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CSM2002, July 15-17,2002, IIASA, Austria Study on the Metasynthesis of Data, Information, Model and Expert Opinions Gu Jifa Tang Xijin School of Knowledge.

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Presentation on theme: "CSM2002, July 15-17,2002, IIASA, Austria Study on the Metasynthesis of Data, Information, Model and Expert Opinions Gu Jifa Tang Xijin School of Knowledge."— Presentation transcript:

1 CSM2002, July 15-17,2002, IIASA, Austria Study on the Metasynthesis of Data, Information, Model and Expert Opinions Gu Jifa Tang Xijin School of Knowledge Science Institute of Systems Science Japan Advanced Institute of Science AMSS and Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences

2 I. INTRODUCTION For some complex system problems it is often the case we couldn't only use the data and models to solve them, We have to combine the human judgment (qualitative) and mathematical models (quantitative), even more we have to use the Metasynthesis from qualitative to quantitative approach proposed by Prof. Qian et al. This Metasynthesis approach suggested that when solve the problems arisen in the open giant complex system, we must integrate the Data, Information, Knowledge, Models and expert opinions with the help of advanced computer technology.

3 In order to realize this approach there were a lot of Chinese researchers engaged in it. In June of 1999 The National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) had approved a main program titled in "Metasynethetic systems with combination between man and machine for decision support of macroeconomics" (1999-2003). 14 universities and research institutes around 50 professors, research staffs and graduated students

4 There are four subprojects in this program: P1. Information and model systems for macroeconomics and their functions; P2. Metasynthetic systems with combination between man and machine and supporting environment; P3. Metasynthetic method systems and systematology researches for decision support of macroeconomics; P4. Knowledge discovery system (KDD) and cognitive researches for macroeconomics. The main task of subproject P3 is to find the way to realize this metasynthesis approach. II. ORGANIZATION OF MAIN PROGRAM

5 The conceptual model of this project is shown as below. Macro economic s Data Model Method Experience Decision support for macroeconomics

6 After two years research the four research organizations in this subproject-P3 Shanghai Jiaotong University, Xian Jiaotong University, Beijing Normal University and Institute of Systems Science had found some techniques and ways to realize the task individually.

7 Shanghai Jiaotong University had developed the Multi-agent technology to integrate the forecasting models for macroeconomics and Feasible Desirability Method (FDM) to combine the expert opinions, Xian Jiaotong University had developed the design of "common brain" to support unstructured group process. Institute of Systems Science provided the Group Argumentation Environment (GAE) and Metasynthesis Reconstructability Analysis (MRA). to make consensus building After several discussions we had integrated all these techniques and methods altogether and used the web technology to connect them.

8 III.Design of metasynthesis approach 3.1 General design Synchronic stage I (Meeting I) Asynchronous Stage (Analysis) Synchronic stage II (meeting II)

9 3.1 Meeting I (Rough Discussion) 3.1.1. Electronic Common Brain 3.12. Brainstorming 3.1.3. KJ Method 3.1.4. Delphi Method 3.1.5. Group Argumentation Environment (GAE)

10 3.1.1. Electronic Common Brain Zhang Pengzhu and his colleagues from Xian Jiaotong University are now developing a prototype of the Electronic Common Brain, or simply Common Brain, which are useful for the group decision making process. When the experts attend the discussion they may have two kind of discussion Labs: online Discussion Lab and offline discussion Lab. In the first stage people may classify, retrieve, aggregate rough information, then let the information be systematic and input into the database attached to offline discussion Lab. Then in the offline discussion Lab people may make statistics, analyze, verify and reach primitive consensus. Finally people again go to online discussion Lab to run the deeper discussion. They also investigate the problem how to support the group decision making process with unstructured information and propose a tree-structure for information organization in unstructured group process.

11 3.1.5. Group Argumentation Environment (GAE) Tang and Liu in Institute of Systems Science develop a prototype environment for Group argumentation called as Group Argumentation Environment (GAE). It includes three modules: brainstorming argumentation room (BAR), automatic affinity list and nominal group (NG). A synchronous meeting may be taken in BAR. In this stage the different and divergent thinking are encouraged The automatic affinity may help people to analyze and visualize qualitative ideas expressed by experts in a two dimensional map. NG may be used in the second synchronous stage for converging the opinions from experts

12 3.2 Analysis 3.2.1 Model I Econometric Model; Time Series Model 3.2.2 Model II Multi-agent Model 3.2.3. Model III New economic model 3.2.4. Model from outside 3.2.5. Model Integration

13 3.3. Meeting II 3.3.1. Metasynthesis Reconstructibility Analysis(MRA) 3.3.2. Feasible Desirable method (FDM) 3.3.3. Consensus Building

14 3.3.1. Metasynthesis Reconstructibility Analysis(MRA) systemreconstructability analysisKlir proposed system reconstructability analysis in 1976. In China we had developed this methods both in theory and metasynthesis practice. We combine this analysis with metasynthesis, and wish apply it in solving the complex system problems, like the comprehensive evaluation of social-economical-environmental- ecological impacts of the three gorges project, biotechnology, engineering design, forecasting and risk analysis etc. recently we are planning to use it in the macroeconomic decision making. After modification we can use the data, information and knowledge altogether. Shu has developed this method as Metasynthesis Reconstructability Analysis and used them to forecast the growth rate of GDP in China.

