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Electric Power Sector Emissions Forecast and RES Analysis Peter Ciborowski April 15, 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Electric Power Sector Emissions Forecast and RES Analysis Peter Ciborowski April 15, 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Electric Power Sector Emissions Forecast and RES Analysis Peter Ciborowski April 15, 2013

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5 ForecastHistoric

6 GHG Electric Power Emission Sources In-state Combustionfossil CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O Flue gas desulphurizationfossil CO 2 Coal storageCH 4 Hydroelectric reservoirsCH 4 TransmissionSF 6 Out-of-state Combustion fossil CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O

7 General Approach In-state Generation MWHMMBtu inputemissions Heat rate Emission rate Fuel energy contentfuel use Capacity factorcapacity Out-of-state Generation MWHemissions Emission rate

8 Sources for Net Generation Forecast Nonrenewable generation XCEL, MP, OTP, ISP, GRE, MPC, SMMPA: 2012 MN Annual Electric Report - covers 97% of nonrenewable net generation Other (mainly municipals with associated district heating): 3-year historic average, 2009-2011 Renewable generation Existing facilities: Mostly 3-year historic average, 2009-2011 or, for reporting utilities, 2012 Annual Electric Report forecast Planned facilities: Most recent Integrated resource plans, characteristic capacity factors Further expansion under out-year RES requirements: RES requirements assessment, 40% wind capacity factor, location based on historic in-state vs out-of-state deployment

9 Why Minnesota Annual Electric Report Forecast? model-based economic dispatch internal consistency on a utility-by-utility basis between forecasted electric demand and forecasted unit dispatch and purchases near-comprehensive coverage of GHG- emitting generation sources ease of annual update to the forecast

10 RES Assessment Components Retail sales forecast, utility by utility % RES requirement (MN, WI, MT), utility by utility Forecasted generation, capacity and capacity factors at existing and planned units Unit retirements RES requirements satisfied if: -generation from existing or planned units in any one year plus REC purchases that year minus REC sales that year plus banked RECs (4-yr shelf life) = REC retirement requirement -if not, add wind capacity in 5 MW increments until deficit disappears

11 RES Assessment (cont.) Utility or utility groups with MN RES obligations: XCEL, MP, OTP, ISP, GRE, DPC, MPC, East River, L&O, MRES, Heartland, CMMPA, MMPA, SMMPA Mandatory RES requirements affecting MN utilities: MN RES, WI RPS, MT RPS State-specific RPS requirements: see documentation Geographical scope for REC generation: M-RETs region Source for retail sales forecasts, 2012-2025: 2012 MN Annual Electric Report and, for nonreporting utilities, least square fit to retail sales data, 2001-2011 Source for RECs ownership: RES compliance filings Future use of purchased REC purchases: none

12 Note: forecast line with red triangles is forecast used in this analysis

13 Net Imports Net imports before losses = Retail sales minus in- state net generation T&D losses typically 5 to 7% 2010 Minnesota example: Retail sales67,800 GWh In-state net gen n 52,663 GWh Line loss 4,573 GWh Deficit before line loss15,137 GWh Source: EIA, Minnesota Electricity Profile 2010 (2012)

14 Unit Retirements XCEL Energy: Black Dog units 3-4, Wilmarth units 1-2, Red Wing units 1-2, Key City, Granite City Minnesota Power: Sappi unit 5 Otter Tail Power: Hoot Lake units 2-3 Rochester Public Utilities: Silver Lake Austin Utilities: Austin NE: unit 1 (converson to natural gas)

15 Unit Additions (cumulative MW increase from 2012) Simple cycle gas turbine: 9 MW 2013, 33 MW 2014, 132 MW 2015, 224 MW 2018 Combined cycle gas turbine: 195 MW 2018, 390 MW 2019, 585 2020, 780 MW 2023, 975 MW 2024, 1,807 MW 2025 Wind: 40 MW 2013, 53 MW 2014, 74 MW 2015, 87 MW 2016, 124 MW 2017, 133 MW 2019, 285 MW 2020, 296 MW 2021, 300 MW 2022, 719 MW 2023, 915 MW 2024, 928 MW 2025

16 ForecastHistoric

17 Forecast Historic

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23 EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook MRO- west Net Generation Forecast 20102025% change Renewable Energy (million MWH) Wind20.2532.12+59% Photovoltaic000% Biomass0.671.19+78% MMSW1.390.48-65% Hydroelectric10.910.23-6% subtotal33.2144.12+33% Other (million MWH) Coal125.66127.26+1% Oil0.160.43+169% Natural gas6.228.3+33% Nuclear28.9830.72+6% Pumped storage0.32 0% Distributed generation00.13NA Carbon Dioxide (million tons) 149.01151.9+2%

