Presentation on theme: "0 David Durrheim, Chris Kewley, Nadine White & Meredith Caelli Preparing for the next influenza pandemic?"— Presentation transcript:
0 David Durrheim, Chris Kewley, Nadine White & Meredith Caelli Preparing for the next influenza pandemic?
1 Preparing for the next pandemic Not if but when! What will the consequences be? Hunter New England Health Planning and Your Role
2 What is required for a pandemic? Emergence of new Influenza A subtype Must cause disease in humans Must have ability to spread easily from person to person
3 Not if but when! BIOLOGY Mutates - Annual “drift” Mutates and reassorts (mixes) “shift” Transmission: Respiratory droplets Surfaces/hands
4 History! What makes our generation so special that what has always happened through history, will not affect us?
5 Human H5N1 – severe!
6 Preparation essential “Only two mutations are necessary to make avian influenza easily transmissible amongst humans. Prepare as if it will happen tomorrow” David Nabarro, WHO
8 Effect of a pandemic in NSW - clinical capacity (assumes three month pandemic and 35 per cent attack rate) Expected hospitalisations Expected patients requiring mech. ventilation Inter-pandemic period Mild pandemic (Hong Kong pandemic) (8% )9 800 (50% ) Severe pandemic (Spanish influenza pandemic) (70% ) (430% )
9 Pandemic response Surveillance Containment Quarantine Act, 1908 Border control Social distancing Quarantine (contacts) and isolation (cases) Infection control Antivirals Immunisation Maintenance of health services
10 Vaccination program StartFinish Why contain?
11 Preparedness to date Area Pandemic Planning Executive - Coordination of plans for all areas and facilities (2007) Workforce Planning - Modelling the impact - The challenge of surge and business continuity Critical service identification Workforce profile & competencies Secondary workforce mapping to competencies Workshop 3 April Health care worker perception survey
12 Sequencing Workforce to Demand
13 Corporate Public health OC&L Mental Health MWDU Nursing & Midwifery. Allied Health BioComms Clinical Operations HR PI Workforce Taskforce Comms Working Group Bio Nursing & Midwifery Working Group Allied Health Working Group MWDU Working Group Corporate PI Exec Mgt Comm. Clinical Operations PI Exec Mgt Comm. Mental Health Working Group OC&L Working Group Public health Working Group HR WG HNEH Pandemic Executive Workforce Planning & Development Unit Support PI Workforce Taskforce Structure
14 Preparedness to date Pandemic exercises Exercise Ring O’ Rosies (March 2008) Exercise Forest Gump (Sept 2008) – each ED/MPS, public health surveillance surge, community enquiries