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The public mood… Bobby Duffy, Managing Director Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Sunrise? Sunset? Catastrophic explosion?

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Presentation on theme: "The public mood… Bobby Duffy, Managing Director Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Sunrise? Sunset? Catastrophic explosion?"— Presentation transcript:

1 The public mood… Bobby Duffy, Managing Director Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Sunrise? Sunset? Catastrophic explosion?

2 The public…  …were more negative than expected?  …are now more optimistic than they should be?  …but are in denial  …and contradictory

3 We have been very ungrateful…

4 We’ve spent the money… Source: IFS Bulletin OECD.Stat Percentage of national income UKFranceItalyUSAItalyGermany

5 We’ve spent the money… Source: IFS Bulletin OECD.Stat Percentage of national income UKFranceItalyUSAItalyGermany

6 A lot was done: - 22,000 extra police - 51,000 more doctors and 98,000 more nurses - Average hospital waiting times down from 18 weeks to 6 weeks - 4,000 schools built, rebuilt or refurbished - c3,500 Sure Start Children’s Centres - 18-19 year olds 20% more likely to go on to higher education than in the mid-1990s - etc etc

7 The results? % net agree Do you agree or disagree… “this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services” 2005 General Election (May 05) Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 2001 General Election (Jun 01) Base: c.1,000 British Adults Source: Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index

8 % worse% better July 1998 QGenerally speaking do you think that Britain as a place to live is getting better or worse or is it staying the same? May 2007 June 2008 Base: 2,019 British adults, 9 May-5 June 2008 The results?

9 Strongly agree Don’t know Tend to disagree Neither Tend to agree Strongly disagree 27%63% Agree 18-3463% 35-5461% 55+64% ABC161% C2DE65% Two thirds agree British society is ‘broken’ To what extent do you agree or disagree that British society is broken? Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10 Sources: Ipsos MORI International Social Trends Monitor/Delivery Index (average percentage over year); HM Treasury, HM Treasury (2007) Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2007 Crown Copyright; Nicholas, S., Kershaw, C. and Walker, A. (2007) Crime in England and Wales 2006/07 Home Office Statistical Bulletin 2 nd Edition, Crown Copyright [Index is against number of crimes 1995] % confident / crime incidents index £ crime spending 86 58 27% 63% £20.2 £29.9 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 £10bn £15bn £20bn £25bn £30bn £35bn Confidence in govt to crack down on crime % Crime Incidents Index Crime Spending Crime provides an example…

11 Similar reputation challenges in local government…

12 QThinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… rubbish or litter lying around? Rubbish and litter less of a problem… Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) 2006

13 QHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following services provided or supported by your local authority?… keeping public land clear of litter and refuse …but local government getting none of credit? *2006 question wording: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you that the local authority has kept this land clear of litter and refuse? Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities). 2006

14 But some optimism following election…

15

16 Base: 17,607 voters at 130 polling stations across Great Britain. Ipsos MORI/GFK NOP/BBC/SKY/ITV 305 255 61 307* 258 57 *NB – Thirsk and Malton is still to declare, but is a safe Tory seat Exit poll accurately predicted seat share in the House of Commons

17 Some questions were raised at 10pm… Iain Dale, Political Pundit, May 6 th, 10:02 PM “So the exit poll shows the Tories on 307 seats, 19 short of an overall majority. It seems too incredible to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true”

18 Do you think that the new government will or will not… …provide stable government? …work as a united team? Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World …deal with the economic crisis effectively? Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 12 th -13th May 2010 The public are fairly optimistic about the new government

19 Most are hopeful rather than fearful… On balance, would you describe yourself as feeling more hopeful or more fearful of what the new government will do? Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World More hopeful More fearful Don’t know Neither Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 12 th -13th May 2010 Both

20 …for you personally? …for the UK? Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World Seen to be good for the UK… Do you think that the new government will be a good thing or a bad thing… Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 12 th -13th May 2010

21 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index +28 -46 -4 -56 Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? +10 +23 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,253 adults)

22 EOI against GDP 12 months later and forecasts Year EOI (%) GDP growth (%) Forecasts taken from HMT average of independent forecasts: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/200908forcomp.pdfhttp://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/200908forcomp.pdf Note: GDP figures have been shifted forward by 12 months (ie 2009 GDP figures are shown against 2008 EOI) Rsq = 0.5

23 So what do people want?

24 “Swedish services for US taxes…”

25 “We now expect more of government than we do of God” 52% of the public agree….

26 Many think government has done too much… Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Split sample between the two statements. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010 In recent years government and public services have tried to do too much, and people should take more responsibility for their own lives I am worried that government and public services will do too little to help people in the years ahead Strongly agreeTend to agreeTend to disagreeStrongly disagree QPlease tell me to what extent you agree or disagree withthe following statement. Source: Ipsos MORI BUT…

27 Many believe we can still have our cake and eat it… To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about public services in Britain? There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the very high national debt we now have Making public services more efficient can save enough money to help cut government spending, without damaging services the public receive Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 % Disagree% Agree

28 Although if we have to choose, we’d protect NHS and schools The NHS/health care Schools The Police Defence Local authority services Benefit payments Social services Care for the elderly Overseas aid Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public spending do you think should be protected from any cuts? None of these Don’t know Base: All who think some services should be protected (773), 19-21 June 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index

29 Huge challenges to get more for less… Will empowerment and local control help?

30 In favour of more public control… Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your own opinion A. The experts who provide and manage public services know best – they should find out what we think and get on with it B. The general public should be much more actively involved in shaping public services, through for example people deciding on priorities Base: 2,019 British adults, fieldwork dates 9 th May – 17 th June

