Presentation on theme: "A PROUDLY South African Solution South African Market Research sin"— Presentation transcript:
1 A PROUDLY South African Solution South African Market Research sin Q-LSMsA PROUDLY South African Solutionto an uniquelySouth African Market Research sinDeveloped by:Millward Brown:Erik du PlessisKamendraTNS:Neil Higgs
2 A Definition of Market Research “Purveyors of Consumers’ Valuable Time to Marketers”We Persuade Well Selected Respondents to give some of their time to answer questions,Which we analyse, interpret, present to marketersI.e. We add value to the time we got from consumersIT IS A RESEARCH SINTO WASTE THIS VALUABLE TIME OF THE RESPONDENTS
3 AMPS is proudly unique to South Africa Nowhere in world does marketers and media owners combine to have an industry respected single source database,Unilever (Eddie Schulze) and SAARF developed LSM’s as a shorthand to differentiate between the haves and have-nots based on their living standardProf. Jackie Galpin did the statistical analysisHas become a South African industry normBUT:
7 Sufficiency versus Redundancy Determining the LSM algorithmWhen Prof Galpin does the analysis the data has been collected. There is no need to use as few as possible variables in the classification algorithm,Whether the algorithm uses 28 variables, or all the variables in the AMPS survey does not matter,Much rather err on the side of redundancy.Using LSM inside the AMPS databaseWhen using LSM for analyses inside the AMPS database the LSM is coded per respondent.It does not matter how many variables are used in the algorithmUsing LSMs to collect primary data from respondentsIt really matters how much time you are wastingSUFFICIENCY is a real priority
8 This ‘wasting my time’ is coming back to bite us Respondents do notfeel it is impoliteto end a cell phone or on-line interview that wastes time.JUST CLICK THE END BUTTON!
10 Is Personal Income a good surrogate? Hardly 11 million out of 37 million said ‘No Income’, but we know they live and consume stuff and have things (Living Standard),5th largest income category, nearly 1m., refused to answer the questionNot much correlation with LSM
14 Toward Better Market Research practices via good science Introducing Q-LSMsToward Better Market Research practicesvia good science
15 Research Question: I want to split my sample into: LSM 8-10, LSM 5-7 OR:I want to interview LSM 7-10How do I not waste 20 minutes of interviewing time just to do this?23,9 m is the number of people in non-rural South Africa,Solve this problem for a non-rural sample
16 Research Question: I want to split my sample into: LSM 8-10, LSM 5-7 OR:I want to interview LSM 7-10How do I not waste 20 minutes of interviewing time just to do this?23,9 m is the number of people in non-rural South Africa,Solve this problem for a non-rural sample
17 Splitting Sample into 3 Supergroups (Non-Rural Sample)C: 1,3mB:14.1mA: 8.5m
18 (sulsmr1101) Tap water in house/on plot (sulsmr1102) Hot running water from a geyser(sulsmr1103) Flush toilet in/outside house(sulsmr1104) Built-in kitchen sink(sulsmr1105) Home telephone (excl. cellphone)(sulsmr1106) 3 or more cellphones in household(sulsmr1107) 2 cellphones in household(sulsmr1108) 0 or 1 radio set in household(sulsmr1109) Swimming pool(sulsmr1110) TV set(sulsmr1111) M-Net/DStv subscription(sulsmr1112) Air conditioner(sulsmr1113) DVD/Blu Ray player(sulsmr1114) Home theatre system(sulsmr1115) Computer - Desktop/Laptop(sulsmr1116) Refrigerator of combined fridge/freezer(sulsmr1117) Deep freezer - free standing(sulsmr1118) Electric Stove(sulsmr1119) Microwave oven(sulsmr1120) Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher(sulsmr1121) Washing machine(sulsmr1122) Tumble dryer(sulsmr1123) Dishwashing machine(sulsmr1124) Motor vehicle in household(sulsmr1125) No domestic workers or household helpers in household(sulsmr1126) Home security service(sulsmr1127) House/cluster house/town house(sulsmr1128) Metropolitan dweller(sulsmr1129) Rural rest (excl. W. Cape & Gauteng rural)2. COMMUNITY SIZE(commun1 ) ( ) - Part of Large Urban(commun2) ( ) - Part of Large Urban(commun3) ( ) - Part of Small Urban+Rural(commun4) (Less than 500/Rural) - Part of Small Urban+Rural(commun5) ( ) - Large Urban(commun6) (Less than Non-Urban) - Small Urban+Rural3. METRO AREA(armetro01) Cape Town(armetro02) Cape Town Fringe Area(armetro03) Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage(armetro04) East London(armetro05) Durban(armetro06) Bloemfontein(armetro07) Greater Johannesburg (Alex, JHB, Sandton, Soweto, Randburg)(armetro08) Reef (Urban Gauteng, excl. JHB, PTA, Vaal)(armetro09) Pretoria(armetro10) Kimberley(armetro11) PMB(armetro12) Soweto(armetro13) Vaal (De Deur, Meyerton, Sasolburg, Vanderbijlpark, Vereeniging)(armetro14) eMalahleni / Witbank(armetro15) East Rand(armetro16) West Rand4. PROVINCE(prov) Province5. GENDER(sex) Gender
22 Accuracy of the rule: 23.9 million people in the non-rural universe. 8.5 m. (36%) are LSM 7-10, this decision rule will:Correctly identify 7.4 million (87%) of these as LSM 8-10,Classify .78 m. LSMs 5-7 incorrectly into this category (i.e. 9.6% of the sample)Clasify ZERO LSM 1-4 as LSM 7-10!14m. are LSM 5-7, this decision rule will:Correctly identify 13.2m. (94%) of these as LSM 5-7,Classify 1.1m. LSM 8-10 incorrectly in this category (7% of sample)
23 Can the accuracy be improved? YES,Just ask a few more questions!!(I.e. Run the analysis for another layer)Why don’t we show this?Limitation of a PowerPoint slide!
24 Splitting LSM 9-10 from Rest (Non-Rural Sample)Desktop/laptop?NYVacuumDomestic WorkerNYNYDomesticMotor Veh.VacuumRestYYNNYN9-10Rest9-10RestRest9-10
28 The Q-LSM ‘law of diminishing returns’ Example: if, to identify LSM 7-10, we just interview everyone at random, 36% will e correct,Every ‘decision rule’ will increase this percentage correct,With our three question decision rule we get 87% correct,To get 100% correct we need to ask all 28 LSM question and do the weighting,
29 Does it Matter? LSMs is a continuum! Misclassification happens close to the borders of the categories.The whole SA population is continuously migrating up the LSM scales!
31 Timing: Implement every time a new study is done, Especially when migrating from F2F interviews.
32 Plans: Neil Higgs: Africa Other Emerging Unilever (Source: Neil) SAMRA PAMROESOMARAfricaOther EmergingUnilever (Source: Neil)Own LSM questions: tried once in two countriesBig SegmentationInterest in Rural increased
33 A PROUDLY South African Solution South African Market Research sin Q-LSMsA PROUDLY South African Solutionto an uniquelySouth African Market Research sinDeveloped by:Millward Brown:Erik du PlessisKamendraTNS:Neil Higgs