1. 0 David Durrheim, Chris Kewley, Nadine White & Meredith Caelli Preparing for the next influenza pandemic?

2. 1 Preparing for the next pandemic Not if but when! What will the consequences be? Hunter New England Health Planning and Your Role

3. 2 What is required for a pandemic? Emergence of new Influenza A subtype Must cause disease in humans Must have ability to spread easily from person to person

4. 3 Not if but when! BIOLOGY Mutates - Annual “drift” Mutates and reassorts (mixes) “shift” Transmission: Respiratory droplets Surfaces/hands

5. 4 History! What makes our generation so special that what has always happened through history, will not affect us?

6. 5 Human H5N1 – severe!

7. 6 Preparation essential “Only two mutations are necessary to make avian influenza easily transmissible amongst humans. Prepare as if it will happen tomorrow” David Nabarro, WHO

8. 7 CONSEQUENCES

9. 8 Effect of a pandemic in NSW - clinical capacity (assumes three month pandemic and 35 per cent attack rate) Expected hospitalisations Expected patients requiring mech. ventilation Inter-pandemic period325 0006 500 Mild pandemic (Hong Kong pandemic) 352 000 (8%  )9 800 (50%  ) Severe pandemic (Spanish influenza pandemic) 549 000 (70%  )34 400 (430%  )

10. 9 Pandemic response Surveillance Containment Quarantine Act, 1908  Border control  Social distancing  Quarantine (contacts) and isolation (cases)  Infection control  Antivirals  Immunisation Maintenance of health services

11. 10 Vaccination program StartFinish Why contain?

12. 11 Preparedness to date Area Pandemic Planning Executive - Coordination of plans for all areas and facilities (2007) Workforce Planning - Modelling the impact - The challenge of surge and business continuity Critical service identification Workforce profile & competencies Secondary workforce mapping to competencies Workshop 3 April 2008 - Health care worker perception survey

13. 12 Sequencing Workforce to Demand

14. 13 Corporate Public health OC&L Mental Health MWDU Nursing & Midwifery. Allied Health BioComms Clinical Operations HR PI Workforce Taskforce Comms Working Group Bio Nursing & Midwifery Working Group Allied Health Working Group MWDU Working Group Corporate PI Exec Mgt Comm. Clinical Operations PI Exec Mgt Comm. Mental Health Working Group OC&L Working Group Public health Working Group HR WG HNEH Pandemic Executive Workforce Planning & Development Unit Support PI Workforce Taskforce Structure

15. 14 Preparedness to date Pandemic exercises  Exercise Ring O’ Rosies (March 2008)  Exercise Forest Gump (Sept 2008) – each ED/MPS, public health surveillance surge, community enquiries