Presentation on theme: "Uncertainty analysis in the Thames Estuary Lucy Manning and Hamish Harvey School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University Jim Hall Environmental."— Presentation transcript:
Uncertainty analysis in the Thames Estuary Lucy Manning and Hamish Harvey School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University Jim Hall Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University 1
IPCC AR4 mean sea level projections 2 AR4 2007 Does the UK experience the global mean? Plus additional contribution from ice sheets ?????
3 TE2100 adopted a High++ scenario of 2m mean sea level increase in 2100
What would this mean for closure of the Thames Barrier? 5
For what sea level rise scenarios does gravity drainage continue to work? 6
Decision analysis under uncertainty We consider a two-stage problem: Conventional cost-benefit analysis is applied for the appraisal period considered in TE2100 (i.e. to 2170) We recognise the possibility of long term in vulnerability to high levels of sea level rise. We wish to avoid situations of unacceptable societal risk that society may regret in future. We analyse 1000s of different decision pathways (barriers, defence raising, pumping), along with non-structural measures We provide decision makers with information on ‘short-term’ optimisation and ‘long-term’ regret. We demonstrate how to identify robust flood risk management strategies in complex situations of decision making under uncertainty
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