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Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector.

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Presentation on theme: "Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector."— Presentation transcript:

1 Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector

2 Outline Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to water resources Viewing water resources from a ‘services’ perspective Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources Tools/models WEAP model presentation Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

3 Effective V&A Assessments Defining V&A assessment Often V&A focuses on analysis over assessment Why? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts, e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests, etc. Assessment is an integrating process requiring the interface of physical and social science and public policy

4 Effective V&A Assessments (continued) General questions What is the assessment trying to influence? How can the science/policy interface be most effective? How can the participants be most effective in the process? General problems Participants bring differing objectives/ expertise These differences often lead to dissention/ differing opinions – this is where MCA can help in prioritization

5 Effective V&A Assessments (continued) To be valuable, the assessment process requires Relevancy Credibility Legitimacy Consistent participation An interdisciplinary process The assessment process often requires a tool The tool is usually a model or suite of models These models serve as the interface This interface is a bridge for dialogue between scientists and policy makers

6 The Water Resource Sector Water’s “Trade-Off” Landscape

7 Water Resources from a Services Perspective Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or streamflow But an evaluation of the potential impacts of global warming on the goods and services provided by freshwater systems

8 Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use Freshwater Ecosystem Services

9 Water Resources – A Critical V&A Sector Critical to both managed and natural systems Human activity influences both systems Natural Systems External Pressure State of System Little Control of processes Managed Systems External Pressure Product, good or service Process Control Example: Agriculture Example: Wetlands services

10 Hydrologic ‘External Pressures’ related to Climate Change Precipitation amount Global average increase Marked regional differences Precipitation frequency and intensity Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al., 2003) Evaporation and transpiration Increase total evaporation Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere interactions

11 Specific Pressures: Retreating Himalayan glaciers Forecasts of 25% losses globally by 2050; 50% by 2100

12 Specific Pressures: Retreating Himalayan glaciers Meltwaters are depended upon during dry season to sustain low flow periods Probable diminished volume and earlier timing of flows Has implications for hydropower production, agricultural demands, and river and riparian quality and ecosystem needs

13 Specific Pressures: Sea level rise Sea level could rise by as much as 50 cm by 2100 (IPCC, 2001) For islands, coasts: sea level rise, inundation of coast lines, and decreasing infiltration of precipitation will lead to shrinking groundwater lenses Displacement of people will cause new localized stresses on water resource allocation water tables may rise to land surface, causing full evapotranspiration and diminished water quality (Burns 2000)

14 Specific Pressures: Extreme weather Typhoons and cyclones could increase by 50-60% (NASA, 2001), with intensities increasing by 10-20% (IPCC 2001). Possible doubling of frequency of 100 mm/day rainfall events and 15-18% increase in rainfall intensity over large areas of the Pacific (IPCC 2001). This may lead to greater soil erosion and runoff, and less water available for infiltration and evapotranspiration

15 Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources Construction/modification of physical infrastructure Canal linings Closed conduits instead of open channels Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems Raising dam wall height Increasing canal size Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage Inter-basin water transfers

16 Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources (continued) Adaptive management of existing water supply systems Change operating rules Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply Physically integrate reservoir operation system Coordinate supply/demand Indigenous options

17 Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources (continued) Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology Domestic Municipal and in-home re-use of water Leak repair Rainwater collection for non-potable uses Low-flow appliances Dual-supply systems (potable and nonpotable) Agriculture Irrigation timing and efficiency Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent High value/low water use crops Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application irrigation systems Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water

18 Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued) Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology (continued) Industry Water re-use and recycling Closed cycle and/or air cooling More efficient hydropower turbines Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers Energy (hydropower) Reservoir re-operation Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat) Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations Low head run of the river hydropower Market/price-driven transfers to other activities Using water price to shift water use between sectors

19 Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies What tools are available to understand both water resource vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation strategies? How can stakeholders be engaged in these processes?

20 Types of Water Resources Models Hydraulic: biophysical process models describing streamflow, flooding Hydrology: rainfall/runoff processes Planning: water resource systems models Which model?... What questions are you trying to answer?

21 Hydraulic Model Critical questions How fast, deep is river flowing How do changes to flow and channel morphology impact sediment transport and services provided (fish habitats, recreation, etc).

