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UNCLASSIFIED Tropical Cyclone Basins S WBACE P L.

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Presentation on theme: "UNCLASSIFIED Tropical Cyclone Basins S WBACE P L."— Presentation transcript:

1 UNCLASSIFIED Tropical Cyclone Basins S WBACE P L

2 UNCLASSIFIED Area of Responsibility 180 o JTWC CPHC 140 o JTWC NHC = TC warning center JTWC

3 UNCLASSIFIED TPC/NHC National Hurricane Center JTWC CPHC FNMOC AJTWC PGUA RODN DGAR RKSJ KGWC NOAA NESDIS SAB

4 UNCLASSIFIED Purpose of TC Satellite Reconnaissance To assist the Typhoon Duty Officer or Hurricane Specialist in determining the position and estimated intensity of the tropical cyclone at a point in time

5 UNCLASSIFIED Recon Imagery Requirements Imagery used in support of Center warnings must: –Have sufficient resolution to discern the important meteorological features

6 UNCLASSIFIED Use in the warning process, continued Feeds in to –Objective best track –Synthetic vortex (bogus) insertion –Numerical model guidance (persistence) –Current warning position and intensity

7 UNCLASSIFIED

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10 Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:

11 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: So - wheres the aircraft? RADAR? SFC OBS?

12 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Aircraft recon - discontinued in WestPac 1987

13 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: RADAR - 240nm from GUAM and Kadena only WSR-88D

14 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Surface Obs - very limited in WestPac AOR. WSR-88D

15 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: So - all thats left - all too often - is two opinions about the location of the LLCC

16 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Which two opinions? JTWC and AFWA!

17 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: If you pick A, Guam is threatened in 24 hrs... But not if you pick B

18 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Gale winds here in green

19 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! So the choice matters!

20 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! The overall confidence in a single fix is never high - unless its an EYE.

21 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! If we selected a position in-between the two subjective position estimates….

22 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….then we have a higher probability of being correct…….

23 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….or at least not too too far off…....

24 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….when compared to the other two forecasts. Most Likely

25 UNCLASSIFIED Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….when compared to the other two forecasts. EXTREME Most Likely


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