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Bild 1 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic? An extended statistical analysis confirms the negative picture.

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Presentation on theme: "Bild 1 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic? An extended statistical analysis confirms the negative picture."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bild 1 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 How sensitive are certain industries in the Nordic? An extended statistical analysis confirms the negative picture

2 Bild 2 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Is the demand-curve of electricity showed in NEPs newsletter still valid? Or are there shifts on the y-axis – price changes of ind products etc or on the x-axis – growth in physical terms etc?

3 Bild 3 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Now we investigate further with new statistics Statistics before –Finland Industries on aggregate level –Norway 94-96/98-00 Disaggregated level –Sweden & 00 Disaggregated level New statistics –Finland Still aggregate level –Norway –Sweden 01-03

4 Bild 4 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Electricity cost shares in Norway The electricity cost share differs a lot depending if the costs are divided with the sales or just the value added Value added Sales

5 Bild 5 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Electricity shares in Finland (sales) Higher electricity share imply lower electricity price that the industry is prepered to pay

6 Bild 6 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Electricity cost shares in Sweden (value added) Mechanical pulp or DIP

7 Bild 7 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Economic development for the metal industry in Finland Current price level Beginning China boom

8 Bild 8 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Economic Development for the electricity intensive industry in the Nordic countries Most electricity intensive industries show stagnation the last years => lower demand of electricity Finnish pulp and paper is one exeption The costs reflexes produced volumes => electricity demand –High inflation until the beginning of the 90ies => the real growth much less than in the diagramme The sales also reflexes prices on the products sold by the industries

9 Bild 9 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Break even price What have we done? A) Tried to estimate at what electricity price various industries starts losing money (including investment costs) B) Used disaggregated statistics from as many years as possible until 2003

10 Bild 10 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Break even price SF: New problem for finnish paper&pulp industry Beginning of China boom Total losses Current price level Warning! Price level near Nord Pool

11 Bild 11 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Break even price NO 1 – Same problem as before

12 Bild 12 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Break even price NO 2

13 Bild 13 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Break even price SE 1 Al &Ferro: Could depend on increased importance of for exemple increased circulation of cans etc Minimum 3 companies in the statistics

14 Bild 14 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Break even price SE 2

15 Bild 15 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Economic development - SF

16 Bild 16 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Economic development - SE

17 Bild 17 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006 Economic development - NO

18 Bild 18 NEP Helsingfors 24 januari 2006


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