Presentation on theme: "WORLD POPULATION COLLAPSE: LESSONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES Fr. Gregory Ramon D. Gaston, SThD."— Presentation transcript:
WORLD POPULATION COLLAPSE: LESSONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES Fr. Gregory Ramon D. Gaston, SThD
PHILIPPINES: OVERPOPULATED??? RP: 90 million 300,000 sq.km. 300 persons/sq.km. Metro Manila: 10 million 636 sq.km. (0.2% RP) 15,617 persons/sq.km. (54x RP) If instead of 90 million RP had 421 million, it would be as thinly populated as Laguna (Computation: 2,473,530 million in 1,760 sq.km. =1,406 persons/sq.km)
NOT ONLY LAND AREA? 4 Food supply? –Dept. of Agriculture, Performance of Philippine Agriculture, Jan-Dec, 2006, –The agriculture sector recorded a 3.88 percent increment in output in 2006 [at 2.04 annual population growth rate , census.gov.ph]. –the world can produce sufficient food –when prices of milk, cereal or lamb go down, Americans, Europeans and Australians do? eliminate the necessary quantity of these products (by killing or dumping them into the ocean) to lower supply and thus increase prices –California farmers are paid NOT TO PRODUCE
NOT ONLY LAND AREA? NOT ONLY FOOD SUPPLY? 4 Economic growth should match popul’n growth? –33% of budget goes to foreign debt servicing –33% to the people (in terms of projects and services) –33% to ???
“Remember the population bomb? The new threat to the planet is not too many people but too few.” (Michael Meyer, Newsweek, Sept. 27, 2004)
"people are having fewer and fewer children… The world’s population—today’s 6.4 billion to around 9 billion in But after that, it will go sharply into decline. depopulation—has already begun in a number of countries. Welcome to the New Demography. It will change everything about our world, from the absolute size and power of nations to global economic growth to the quality of our lives”
Falling FERTILITY RATES (children/woman): around the year 2000 N.America=1.8 Europe=1.4 Australia=1.8 Latin America 5.0=>2.7 Asia 5.1=>2.6 Africa 6.6=>5.1 In the past 25 yrs, the no. of children/woman has fallen from:
4 UN Population Division (UNPD): –“The primary consequence of fertility decline, –especially if combined with increases in life expectancy, –is population ageing, whereby the share of older persons in a population increases relative to that of younger persons”
4 UN Population Division (UNPD): –“Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected almost to triple, –increasing from 672 million in 2005 [10.34% of world population] –to nearly 1.9 billion by 2050 [20.88% of world population].”
Total Fertility Rates below replacement: scenario every ten years
Philippine Population Pyramids, TFR’s and Median Ages (estimates) 2000: TFR = 3.22 Median age = : TFR = 2.1 (below replacement!) 2050: TFR = 1.85 Median age = 37.9
Other consequences of popl’n decline Labor Force: Japan will need 1 million immigrants per yr Economy: less consumers (clothing, toys, food, school supplies) SSS, pension will collapse with less workers supporting the old Security: immigrants’ next generations highly educated & competent no. of soldiers
UNDERPOPULATION articles Developed Nations Warned on Aging Crisis Time Bomb. Manila Bulletin (Aug 30, 2001) The Real Demographic Scare: Aging Populations. U.N. Report Foresees a Very Different World by U.N., Mar. 3, 2001 (Zenit.org) Singapore Couples to Receive Bonuses for Having Second, Third Babies. Singapore (Aug. 21, 2000) European Pension Systems Set to Collapse. Low Fertility Blamed. Friday Fax May 4, 2000 Volume 3, No. 24 Underpopulation, Not Overpopulation, the Real Global Problem. By Nicholas Eberstadt, Washington Post; Sunday, March 18, 2001 The Overpopulation Lie. Anthony LoBaido. WorldNet Daily, May 2, 2000
BABIES DESPERATELY NEEDED! Dr. Joseph Chamie, former UNPD Director said in 2004: "governments are seeking to address the underlying causes of low fertility and adopting polices…to increase their child bearing," including… 1-2. Restrict or limit contraception, abortion 6. Match making 7. Public relation campaigns for marriage, childbearing and parenthood 8. child-raising a financial option for women (e.g., paid job) Paid maternity, paternity leave 12. Cash bonus for birth of child 25. Political/legal system more responsive to couples with children, e.g., granting extra voting rights to adults with minor children
What will happen if a country with an inverted population pyramid succeeds in having more children?