22 Hydrology Model Critical questions How does rainfall on a catchment translate into flow in a river? What pathways does water follow as it moves through a catchment? How does movement along these pathways impact the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of river flows, as well as water quality?

23 Planning Model Critical questions How should water be allocated to various uses in time of shortage? How can these operations be constrained to protect the services provided by the river? How should infrastructure in the system (e.g., dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve maximum benefit (economic, social, ecological)? How will allocation, operations, and operating constraints change if new management strategies are introduced into the system?

24 Operational and hydraulic HEC HEC-HMS – event-based rainfall-runoff (provides input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation “mapping”) HEC-RAS – one-dimensional steady and unsteady flow HEC-ResSim – reservoir operation modeling WaterWare RiverWare MIKE11 Delft3d Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models

25 Hydraulic Water Management Model HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes Sub-daily rainfall- runoff processes of small catchments Free, download from web

26 Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models (continued) Planning/ hydrology WEAP21 Aquarius SWAT IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation) RIBASIM MIKE 21 and BASIN

27 Current Focus – Planning and Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change Selected planning/hydrology models: can be deployed on PC, extensive documentation, ease of use, free (or free to developing nations)… Aquarius SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)

28 Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models AQUARIS advantage: Has economic efficiency criterion requiring the reallocation of stream flows until the net marginal return in all water uses is equal Cannot be climatically driven – flows prescribed by user Economic focus

29 Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (continued) SWAT advantage: Can predict effect of management decisions on water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields on ungauged river basins. Considers complex water quality constituents. Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily timestep Focuses on supply side of water balance

30 Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (continued) WEAP21 advantage: Seamlessly integrates watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management Can be climatically driven Based on holistic approach of integrated water resources management (IWRM) – supply and demand

31 IWRM Principles Freshwater is finite and has economic and social value in its competing uses Water is essential to sustain life and safe water should be accessible to all Water development and management should be participatory, involving users, planners, policy makers at all levels and recognize that women in particular play a central role in water provision for their families International Conference on Water and Environment, Dublin, Ireland

32 IWRM Principles Promotes the coordinated development and management of land, water and related resources to maximize social and economic welfare in equitable way without comprising sustainability Cross-sectoral integration in water policy development Global Water Partnership

33 IWRM Resources Global Water Partnership at:

34 Overview WEAP21 Hydrology and planning Planning (water distribution) examples and exercises Adding hydrology to the model User interface Scale Data requirements and resources Calibration and validation Results Scenarios Licensing and registration

35 A Simple System with WEAP

36 An Infrastructure Constraint Unmet

37 A Regulatory Constraint Unmet IFR Met

38 unmet Different Priorities For example, the demands of large farmers (70 units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units) may be Priority 1 in another

39 Different Preferences For example, a center pivot operator may prefer to take water from a tributary because of lower pumping costs

40 WEAP and Planning Provides a common framework for transparently organizing water resource data at any scale desired – local watershed, regional or transboundary river basin Scenarios can be easily developed to explore possible water futures Implications of various policies can be evaluated

41 WEAP Capabilities Can do High level planning at local and regional scales Demand management Water allocation Infrastructure evaluation Cannot do Sub-daily operations Optimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost minimizations or social welfare maximization)

42 Uses of WEAP Policy Research Alternative Allocations Climate Change Land Use Change Infrastructure Planning Capacity Building Negotiation Stakeholder Engagement

43

44 WEAP is Scenario-driven The scenario editor readily accommodates analysis of: Climate change scenarios and assumptions Future demand assumptions Future watershed development assumptions

45 Futures and Scenarios: Why? Scenarios: a systematic way of thinking about the future To gain a better understanding of the possible implications of decisions (or non-decisions across scales and time To support decision-making

46 Driving Forces Demographic More people Urbanization Older Economic Growing integration of global economy Social Increasing inequality Persistent poverty Cultural Spread of values of consumerism and individualism Nationalist and religious reaction Technological Computer and information technology Biotechnology Miniaturization Environmental/Climatic Increasing global stress Local degradation Some remediation in richer countries Governance Global institutions Democratic government Role for civil society in decision-making

47 Who are the Actors? Government Private sector Civil society Public Rich farmers Poor farmers Urban users Environmentalists Or?

