# Introduction to Research Concepts using the Card Probability Study Chapter 1 Thomas and Nelson.

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Introduction to Research Concepts using the Card Probability Study Chapter 1 Thomas and Nelson

How does the card probability study, conducted in the previous class, fit into the basic to applied research continuum? Basic because it was controlled. Applied because is addressed an immediate problem this study of probability fits into both, so in the middle

Lacking in ecological validity because it was not similar to a real-life situation. Ie. We didn’t just do the experiment and let it happen naturally, it was more of a laboratory experiment. Internal validity with us is stronger because we did it in the “lab” study, we know this makes our results more accurate, This decreases our external validity because our findings were with the same group of people, which could not allow us to generalize to our population In what ways was the study lacking in ecological validity? How does this relate to the internal and external validity of the study?

Which variable, to stay or switch would better produce a win. What would have been the problem statement for the card probability study?

1) Staying with the original card each time would be more successful in the outcome 2) Switching from the original card each time would be more successful in the outcome 3) Regardless of the switch or stay the outcome will be the same. List three potential hypotheses that could have been put forth prior to the study.

1) Tenacity: belief without evidence, staying no matter what even if they are not winning. 2) Intuition: staying because they think its “their card”, or the last card dealer touches will always be the card( like a superstition) 3) Authority: based on authority, stay because they said to stay. 4) Empirical: staying based on winning the first two from staying, so basing it on previous wins, its based on data. 5) Rationalistic: basing on perception. Provide four unscientific methods of problem solving and give an example of how each could be applied to solving our problem statement.

Independent: (2 levels; stay or switch) choice of play Dependent: outcome or winning percentage. What were the independent and dependent variables in the study? How many levels of each independent variable were there?

Was the study experimental in nature? Explain

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