Presentation on theme: "DECISION THEORIES 1 Problem solving –Collaboration, GAME THEORY –Asymmetric information, AGENCY THEORY –Optimization, OPERATIONAL RESEARCH 2 Problem finding."— Presentation transcript:
DECISION THEORIES 1 Problem solving –Collaboration, GAME THEORY –Asymmetric information, AGENCY THEORY –Optimization, OPERATIONAL RESEARCH 2 Problem finding –Intelligence, Design, Choice –Cognitive dissonance theory –Cognitive Fit theory 3 Collective problem - Mimetism
CONTRACTCALCULATION UNDERSTANDING RATIONALITY - Autonomy - Calculation rationality - Preferences maximization - Pure market Positivism - Strategical, political - Bounded rationality - Satisfacing - Access cost to the market Behaviorism - Convention, Understanding, Trust - Rationality of Mimetism - Information screen Constructivism
1. Problem solving
. Game theory A branch of applied mathematics that uses models to study interactions with formalized incentive structures ("games"). Game theory studies choice of optimal behavior when costs and benefits of each option are not fixed, but depend upon the choices of other individuals : various players interact strategically Game theory has applications in a variety of fields, including economics, international relations, evolutionary biology, political science, and military strategy. Game theorists study the predicted and actual behaviour of individuals in games, as well as optimal strategies.
Agency Theory - The « principal-agent » problem treats the difficulties that arise under conditions of incomplete and asymmetric information when a principal hires an agent For example when stockholders hire top executives of corporations: - The desires or goals of the principal and agent conflict - It is difficult or expensive for the principle to verify what the agent is actually doing - The principle and the agent may prefer different actions because of the different risk preferences Various mechanisms may be used to try to align the interests of the agent with those of the principal : piece rates/commissions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, the agent posting a bond, or fear of firing.
2. PROBLEM FINDING
. H. Simon : the bounded rationality Intelligence Design Choice The "administrative man" pursues his self-interests but often doesn't know what they are, is aware of only some of the possible decision alternatives, and is willing to settle for an adequate solution than continue looking for an optimal one Satisficing is a behaviour which attempts to achieve at least some minimum level of a particular variable, but which does not strive to achieve its maximum possible value.
. Cognitive Dissonance Theory Leon Festinger (1957): there is a tendency for individuals to seek consistency among their cognitions (i.e., beliefs, opinions). When there is an inconsistency between attitudes or behaviors (dissonance), something must change to eliminate the dissonance. It is most likely that the attitude will change to accommodate the behavior. In this respect, dissonance theory is contradictory to most behavioral theories which would predict greater attitude change with increased incentive (i.e., reinforcement) BehaviorsAttitudes Intelligence Design Choice Dissonance
. Cognitive Fit theory Vessey (1991) : The theory proposes that the correspondence between task and information presentation format leads to superior task performance for individual users In several studies, cognitive fit theory has provided an explanation for performance differences among users across different presentation formats (tables, graphs, schematic faces, geographic information systems…
Artificial intelligence Implanting into IT systems so much intelligence that they are able to cooperate with humans at the same level as do humans among themselves: Chess World Champion Kasparov defeat against the system Deep Blue Windows XP’ troubleshooters and Vista’s Solutions to Problems features Search engines understanding the content of the web pages Data mining and information discovery Open mind common sense database Natural language understanding Intelligent robots
Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) Establishing more user-friendly systems: new interfaces –multisensoriality, –multi-modality, –multi-lingualism, –input/output by way of direct brain/machine or brain/brain interfaces new displays technologies: –wearable devices –head-mounted displays –micro-displays –3D displays
3. Decision, a collective problem
Rules, regulations, codes « Screen » Human Agents Conviction, Mimetism A D B C Confirmation Interpretation Flux Uncertaincy? Transparency? Interpretation? Agreement, Convention, Understanding