Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios Glenn Horrocks John Tonitto BWRS.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios Glenn Horrocks John Tonitto BWRS."— Presentation transcript:

1 Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios Glenn Horrocks John Tonitto BWRS

2 Scenarios Tower Logs Witness Report: Blenman Witness Report: 4wd party

3 Stochastic Analysis

4 Scenario 1: Tower Logs NominalSTDSource Tower bearing at 19:36:00320°2°Log transcript Tower range at 19:36:0048NM0.5NMLog transcript Aircraft Heading140°10°Log transcript Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00145 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Aircraft air speed at stall85 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Time of crash19:39:2735 secondsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 8000’43 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 6000’33 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind direction230°10°John Watson’s analysis Bank rate at 19:36:000°/s0.1°/sGH and JT experience Bank rate acceleration0°/s °/s 2 GH and JT experience

5 Burraga Swamp Mt Lumeah Careys Peak Track Allyn River Paterson River Burraga Swamp Mt Lumeah

6 Scenario 2: Blenman NominalSTDSource Blenman’s Location Eyewitness account – JT Time of Blenman’s sighting19:38:300Eyewitness account – JT Aircraft distance from Blenman 7km0.5NMEyewitness account – JT Aircraft bearing from Blenman 240°2°Eyewitness account – JT Aircraft Heading45°30°Eyewitness account – JT Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00145 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Aircraft air speed at stall85 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Time of crash19:39:2735 secondsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 8000’43 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 6000’33 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind direction230°10°John Watson’s analysis Bank rate at 19:36:000°/s0.1°/sGH and JT experience Bank rate acceleration0°/s °/s 2 GH and JT experience

7 Burraga Swamp Paterson River Allyn River Mt Lumeah

8 Scenario 3: 4wd NominalSTDSource Location at 19:31: NMEyewitness account – JT Aircraft Heading45°30°Eyewitness account – JT Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00145 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Aircraft air speed at stall85 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment Time of crash19:39:2735 secondsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 8000’43 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind speed at 6000’33 knots10 knotsJohn Watson’s analysis Wind direction230°10°John Watson’s analysis Bank rate at 19:36:000°/s0.1°/sGH and JT experience Bank rate acceleration0°/s °/s 2 GH and JT experience

9 Burraga Swamp Paterson RiverAllyn River Williams River Careys Peak Track Rawdon Vale (25km W of Gloucester)

10 Burraga Swamp Paterson River Allyn River Careys Peak Track Mt Lumeah


Download ppt "Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios Glenn Horrocks John Tonitto BWRS."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google