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, NSSM 200 (Dec. 12, 1974): Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security & Overseas Interests 30. The strategy must include the ff. elements & actions: (a) Concentration on key countries: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, the Philippines, Thailand, Egypt, Turkey, Ethiopia and Colombia. (b) Integration of population factors and population programs into country development planning. (c) Increased assistance for family planning services, information and technology.
Small Family Size Norm
Same goal: POPLN CONTROL New emphasis: CONTRACEPTIVES because... Overpopulation Reproductive rights Reproductive health
Reproductive Health Bill (2008) SEC. 4. Definition of Terms c. Reproductive Health – the state of physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity, in all matters relating to the reproductive system and to its functions and processes. This implies that people [including children and adolescents] are able to have a satisfying and safe sex life, that they have the capability to reproduce and the freedom to decide if, when and how often to do so...
Reproductive Health Bill (2008) SEC. 21. Prohibited Acts. … Knowingly withhold information or impede the dissemination thereof, and/or intentionally provide incorrect information regarding programs and services on reproductive health including the right to informed choice and access to a full range of legal, medically-safe and effective family planning methods; … Any person who maliciously engages in disinformation about the intent or provisions of this Act. SEC. 22. Penalties. – … imprisonment ranging from one (1) month to six (6) months or a fine ranging from Ten Thousand Pesos (P10,000.00) to Fifty Thousand Pesos(P50,000.00) or both
Reproductive Health Bill (2008) SEC. 4. Definition of Terms h. [RH] also includes developing the necessary skills to be able to distinguish between facts and myths on sex and sexuality; and critically evaluate and discuss the moral, religious, social and cultural dimensions of related sensitive issues such as contraception and abortion.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AIMS FOR ABORTION 4 Rina Jimenez-David (Philippine Daily Inquirer, Nov. 8, 2008): –"In Mexico City,...the long struggle for reproductive health and rights culminated in the recent passage of a law lifting all restrictions on abortion"
LESS CHILDREN IN EACH FAMILY EASIER TO FEED??? 4 Solution: some families with few children, others (those who can) with many. 4 Responsible Parenthood: –Either (1) to generously raise a NUMEROUS FAMILY –or (2) if there are serious reasons (health, economic, social, psychological, etc.): NOT TO HAVE ANOTHER CHILD for the time being or indefinitely (Paul VI, Humanae Vitae 10) Micro level (in the family): yes Macro level (in the country): no
Dr. Gary Becker (1992 Nobel in Economics) 4 “human capital,” which refers to the skills, education, health and training of individuals, comprises around 80% of the wealth of advanced countries, and hence “can be neglected [only] at a country’s peril.” 4 True solutions to poverty: eliminate graft and corruption, good governance, education, values, all this to help individual families in the micro level
Philippine Constitution Art. II, Sec. 12, 4 “The State recognizes the sanctity of family life and shall protect and strengthen the family as a basic autonomous social institution. 4 It shall equally protect the life of the mother and the life of the unborn from conception. 4 The natural and primary right and duty of parents in the rearing of the youth for civic efficiency and the development of moral character shall receive the support of the Government”.
Pope Paul VI to participants of the World Food Conference (Nov. 4, 1974) 4 "It is inadmissible that those who have control of the wealth and resources of mankind should try to resolve the problem of hunger by forbidding the poor to be born... 4 In times gone by, in a past that we hope is now finished with, nations used to make war to seize their neighbors' riches. 4 But is it not a new form of warfare to impose a restrictive demographic policy on nations, to ensure that they will not claim their just share of the earth's goods?”
SAFE (Subtle Attacks against the Family Explained) * Demography * New Age * Values (Mis-) Education * Gospel of Life * Pornography and Violence in the Mass Media * Truth and Meaning of Human Sexuality * The Family in God’s Plan * To be forewarned is to be forearmed. When the subtle attacks are exposed, existing organizations and programs (family and life, education, youth, catechesis, etc.) become more effective.