Presentation on theme: "Afghanistan Time to move to Sustainable Jobs International Labour Organisation Afghanistan May 2012."— Presentation transcript:
Afghanistan Time to move to Sustainable Jobs International Labour Organisation Afghanistan May 2012
One programme 3 tracks for post conflict employment creation and reintegration Sustainable Employment creation and Decent Work Pre-Peace Accord Planning ReintegrationTransition Hosting, Local Communities Nation Wide Stabilization Target groups Peace Building Process Peace Negotiations Peace Agreement Pre-assessments Pre-Peace Accord Planning Track A – Stabilizing income generation & emergency Employment Track B – Local Economic recovery for employment opportunities & reintegration Track C - Sustainable Employment creation and Decent Work
Demographic dividend or time bomb? Population pyramid for Afghanistan, 2010 (unit: thousand) Data Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, accessed on 12 April 2012.http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm 0-14 = 49%
Overview of Afghanistan labour market Static Picture as of 2008 12.06 million working-age population 8.03 million in labour force (66.6% LF participation rate) 823,000 unemployed (7.1% unemployment rate) 3.87 million underemployed (48.2% underemployment rate) 6.18 million in vulnerable employment (77.0% of LF) Dynamic Picture Over 400,000 Afghans joining the labour force /yr.
Will Afghanistan produce sufficient number of decent jobs?
What may be happening in the market (apart from the expected impact of transition) Manufacturing base being replaced by cheap imports More immigrants coming to Afghanistan Investors refraining from investment
Currencies of major trade partners depreciate TJS -67% IRR -53% PKR -45% TRY -11% While AFN FOREX remains stable (+1.4%) Compared to 2002, the currencies depreciated against USD by: Data Source) World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance database
Trade data remain approximate … Source) UN COMTRADE 2010 Export record by Afghanistan 2010 Import record by partner co 2010 Export record by partner co 2010 Import record by Afghanistan Pakistan151,343138,375Uzbekistan1,087,927 India65,358107,537China175,265703,845 Turkey34,7755,098Pakistan1,684,666597,503 Iran31,73012,941Japan96,877494,369 Russia29,58522,000Germany356,533422,290 Probable smuggling gaps with top five export and import partner countries * Uzbekistan's export figure is the mirror data reported by Afghanistan Unit : US Dollar thousand
But reported imports from Iran, Pakistan & Turkey jumped significantly Source) UN COMTRADE Trade with Iran Trade with Pakistan Trade with Turkey
Even imports from China, India & Russia sky-rocketed Source) UN COMTRADE Trade with China Trade with India Trade with Russia
Increasing imports of competing products – a source of concern Source) UN COMTRADE Competing imports from Iran Competing imports from Pakistan
Are the policy responses right? Important structural impediments are addressed in NPPs, but no overarching strategy on competitiveness and job creation Analyses of sectoral strategies may be inaccurate or outdated. PDPs favor Soviet type of investment plans without serious consideration of competitiveness, feasibility and private sector-led investment Impact of community livelihood interventions dubious
Recommendations Towards more & better jobs Re-evaluate competitiveness of strategic sectors and Afghan labour in a regional trade environment Track B: Revisit strategies on local economic recovery for employment opportunities and reintegration Track C: Revisit consistency of national development policies towards sustainable job creation and decent work
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