31 …and local control… If neighbourhoods take more responsibility for addressing crime and anti-social behaviour (such as through reporting crime or monitoring community CCTV), they should be given more control over police resources

32 …but want services to be the same everywhere!!! Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your own opinion A. Standards of public services should be the same everywhere in Britain B. The people who live in different parts of Britain should be able to decide for themselves what standard of public services should be provided in their area Base: 2,019 British adults, fieldwork dates 9 th May – 17 th June

33 Doesn’t really matter what service you ask about… Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010 The health service Recycling …should be the same everywhere in Britain People should be able to decide for themselves how … is provided in their area QPlease can you tell me which of these statements comes closest to your own opinion: Source: Ipsos MORI

34 The “postcode lottery” is a national fixation 88 items 136 items 96 items “about 660” Driven by real concerns about fairness NOT a reason to stop local control

35 The party manifestos suggested a difference of emphasis between Labour and Conservatives on the role of the state

36 “Real change comes when the people are inspired and mobilised, when millions of us are fired up to play a part in the nation’s future.” “So my invitation today is this: join us, to form a new kind of government for Britain” “The role of government: to stand by ordinary people so they can change their lives for the better. It is our belief that it is active, reforming government, not absent government, that helps make people powerful.”

37 Impact of previous years of initiatives? QDo you agree or disagree that you can influence decisions affecting your local area? Base: All valid responses from core sample in England (~8,000 surveyed per wave) Source: Citizenship Survey Going to take seismic shift for people to even notice…

38 The Netherlands Canada Australia India Germany The US Great Britain Czech Republic Sweden Mexico Spain Belgium Poland Argentina Brazil France Turkey Italy Russia Hungary South Korea Japan Base: c.1,000 online residents in each countrySource: Ipsos Global @dvisor Does greater involvement/influence work? New evidence from global work… Shaded R 2 = 0.66

39 There is no ladder of involvement… Base: 1,896 GB adults, 18+. Sept 2008. Source: Ipsos MORI Q Levels of involvement/interest in involvement in local services 47% 24% 16% Already involved (4%) Want active involvement (5%) Want more of a say Just want information Don’t care BUT still 1.5m people And 7.2m people

40 Base: All valid responses, 131 local authorities, Place Survey 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Communications still vitally important - no councils that communicate well are poorly rated overall City of London Wandsworth Kensington & Chelsea Westminster Rochdale Hammersmith & Fulham Gedling North Norfolk Rother

41 Speak highly of Council Z Satisfied with the way Council Z runs things 29% The Council has a good reputation with residents 16% The Council is efficient and well run 13% The Council is making the local area a better place to live 9% The Council listens to the concerns of local residents 8% Think Council’s magazine is useful 8% Satisfied with the local area as a place to live 7% Most positive drivers of advocacy amongst the public Advocacy: our analysis shows that being seen to run a tight ship matters Base:All valid responses (1,240). Eight strongest drivers shown; model explains 54% of the variation in responses. 9% Council Z provides value for money

42 Base: All local authorities, Place Survey 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Never been a relationship with council tax on its own, BUT… Wandsworth Kensington & Chelsea Westminster City of London Knowsley Gateshead

43 New technology and openness – huge implications for communications and accountability

44 Huge range of measures… Publishing spending…

45 People will be interested in spending info… QWhich, if any, of the following would you be prepared to do online? QAnd which have you actually done online? Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010 Find details of local doctors and dentists Finding out what public services are spending money on Register to vote Pay your local council tax bill or a parking fine Make a complaint Report a crime

46 Our projections of the future are often wrong

47 Source MORI Benchmarking Network Contacting the Council in the Future – 2002 projection Written Face-to-face Internet/E-mail 1990199520002005201020152020 0 20 40 60 80 % Telephone Projected Observed

48 What actually happened

49 What actually happened…. Base: All residents who have contacted their council, Ipsos MORI face-to-face benchmarking data QHow was your last contact with the council made? Source: Ipsos MORI

50 Staff are vital to all of this – what is their mood?

51 Which of these phrases best describes the way you would speak about the NHS as a whole? Doctors NHS senior clinical managers Practice nurses GPs Hospital nurses -67 -32 -64 -17 ±% Net % Be critical% Speak highly They’re not advocates for public services… Same for councils – even when specific, only 31% speak highly Very strong relationship between staff advocacy and performance

52 What do the best get right? Input into job plans Opportunity to show initiative Base:1500 staff interviewed by phone % very satisfied with job factors/strongly agree ExcellentGood WeakPoor Fair

53 Understanding the purpose of the organisation Understand organisation’s overall objectives Base:1500 staff interviewed by phone % very satisfied with job factors/strongly agree ExcellentGood WeakPoor Fair

54 Which comes from the top… Senior management have a clear vision of where the organisation is going % Disagree ExcellentGoodFair WeakPoor Base: All respondents (1,500). Fieldwork: 12 th – 27 th May 2005

55 Conclusions

56 Immense challenges…  Reality is there have been huge improvements in public services – but not reflected in opinions  Many still don’t realise the significance of the cuts to come  Big Society could be genuinely new approach/mobilise untapped potential – will never be for everyone and will always need communications alongside  Communication emphasis changing – focus on vfm, new channels and letting go, to frontline staff and citizens  But a lot remains consistent – have a clear narrative, knowing what you want to be famous for

57 Thanks for listening bobby.duffy@ipsos.com www.ipsos-mori.com


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