dengan future market yang bertujuan untuk menghindari kerugian akibat pergerakan harga pasar.  Hedging dapat dilakukan menggunakan instrumen- instrumen derivative seperti forward contract, futures contract, options dan swaps Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…1

69  Penggunaan instrumen derivative sebagai alat mengendalikan risiko adalah karena globalisasi ekonomi dan integrasi keuangan dunia ditambah pula dengan peningkatan volatility atau sangat mudahnya pasar keuangan berfluktuasi. Adanya instrumen derivative memungkinkan barbagai partisipan (the ”end-user”) untuk melindungi nilai ktiva yan dimillikinya dari risiko kerugian akibat kemerosotan nilai hanya pada batas toleransi yang diinginkan atau direncanakan Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative..2

70  mekanisme futures contract secara sederhana adalah misalnya suatu perusahaan membutuhkan minyak mentah untuk dikelola tiga bulan yang akan datang, maka ia menghadapi risiko fluktuasi harga minyak karena tidak dapat memprediksi harga bahan baku 3 bulan yang akan datang. Untuk ia dapat melakukan lindung nilai (hedging) dengan membeli futures contract di pasar sekunder pada harga futures tertentu dengan jangka waktu tiga bulan. Future price ini akan bernilai lebih tinggi dari harga spot minyak mentah pada hari dilakukannya pembelian kontrak karena ditambahkan unsur margin berupa carrying cost, interest risk free, insurance dan lain sebagainya. Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…3

71  Ketika jangka waktu kontrak tiba maka futures contract kembali dijual oleh si pengusaha pada harga spot. Apabila harga spot pada tiga bulan yang akan datang melebihi futures price maka si pengusaha mendapatkan keuntungan atau premium. Bila sebaliknya harga spot lebih rendah dari futures price maka posisi ini disebut discount karena pengusaha mengalami kerugian di pasar keuangan. Nilai kerugian yang diderita sebesar selisih harga spot dengan harga futures pada tanggal jatuh tempo (setllement date). Mekanisme Transaksi Derivative…4


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