48 Consider Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Understanding is limited Surprise The unexpected and the novel can alter directions Volition Human choice matters

49 Forecast and Backcast ? ? Where is society going? forecast backcast Where do we want to go? How do we get there?

50

51 WEAP21 Program Structure

52 The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface Languages: Interface Only English French Chinese Spanish

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54 Data Requirements WEAP allows the user to determine the level of complexity desired according to the questions that need to be addressed the availability of data

55 From the simple…

56 To the complex….

57 Data Requirements: Supply User-prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed time series) Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs River network (connectivity) Alternative supply via physical hydrology (let the watershed generate riverflow) Watershed attributes Area, land cover... Climate Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and relative humidity

58 Letting Climate Drive Hydrology

59 The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module Surface Runoff = f(P e,z 1,1/LAI) SwSw DwDw

60 One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class

61 Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical Framework in WEAP21

62 Data Requirements: Demand Water demand data: multi-sectoral Municipal and industrial demand Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism, etc.) Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita, use/socioeconomic group) Agricultural demands Aggregated by area (# hectares, annual water- use/hectare) Disaggregated by crop water requirements Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)

63 Data Requirements (continued) Agriculture Industry Municipal Cotton Rice Wheat... Electric Power Petroleum Paper... South City West City... Irrigation... Cooling Processing Others Single Family Multi-family... Furrow Sprinkler Drip Standard Efficient... Kitchen Bathing Washer Toilet... SECTOR SUBSECTOR END-USE DEVICE

64 Example Data Resources Indigenous knowledge! Climate (Asia Pacific Data Research Center) Hydrology (Global Runoff Data Center) GIS (Asian Spatial Information and Analysis Network) General Resources

65 Calibration and Validation Model evaluation criteria Flows along mainstem and tributaries Reservoir storage and release Water diversions from other basins Agricultural water demand and delivery Municipal and industrial water demands and deliveries Groundwater storage trends and levels

66 Modeling Streamflow

67 Looking at Results Select results to be viewed, including which scenario here. Change units and sub categories of results, and change the style of the graph here. Select values for the y here.

68 What next? How can output from WEAP, or any water resource model for that matter, be organized and analyzed to select adaptation strategies?... Stakeholder-driven multi-criteria analysis can help…

69 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) Any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where the alternatives can accomplish several objectives Is particularly useful to situations where a single criterion would fall short, and allows decision-makers to address a range of relevant factors

70 MCA: Scope All sectors, regions, livelihoods, ecosystems, etc. Has been used extensively in water resources planning, coastal zone management, agricultural development, and stakeholder processes

71 MCA: Key Outputs A single preferred option, or… A short list of preferred options, or… A characterization of acceptable and unacceptable possiblities

72 MCA: Key Inputs Evaluation criteria Relevant metrics for those criteria

73 MCA–WEAP: Motivation Develop an interactive computer tool to facilitate multi-criteria assessment for water resource options in a stakeholder context Designed specifically to be used in conjunction with outputs from the WEAP model and stakeholder processes to develop, weight and apply evaluation criteria to adaptation options

74 MCA–WEAP: History MCA-WEAP is a new Excel macros-based model, built off of NAPAssess, a tool developed by SEI for use by Sudan and Yemen in their NAPA processes Now reshaped to focus exclusively on adaptation options around water – used so far in Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) studies ensure adequate stakeholder representation Identify CC adaptation strategies establish country-driven criteria to evaluate and prioritize Make concensus-based recommendations for adaptation initiatives Open source, and still a BETA version!

75

76 MCA–WEAP: Capabilities Streamlines the multi-criteria analysis process by: Housing all relevant project information on a single platform Supporting a transparent, user-friendly process for developing, weighting, and applying evaluation criteria Producing a ranked set of alternatives

77 MCA–WEAP: Steps Assess vulnerability priorities Identify key stakeholders Identify potential adaptation strategies Develop stakeholder-driven evaluation criteria to determine trade-offs Assign weights to criteria Prioritize adaptation options for best meeting the needs of those most vulnerable

78 Licensing WEAP Go to and register for a new license (free for government, university, and non-profit organizations in developing countries) Register WEAP under Help menu and select “Register WEAP”


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