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Scenario Study Operation Future „Germany 2020“
© UNITY, WJD Basic Principles of the Scenario Technique Multiple future Scenarios todayfuture horizon time Networked thinking We can consider more than one development of an influence factor. “A scenario is generally understood as a description of a possible future situation which is based on a complex net of influence factors as well as on the presentation of a progression which from the present point of view could lead to this situation.“ Risk propensity Competi- tiveness Economic growth Price stability Purchasing power Wage level Product stability Staff motivation Technical efficiency Forms of work organisation We have to consider the cross linking of influence factors.
© UNITY, WJD Analyzing cross impacts, identifying key factors The scenario field includes a cross linked system of influence factors. The relevant influence factors (key factors) will be determined with the help of cross linked analysis. Characterizing development potentials Most of the key factors have lots of possibilities to progress (future projections). These are to be described generally comprehensible and precisely and to be justified, if required. Identifying influence factors The Company (field of operation) is incorporated into a complex system of influence factors. These describe the environment of a company (scenario field). today future todayfuture Sector environment sector global environment politics economy society technology environment markets substitutes distributors complements Company Scenario Based Strategic Management (1/5) Influence factors and possible developments
© UNITY, WJD today future todayfuture Identifying consistent future images (scenarios) The consistency rating of paired future projections leads to scenarios, i.e. combinations of future projections which fit well together. Describing scenarios »in prose« Writing out the scenarios. This is based upon the descriptions of future projects. Scenario 2: ›› An agile medium sized business uses the chances of diversity‹‹ Scenario 1: ›› During a depression everything is centered about the costs ‹‹...World economy is affected by great trade blocs like the EU. Protectionism dominates and depressive tendencies emerge. At the business location in Germany grave cost disadvantages still exist. Scenario Based Strategic Management (2/5) Possible situations in the future Characterizing development potentials Most of the key factors have lots of possibilities to progress (future projections). These are to be described generally comprehensible and precisely and to be justified, if required.
© UNITY, WJD Identifying the effects of the scenarios What has to be done in the fields of operation to give consideration to the scenarios? Describing scenarios »in prose« Writing out the scenarios. This is based upon the description of the future projections. Market services Production Distribution channels Pre-sales support After-sales support E-business Staff qualification Field of operation Scenario 1 Depression Effects Consequences and steps Scenario field Companies Business sector Products Scenario 2: ›› An agile medium sized business uses the chances of diversity‹‹ Scenario 1: ›› During a depression everything is centered about the costs ‹‹...World economy is affected by great trade blocs like the EU. Protectionism dominates and depressive tendencies emerge. At the business location in Germany grave cost disadvantages still exist. Strategic alternative A Strategic alternative B Future-robust options Determination of options Identification of the course of action which is based on several scenarios (future-robust options). Detecting alternative bundles of options (strategic alternatives) which are based on specific scenarios. Scenario Based Strategic Management (3/5) Effects regarding the field of operation Scenario 2 Agile business
© UNITY, WJD Strategic alternative A Strategic alternative B future-robust options Determination of scenario reference What is the most probable scenario due to today‘s noticeable development? Identification of indicators for the strategic controlling. Developing a strategy Choice of scenarios which are probable from today‘s view. Based upon indicator characteristics. Verbalization of a strategy as well as an eventual strategy based upon strategic options. Today‘s position Strategic competences Strategic position of success (SEP) Strategic position Strategic business units Based on competences: which strategic position should the company strive for? Which strategic competences are necessary for the occupation aimed at? Influence on the field of operation Scenario 2 Scenario 1 „Probability“ Identification of the indicators of strategic controlling Scenario Based Strategic Management (4/5) Strategy development Determination of options Identification of the course of action which is based on several scenarios (future-robust options). Detecting alternative bundles of options (strategic alternatives) which are based on specific scenarios. Mission
© UNITY, WJD Strategy controlling Monitoring the indicators of the scenario field and registration of so- called weak signals (early education system). Rotational revision of the premises/ estimates of strategic planning. Implementation of strategy Interlocking the strategic and the operative planning with the help of operationalizing the objectives - e.g. using Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Controlling the implementation of procedures. Trend report Targets KPI Measures Person in charge Scenario Based Strategic Management (5/5) Implementation of strategy Strategic competences Strategic position of success (SEP) Strategic position Strategic business units Based on competences which strategic position should the company strive for? Which strategic competences are necessary for the occupation aimed at? Developing a strategy Choice of scenarios which are probable from today‘s view. Based upon indicator characteristics. Verbalization of a strategy as well as an eventual strategy based upon strategic options. Today‘s position Mission