15 Year (1) (2) (3) 1987 11.6 11.0057 11.385 1988 11.3 12.515 11.8706 1989 4.1 12.3064 4.5313 1990 3.8 6.53981 3.82484 1991 9.2 13.5869 8.73321 1992 14.2 14.2655 14.326 1993 13.5 14.6255 12.075 1994 12.6 12.7926 13.206 1995 10.5 7.35298 9.9316 1996 9.6 7.06571 9.09417 1997 8.8 7.2239 8.03538 1998 7.8 7.08204 8.07829 (1)GDP(growth rate) in Yearbook (2)GDP forecasted (3)GDP forecasted with considering the knowledge

16 Working flowchart of Metasynthesis Approach Data Information Knowledge Case Models from outside Meeting I Analysis Model III Model II Model I Meeting II Model Integration MRA FDM Consensus I Consensus II

17 Working flowchart of Metasynthesis Approach (with organizations) Data(710,TU) Information(AM) Knowledge Case(HU) (XJU) Models from outside Meeting I Analysis Model III Model II Model I Meeting II Model Integration MRA FDM Consensus I Consensus II (ISS) (710,AM) (PU) (BNU,SJU) (SJU,ISS) (ISS) (SJU) (ISS)

18 3.3.3. Consensus Building Definition Useful methods and tools for building consensus Method Effective and efficiency meeting system

19 Definition of consensus 1. Agreement of opinions 2. Conformity of different parts in a system # Consensus in various mathematical meanings Physics MCDM (Pareto) Fuzzy Mathematical Statistics Game theory Risk Rough

20 Consensus under fuzziness( Kacpryzyk, Nurmi and Fedrizzi edited 1997, Kluwer Academic Publishers) Fuzzy preferences Fuzzy majorities Degree of consensus(CON): most of the relevant individuals agree as to almost all of the important alternatives Fuzzy aggregation: OWA(Ordered weighted averaging operator); Fuzzy linguistic quantifiers Degree of Q1/Q2/I/B-consensus Degree of  /Q1/Q2/I/B-consensus Degree of s/Q1/Q2/I/B-consensus I :Important; Q1:number of pairs of relevant alternatives; Q2:number of pairs of important individuals;  :degree sufficient s:degree of strength Additional agreement indicators: Contribution to consensus( CTC); Personal consensus degree( PCD); Detailed personal consensus Degree( DPCD); Contribution to consensus for options( OCD); Option consensus degree( OCD)

21 Mediator (Polish Systems Research Institute) Borda definition Condorcet definition Coombs definition Copeland definition French Election type definition Hare definition Minmax definition Nanson definition Plurality definition

22 Useful methods and tools for building consensus Email Internet Intranet Teamware Groupware Cooperative system Coordination system Collaborative system BBS ( Bulletin Board System) Teleconferencing system Computerized conferencing EMS (Electronic Mail System) Electronic conference system GDSS ( Group Decision Support System) CSCW (Computer Supported Cooperative Work) Decision room Discussion Hall Virtual Reality

23 Effective and efficiency meeting Meeting type Schedule for meeting Facilitation Mediation

24 Data Meeting Tool Method Consensus Data Meeting Tool Method Consensus DMTMC system

25 IV. Conclusion Though the mentioned key project is under progress, but we found some specific features during running the project. They are: 1) Follow some system methodologies, like metasynthesis system approach, Wuli-Shili-Renli (WSR) system approach and Spiral Propulsion system approach; 2) Provide economic data base, economic information, data mining; 3) Design the meeting, using Common Brain,GAE etc ; 4) Provide different economic models, and model integration; 5) Provide metasynthesis methods, which may synthesize the data, information, models and experience, e.g. NGT, AHP, System reconstruction, and some consensus methods, such as voting, group decision methods; 6) Study on the some theoretical topics related to the economic complex systems.

26 Reference 1.Tang X.J. and Liu Y.J., A prototype environment for Group Argumentation, presentation on MCS2002, August 7,2002, Shanghai 2.Cheng Shaochuan, Sun JingIe, Liu Ming-de, On support paradigm of group decision argument, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 366-370, 2002 3.Hu Daiping, Wang Huanchen, Building forecasting model system in workshop for hall of metasynthetic engineering to support macroeconomy decision, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 335-339, 2002 4.Shu Guangfu, Meta-synthetic system reconstruction and application in macro-economic researches, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 349-353, 2002 5. Tang Xijin, Model integration, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 322-329, 2002 6. Shen Huizhang, Wang Huanchen, Methodology based evolution modeling for macroeconomics systems analysis, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 389-393, 2002 7.Ge Xinyuan, Waang Dahui, Yuan Qiang, Fang Fukang, General multi-sector dynamic economic model andits reasonability analysis, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 397-401, 2002 8. Gu Jifa, On synthesizing opinions-how can we reach consensus, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 366-370, 2002

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