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Lower Murray Landscape Futures – Dryland Areas Evaluating current NRM targets with policy options and scenario analyses Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land.

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Presentation on theme: "Lower Murray Landscape Futures – Dryland Areas Evaluating current NRM targets with policy options and scenario analyses Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lower Murray Landscape Futures – Dryland Areas Evaluating current NRM targets with policy options and scenario analyses Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land and Water

2 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Project Aims The Lower Murray Landscape Futures Project A tri-catchment, multi state collaborative research project which aims to: 1.Analyse the impact of existing regional NRM plans and investment strategies on natural resources, with consideration given to community well-being (social, economic and environmental outcomes), and; 2.Explore future options and scenarios for the Lower Murray in partnership with stakeholders in the region. Project has 2 core components: 1.River Corridor 2.Dryland

3 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Analysis of NRM Plans and Landscape Futures

4 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Regional Plans & Targets Reviewed 15 relevant Regional Plans and Investment Strategies Targets: 173 Aspirational Targets 252 Resource Condition Targets 1252 Management Action Targets 3 key environmental objectives relevant to dryland agricultural areas: Biodiversity Deep Drainage and River Salinity Wind Erosion + Climate Change

5 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Policy Options for Achieving Targets Six policy options for reaching regional targets including: Go Anywhere – actions located at random Cheapest – actions located in areas of lowest economic cost Best for Biodiversity – actions located in areas with greatest biodiversity benefit Best for NRM - actions located in areas with greatest overall benefit for biodiversity, deep drainage, wind erosion, climate change Most Cost Effective - actions located in areas with greatest overall benefit and cheapest cost With a sixth special case policy option: Sustainability Ideal – as for Most Cost Effective but with a new target set aimed at long term sustainability

6 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Alternative Future Scenarios S0 – Baseline * Climate – current (historical mean) Carbon trading – none Biomass – no market Biofuels – no market S1 – Mild Warming/Drying Climate – 1 o C warming, 5% drying Carbon trading – $15/tonne CO 2 e Biomass – $50/tonne Biofuels – %150 current price (wheat/canola) S2 – Moderate Warming/Drying Climate – 2 o C warming, 15% drying Carbon trading – $7/tonne CO 2 e Biomass – $40/tonne Biofuels – %130 current price (wheat/canola) S3 – Severe Warming/Drying Climate – 4 o C warming, 25% drying Carbon trading – $2/tonne CO 2 e Biomass – $30/tonne Biofuels – %110 current price (wheat/canola) S4 – Mild Warming/Wetting Climate – 1 o C warming, 5% wetting Carbon trading – $15/tonne CO 2 e Biomass – $50/tonne Biofuels – %150 current price (wheat/canola)

7 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Natural Resource Management Actions Six on-ground NRM actions considered: Areas of Remnant Native Vegetation 1.Remnant vegetation management (stock exclusion, weed control etc.) Cleared Agricultural Areas 2.Ecological restoration (local native species/communities) 3.Conservation farming (stubble retention, minimum tillage) 4.Deep-rooted perennials (fodder crops – lucerne, saltbush) 5.Biomass (Eucalyptus plantations for renewable energy, oil, activated carbon) 6.Biofuels (wheat/canola rotation for ethanol, biodiesel production) The spatial distribution of NRM actions in the landscape is a landscape future Landscape futures have associated impacts: environmental, economic, and social

8 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component NRM Actions for Environmental Benefits

9 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Research Structure and Methods

10 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Analysis of Regional Plans

11 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component SAMDB NRM Board – S0 Baseline Biodiversity Improve condition of 50% of vegetation on private land Protect and enhance 10,000ha of vegetation 50% of 6 specific threatened communities protected Increase area of priority vegetation protected to >2,000ha Biodiversity Increase cover by 1% in agricultural region Re-establish 950ha of vegetation to provide links in priority areas Wind Erosion 40% reduction in agricultural land at risk of wind erosion in each June Increased trend in soil carbon levels in cropping soils Deep Drainage & River Salinity Establish 25,000ha of perennial vegetation Maintain salinity of River Murray below 800EC at Morgan 95% of the time