© UNITY, WJD 4 Future scenarios
© UNITY, WJD Public voice in 2020 “I think it is great what opportunities myself and my children have these days. For me personally it has always beeen important to manage job and family. Today, however, the kids are staying with their grandparentes as we are heiping reconstruct the local communications.“ Annabell Klein, 33, innovation manager, automotive Scenario charateristics: renaissance of families – with priority on values ordoliberalism – liberties are used with care Lifelong learning – knowledge becomes common good Everyone helps everyone – voluntary work has a high value Sustainable – change to alternative energies has been completed Schumpeter´s ideal – creative enterprise becomes the rule Young families strive for knowledge, the older generations share their know-how. In a well- balanced society responsible entrepreneurs and responsible management are appreciated. With vigour people try to achieve their goals and commit themselves to the public good. Germany 2020: a successful society with opportunities for everyone. WONDERFUL WORLD Scenario 1 – Wonderful World
© UNITY, WJD Public voice in 2020 “Why should I not make money at the cost of others? Let´s be honest: tax evasion and financial fraud are no more than trifling offences these days. Whoever plays according to the rules is a fool. Or would you like to be poor?“ Armin Reuter, 54, entrepreneur Scenario characteristics: Old and lonely – more and more people live alone Stabile, but focused backwards –the German economy slows down Orwell´s 1984 becomes more and more reality – good education is a priviledge of the élite Everyone looks after one´s own interests – shameless managers dominate the economy Opportunistic „good deeds“ – voluntary work for one´s one interest only The gap gets bigger – Germany is on its way to a two-class society People are prepared to do almost anything for their own advantage as the air gets thinner: good education for the élite only, the gap between the rich and the poor becomes bigger. Irresponsible managers dictate the economy. Families fall by the wayside, older people find themselves alone more frequently. Germany 2020: a rough society where the weakest go to the wall. A WORLD OF IRRESPONSIBLE INCOME OPPORTUNISTS Scenario 2 – a world of irresponsible income opportunists
© UNITY, WJD Public voice in 2020 “As a child I always wanted to study in Australia, but then I lost interest in school and all that. Now I go begging and steal a Euro here and there. So what? Those up there leave you no choice!“ Daniel Kiermeier, 38, currently unemployed Many people have not made it – Germany consists of rich and poor only. Many young, well educated families have left the country. Those who remain in Germany are not interested in education, egoism is their main purpose. Volunteers are viewed as idealistic lunatics. Germany 2020: We are on the brink. Scenario characteristics: Brain-Drain – academics try their luck abroad Large-scale companies as secure home ports – entrepreneurship is not in fashion any longer “I come first“-mentality – voluntary work is unthinkable Stupid and yet more stupid – people are not interested in education Imprisoned in a ghetto – social advancement is hardly possible Poor and rich – Germany as a two- tier system EGOISTS IN A TWO- TIER SYSTEM Scenario 3 – two-class society of egoists
© UNITY, WJD Public voice in 2020 “What do you want? Go away! I don´t want to talk to anyone. What my family is up to? How am I to know? I don´t care. The same crap every day. But you don´t care anyway. Who cares about me? Now get lost!“ Karsten Kaufmann, 45, worker Suspicious looks behind closed windows – the world has turned dark. People go to work without enthusiasm every day, social advancement is regarded as impossible. A small élite steers the country in its own interest. The majority resigns and throws values like ethics and moral overboard. Germany 2020: social unrest is in the air. Scenario characteristics: A tiny top, broad masses – élites dominate the society Born poor, died poor – social advancement is impossible Decay of values – egoisms and envy dominate Childless society of old people – Germany dies out The last entrepreneur – achievement is no longer appreciated Homo-Apathicus – Resignation! Frustration! Unrest? COLD Scenario 4 – Cold
© UNITY, WJD 14 Five strategic excellence positions (SEP) 1.Providing respectable entrepreneurship 2.Supporting work AND family 3.Investing in education 4.Creating national and international networks 5.Being strong in innovations and conscious of resources We want to face these scenarios and serve our society in the following 5 fields with our expertise: Programme of JCI Germany
© UNITY, WJD Results of „Operation future – Germany 2020“
© UNITY, WJD 2. Strategy Results of „Operation Future – Germany 2020“ Content: Impact of the szenarios on the work of our organisation Strategic Plan/Programme for the whole organisation 1. Szenario Study Base for the strategy Content: Future szenarios
© UNITY, WJD 4. Ambassador Training Results of „Operation Future – Germany 2020“ Content: Presentation material on 1-3 Toolkit to inform and inspire others (internally and externally) 3. Future Navigator Tools for the local organisations Content: Recommendations and practical hints for local organisations work Toolkit with: Study Strategy Future Navigator Speech Presentations (ger./en.) SEP-Flyer Flyer political positions JCI Germany short movie
© UNITY, WJD „Operation future – Germany 2020“ join us and let‘s combine forces for a better future
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