Presentation on theme: "2007 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2007 Vancouver 2007 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2007 Vancouver Mortality Improvement."— Presentation transcript:
2007 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2007 Vancouver 2007 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2007 Vancouver Mortality Improvement
Agenda Historical improvement Canada-Hardy’s paper Difference with the USA Improvement by cause of deaths Future improvement
Hardy Study Population data: 1921-2002 Insured data: 1982-2001 (Ultimate only) No smoking status before 1992 Insured data less reliable as influenced by underwriting requirements changes over the period covered.
Improvement rates are ultimate and aggregate –Lack of data does not permit select rates, nor smoker distinct rates. –Projection of mortality improvement for periods longer than 25 years should be regarded with great caution. –Cohort effect may exist but impact is mild.
Historical Mortality Improvement Rates: Hardy Study (1921-2002)
Mortality Improvement Canada Male Population Female Population
Impact on life insurance –Will probably keep increasing unless major changes in behaviors. Government campaigns? Research? –Risk factors for CVD have decreases over the last 40 years, except for diabetes, and this for all levels of BMI *. * JAMA, April 20, 2005 – Vol 293, No. 15
Future- Advanced Medical Research Stem cell Research Cellular rejuvenation –Repair broken telomeres Cancer
Update on Mortality Improvement Sub-committee Goal: Propose mortality improvement basis for annuity and life insurance valuation Current draft of proposal: – Best estimate improvement scales would be the same for life insurance and for annuity business – Mortality Improvement assumption would have it’s own PfAD (insurance and annuity PfADs would be in opposite directions) – Mortality improvement rates based on Hardy’s paper (Data from 1921 to 2002)