12 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Environmental and Economic Indicators Remnant VegetationGo AnywhereCheapest Best for BiodiversityBest for NRM Most Cost Effective Sustainability Ideal Remnant Vegetation Management (ha)767,272767,219767,217 767,219401,674 Total Biodiversity Benefits1,860,2621,790,1401,939,934 1,909,7101,007,362 Net Economic Returns ($/yr)-$2,060,505-$238,447-$2,844,646 -$981,435-$1,149,439 Cleared Agricultural Areas Ecological Restoration (ha)311,27630,748 256,600 722,658 Conservation Farming (ha)312,984225,852445,9530037 Deep-rooted Perennials (ha)307,90925,000455,46825,000 14 Biofuels (ha)000000 Biomass (ha)000000 Total Biodiversity Benefits1,686,213151,002386,5531,607,3721,624,3323,813,042 Total Wind Erosion Benefits7,355,0842,634,5377,012,1883,381,8843,338,0857,875,311 High Wind Erosion Areas Managed (ha)227,754244,043226,397204,830214,861567,860 Total Deep Drainage Benefits503,78356,853419,584443,522418,8931,503,200 High Deep Drainage Areas Managed (ha)37,4803,86331,66822,31321,856148,610 Total Carbon Benefits3,555,109256,576417,5202,873,9412,775,4588,014,248 CO 2 -e (t)3,073,411245,564339,9112,516,0172,453,9746,995,393 # Cars Off The Road765,71961,18084,686626,848611,3901,742,853 Ethanol Produced (l)000000 Biodiesel Produced (l)000000 Megawatt Hours000000 % Pre-European Veg Communities > 15%8967737574100 % Climate Zones > 15%96688271 100 % Soil Classes > 15%1009210092 100 % Bioregions > 15%100739182 100 Net Economic Returns ($/yr)-$62,108,996-$3,575,532-$35,494,873-$36,670,230-$32,820,893-$91,242,263

13 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Landscape Futures Analyses

14 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Landscape Futures S0 – Baseline S1 – Mild Warming/Drying S2 – Moderate Warming/Drying S3 – Severe Warming/Drying S4 – Mild Warming/Wetting

15 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Biophysical and Economic Impacts and Trade-Offs

16 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Socio-Economic Impacts Input-Output & Demographic Analysis Indicators include: Contribution to Gross Regional Product Employment Household income Population Migration Flow-on Effects Direct Effects

17 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Key Messages So Far… Regarding regional NRM plans, some targets are: Very expensive to achieve (e.g. By 2020… increase vegetation cover by 1% in the agricultural region) Impossible to achieve (e.g. Reduce recharge by improving dryland water use efficiency by 70% across the region by 2020). Already achieved (e.g. By 2020 to have constrained the area of salt affected land within the region to 120,000 ha). Too vaguely specified to address Difficult to monitor or assess Unlikely to achieve aspirational sustainability targets Regional planning for NRM should: Be founded in landscape scale biophysical science, economics, and social science Establish quantitative and evidence-based targets likely to achieve long-term sustainability Be spatially explicit and use rich spatio-temporal information Utilise concepts of risk, cost, benefit, and priority-setting Use decision theory and multiple criteria planning principles Understand and be robust to uncertainty Be forward thinking and anticipate future change, surprises, shocks

18 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Key Messages So Far... Analysis of landscape futures: The location and type of actions profoundly affects the costs and benefits of achieving targets Smart spatial prioritisation of investment can capitalise on multiple benefits and economic returns of NRM actions Policy choices are at least as influential on landscape futures as external drivers (climate change, technology, commodity prices) Widespread adoption of NRM actions can have a strong effect on the regional economy and population Achieving targets is costly but economic drivers can dramatically decrease the cost of achieving regional targets New industries such as biomass, biofuels, & carbon trading may be economically viable in some areas and can contribute significantly to regional targets Carbon trading and biomass production may offer more resilient production systems than traditional agriculture

19 CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component Conclusion Natural resource management: Is expensive and difficult to motivate on a large scale Regional plans direct regional investment in NRM actions Potential to have long-lasting impacts on regional environment, economy, and society Often, the impacts of widespread NRM actions are unknown Analysis of landscape futures enables: Informed, evidence-based evaluation of regional planning Quantification of triple-bottom-line impacts of targets Spatial targeting of NRM actions Ex-ante (“beforehand”) policy analysis Estimation of future impacts of external climate and market drivers Comparison of trade-offs Remaining challenges for the LMLF Project Communication, adoption, and impact

20 Thank you CSIRO Land and Water Dr Neville Crossman Research Scientist Phone: +61 8 8303 8663 Email: Web: Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Web: Land Technologies Alliance: DWLBC (SA) DPI Victoria + PIRVic CSIRO Land and Water University of Adelaide SARDI Regional NRM Stakeholders: SA MDB NRM Group (SA) Mallee CMA (Vic) Wimmera CMA (Vic) Lower Murray-Darling CMA (NSW) Murray-Darling Basin Commission Lower Murray Tri-State NRM Forum Water for a Healthy Country

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