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CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC AND POPULATION TRENDS IN BOTSHABELO: POLICY IMPLICATIONS LEJONE NTEMA AND LOCHNER MARAIS 10 OCTOBER 2013 PRESENTED AT THE STATSSA.

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Presentation on theme: "CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC AND POPULATION TRENDS IN BOTSHABELO: POLICY IMPLICATIONS LEJONE NTEMA AND LOCHNER MARAIS 10 OCTOBER 2013 PRESENTED AT THE STATSSA."— Presentation transcript:

1 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC AND POPULATION TRENDS IN BOTSHABELO: POLICY IMPLICATIONS LEJONE NTEMA AND LOCHNER MARAIS 10 OCTOBER 2013 PRESENTED AT THE STATSSA CONFERENCE ON EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE

2 BACKGROUND Botshabelo was created by apartheid policies As a strategy to ensure displacement of black urbanisation to areas behind “homeland” boundaries Settlements commonly known as hidden urbanities (functionally urban but located away from the functional urban areas) Typical example of fragmented planning

3 POPULATION SIZE IN BOTSHABELO YearPopulation (n)Annual growth rate sine previous year 197927,000 198060,000 1985149,40515.7 1991177,9262.8 1996177,9690.0 2001175,672-0.3 2011151,853-1.4

4 AVERAGE AGE FOR BOTSHABELO POPULATION YearAverage Age 198818 199120 1996 Botshabelo Investment Study24.5 1996 Census23 2001 Census25.8 2011 Census27.1

5 MALE / FEMALE RATIO Year% Female% Male% Female headed households 19915347 1996 Census 1996 BIS54.245.831 200153.746.347 201153.146.946.6

6 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF BOTSHABELO POPULATION Age category 1996 20012011 (n)(%) (n)(%) (n)(%) <6 25,05814.220,788 11.9 20,92013.8 6-12 29,11716.630,533 17.4 21,07413.8 13-17 21,27012.120,372 11.6 15,53110.2 18-29 42,14323.940,276 22.9 36,52124.1 30-39 24,7331425,026 14.2 18,78712.3 40-49 14,9748.517,373 9.9 15,40710.2 50-59 8,4064.89,714 5.5 11,8097.9 60-64 3,4091.93,448 2.0 4,0172.6 65+ 71194.08142 4.6 7,7825.1

7 WATER ACCESS TO HOUSEHOLDS IN BOTSHABELO 199620012011 Percentage of households with water in house 16.64.630.7 Percentage of households with water on stand 24.856.566.6 Percentage of households with water within 200m from stand 58.018.41.4 Other0.620.41.3

8 SANITATION SERVICES PER HOUSEHOLDS 1996 20012011 Flush Toilet 7.3 39.5 VIP 53.348.355.9 Bucket 31.432.32.3 None7.69.31.3 Other0.42.81.0

9 NUMBER OF ROOMS PER HOUSE YearAverage number of rooms per house 19963.02 20013.38 20114.12

10 TYPE OF HOUSING UNITS 199620012011 Formal housing unit 58.462.184.3 Informal housing units 32.426.614.0

11 INTERNAL MIGRATION IN BOTSHABELO South to north (various reasons) Schools closing down – especially the south part of Botshabelo

12 INDUSTRY IN BOTSHABELO Manufacturing sector is dominant in Botshabelo’s industrial area Currently contributing 35% to the economic development of the Botshaeblo’s industrial area In terms of occupancy levels of industrial sites in this area-there was a decline in the past three years The current occupancy level is 80%

13 CONCLUSION Increased access to services Increased housing investment Declining population Declining school population School closures The intention of various IDPs to grow the Botshabelo economy and to invest in Botshabelo Declining occupancy levels in the industrial area How does one reconcile the above?

14 CONTINUED.... Despite improved infrastructure and significant housing investment there is a continued outflow of school going and working age people What does this mean for future planning?


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