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26 RES Miscellanea 20152025 In-state renewable net generation (GWh) 11,859.714,735.8 Out-of-state renewable net generation (GWh) 8,760.310.009.8 RECs required to be retired under MN RES 9.998 million20.205 million Banked RECs53.3 million36.3 million Ratio of Banked RECS to needed annual MN REC retirements 5.3: 11.8:1

27 Conclusions GHG emissions from the Minnesota power sector are likely to largely unchanged, 2013-2025 Declining emissions from imports are largely offset by increasing emissions from expanded natural gas use By the end of 2012, 70% of the emission reductions in-state that might be expected under the RES are likely to already have been realized Electric power sector GHG emissions at 2015 will be 15% below 2005 levels, meeting the statutory target

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29 Retirements

30 Coal Displacement: 2005-2011 2005200820102011 2011 minus 2005 % increase, 2005-2011 Net In-state Generation (million MWH) Coal 34.302 31.177 27.540 27.698(6.604)-19.25% Nuclear 12.835 12.997 13.478 11.959 (0.877)-6.83% MMSW and solid biomass 0.994 1.252 1.452 1.328 0.334+33.65% Natural gas-gas turbine2.314 2.672 4.026 3.068 0.754+32.58% Hydroelectric 0.806 0.754 0.764 0.700 (0.106)-13.16% Wind turbine 1.673 4.376 5.234 7.323 5.650+337.61% Other 1.127 0.519 0.447 0.446 (0.681)-60.44% Total 54.05 53.75 52.94 52.52 (1.530)-2.83% Imports (million MWH) 16.539 18.274 17.888 19.020 2.481+15.00% Imports as % of in-state plus out- of-state generation23.43%25.37%25.25%26.59% Retail sales (million MWH) 66.019 68.159 67.205 67.852 1.833+2.78%

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32 Proposed RES Modeling Assumptions Where not prescribed by a carve-out, wind is the technology of choice Natural gas back-up generation to wind be calculated at 5 to 15% of wind generation New wind capacity factors will rise to 40% by 2015 The location of additional wind capacity (in-state, out-of-state) will follow historical patterns Wind will displace either baseload coal or imports; the calculation should be done both ways

33 202020252030 GHGs-avoided (CO 2 -e tons) 9,368,330 10,494,954 12,123,747 Renewable Energy Generation (MWH) 12,350,799 14,735,831 17,057,227 Renewable Energy Capacity Added 3,742 4,385 5,050 Emission-avoided Factor0.76 0.71 In-state Coal Net Generation Fraction 0.48 0.44NA Coal plant Capacity Factor 0.88 0.81 NA RES 27 (current policy) Emissions-avoided

34 forecast historic

35 RES and SES Scenarios RES37: revised weighted RES of 37% at 2030 (30% at 2025, 24% at 2020) RES37-accelerated: revised weighted RES of 37% at 2030 (34% at 2025, 29% at 2025) SES10: SES of 10% at 2030 (5% at 2025, 2% at 2020) SES2: SES of 2% at 2020

36 RES and SES Analysis 202020252030 2030: in-state to out- of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels Incremental GHGs-avoided (CO 2 -e tons) RES37(8,490)86,9992,130,586NA RES37-accelerated278,1632,577,7422,950,568NA SES10954,9741,333,7784,611,2413,038,263 SES21,140,0221,125,6811,162,900793,706 incremental additional renewable energy MWH-generated RES37(10,804)118,8462,947,523NA RES37-accelerated356,5383,540,8404,081,343NA SES101,191,5761,787,0606,379,3434,203,234 SES21,425,6901,492,7381,542,9731,053,115

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39 RES and SES Analysis (cont.) 202020252030 2030: in-state to out- of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels incremental additional renewable energy MW installed capacity RES37(5)35996NA RES37-accelerated1001,0091,423NA SES108051,2054,2882,827 SES29621,0071,041712 emission-avoided factor (CO 2 -e tons/MWH-avoided) RES370.790.730.72NA RES37-accelerated0.780.730.72NA SES100.800.750.72 SES20.800.75

40 RES and SES Analysis (cont.) 202020252030 2030: in-state to out- of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels in-state coal net generation fraction (of in-state net generation) RES370.480.44NA RES37-accelerated0.480.41NA SES100.470.42NA SES20.470.43NA coal plant capacity factor RES370.880.81NA RES37-accelerated0.870.77NA SES100.870.79NA SES20.860.80NA

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