1. Examining Recent Migration Patterns using the LFS/APS Stephen Drinkwater WISERD School of Business and Economics Swansea University IZA, Bonn and CReAM, UCL

2. Objectives Major recent changes in UK immigration (since Census)  Volume and origin of flows  Nature of flows  Composition of flows  To examine the impact of these flows on the stock of UK immigrants using the LFS/APS  To use information from surveys to try to better identify migration patterns and processes, especially:  Migration specific questions in the APS  Panel element of the LFS

3. Recent Trends in UK Immigration Several sources highlight high level of UK immigration since 2001 e.g. TIM estimates and NINO registrations But very different patterns by areas of origin in the data  EUA8 migration much lower in TIM data because of high percentage of short-term migration (>60% of those registering on the WRS say they will stay <3 months)  Although migration from other countries is similar in recent TIM and NINO data (more inclusive definition in TIM seems to cancel out greater coverage in NINO) TIM estimates and other studies (e.g. Pollard et al., 2007) also suggest significant return migration to EUA8 but very little quantitative information on the extent and composition of return/circular migration from UK

4. Long-Term International Migration to the UK Source: Office for National Statistics

5. NINO Registrations by Overseas Nationals in the UK Source: Department of Work and Pensions

6. Long-Term International Migration from the UK Source: Office for National Statistics

7. Impact on the Amount and Composition of Migrant Stocks Not only have the flows from the EUA8 been very large but the composition and destination of these flows has also been different to other migration waves  Biased towards younger migrants => especially amongst Other EUA8 migrants  Higher percentage of Polish migrants are male  Much more geographically dispersed compared to recent flows from outside the EUA8  LFS/APS data show that this has resulted in a very different population of Polish born people in the UK

8. Age and Gender Composition of Migration Flows to the UK: 2002-2009 % aged 16-24% aged 25-34% aged 35+% male Poles41.839.418.856.3 Other EUA842.537.320.352.2 Other Migrants37.443.818.852.2 Regional Distribution of Migration Flows to the UK: 2002-2009 % London% Other Eng.% Scot.% Wales% NI Poles23.860.49.52.93.4 Other EUA826.260.07.12.24.6 Other Migrants45.845.75.42.01.2 Source: Department of Work and Pensions

9. Source: Census of Population Age and Gender Composition of the UK's Polish Born Population: 2001

10. Age and Gender Composition of the UK's Polish Born Population: 2009 Q2 Source: Annual Population Survey Note: Estimates use 2009 population weights and numbers have been rounded to nearest thousand.

11. Time of arrival (in %) and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2002-3 Source: LFS

12. Time of arrival (in %) and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2004-5 Source: LFS

13. Time of arrival (in %) and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2008-9 Source: LFS MaleFemaleAll Pre-19505.522.614.06 1950-19891.244.672.96 1990s2.343.983.17 2000-38.288.658.47 2004-657.2451.5154.37 2007-925.3828.5726.98 Mean Age30 Median Age282728

14. Migration questions in the APS (SL) The LFS has included questions on year of (first) arrival in the UK, as well as country of birth/nationality, for a long time Some new migration questions have been added over the past few years  Whether migrant has lived continuously in the UK  If answered no, then migrant is asked the year and month of most recent arrival in the UK  These questions will now be used in an attempt to establish migration patterns for recent entrants to the UK, especially amongst A8 migrants

15. Percentage of recent (post-2003) migrants who have lived continuously in the UK by region of origin: 2009 %N EUA897.42600 EU1497.7835 Other Europe95.5490 Asia98.02500 Australasia95.7231 Americas94.8615 Africa98.61243 Only a very low percentage of recent migrants surveyed (incl. from EUA8) said they’d not lived continuously in the UK

16. Difference between year of first and most recent arrival: 2009 Although recent EUA8 migrants appear to have shorter stays => these questions seem to be of fairly limited use  Questions over the reliability of responses (especially for EUA8?) and (partial) coverage of the sample  Not known how many different stays between year of first and most recent arrival => likely to be higher from EUA8 EUA8 migrantsNon-EUA8 migrants 042.7%34.5% 120.6%19.9% 222.1%23.5% 37.4%14.2% 4+7.4%7.0% N68226

17. Using the panel element of the LFS Given that respondents in the LFS should stay in for five waves, individuals can be tracked over time (for just over a year) using the unique identifiers (system variables) The different patterns of response of migrants from particular areas of origin (EUA8) can then be used to provide information on migration patterns However non-response will occur for many other reasons including those who choose no longer to participate or move to another part of the UK Nevertheless this should give a useful indication of differences in migration patterns between groups

18. Details of Sample Sample consists of 16 quarters of data from 2004Q1 to 2007Q4 Under 16s and those aged over 50 have been excluded Only respondents who are potentially in the survey for all 5 waves have been included Patterns of response are identified for four groups of migrants entering the UK from 2003 onwards: those born in Poland, Germany, India and Pakistan Also compared with a control group (born in Wales) because of problem of non-response more generally

19. Pattern of responses (in %) for Recent Migrants by Area of Origin: 2003-7

20. Implications Initial results appear to reveal some interesting patterns despite lots of ‘noise’ in the analysis  Although a very small percentage of the migrant groups remain in all 5 waves, Poles have the highest concentration of non-response => consistent with circular/seasonal migration patterns Analysis seems to be complicated by the addition of new household members in different waves  May be better just to restrict analysis to those appearing in wave 1 and to make other adjustments according to the response patterns of ‘control’ groups Once refinements have been made then should be possible to examine the socio-economic and job characteristics of frequent movers as little/no UK quantitative information on this

21. Conclusion Massive changes in immigration to the UK since 2001 (especially following the 2004 enlargement) Existing quantitative data are patchy so an attempt has been made to use survey data to provide a more complete picture of recent patterns of immigration But success appears to be mixed  Impact on immigrant stocks seems to accurately reflect flows recorded by administrative sources  Additional migration questions in the APS appear to be of limited use  Panel element of LFS highlights some interesting patterns but further work needed to enhance precision