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Smart & Green Family Policy for a Strong Saskatchewan Economy Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership November.

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Presentation on theme: "Smart & Green Family Policy for a Strong Saskatchewan Economy Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership November."— Presentation transcript:

1 Smart & Green Family Policy for a Strong Saskatchewan Economy Dr. Paul Kershaw University of British Columbia Human Early Learning Partnership November 15, 2010 North Battleford & Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

2 of kindergarten children are vulnerable in Saskatchewan. Vulnerability above 10% is not biologically necessary. 27% Most vulnerable children are not poor!

3 Life Course Problems Related to Early Life 2 nd Decade 3 rd /4 th Decade 5 th /6 th Decade Old Age School Failure Teen Pregnancy Criminality Obesity Elevated Blood Pressure Depression Coronary Heart Disease Diabetes Premature Aging Memory Loss Early Vulnerability

4 BC: Unique Population Laboratory: Early Vulnerability  Quality of Labour Supply Kindergarten Population Grade 4 Population Grade 7 Population Grade 12 Population Criminal activity

5 to cut incarceration by a third Reduce Early Vulnerability to 10%...

6 # of children Score on scale of EDI and % achieving university eligible grades LowHigh 29%41.5% University eligible grades Vulnerability IfThen At KAt G.12 The next generation’s Human Capital

7 # of children Score on scale of EDI and % achieving university eligible grades LowHigh 10%55.6% University eligible grades Vulnerability IfThen At KAt G.12 The next generation’s Human Capital

8 What does the early vulnerability debt cost BC?

9 1960 – 2000: Research shows… Countries with 55% of students getting university-eligible grades vs. Countries with 42% of students getting university eligible grades… ENJOYED.63% OF GDP GROWTH MORE PER YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS

10 Decreased Vulnerability = Increased Growth First cohort of 5 year olds benefit from 15 by 15 policy First cohort graduates Status Quo (29% vulnerable) Reduced vulnerability (10%) That’s throwing away $117 billion now + interest over 60 years! We are here Reduced early vulnerability increases GDP by 20% Baseline growth Baseline growth plus 0.63% GDP per year

11 Investment in family policy is the foundation for a robust human capital strategy. Gov’t of Sask Goal: Growth

12 2008 Environmental Debt for Future to Pay Environmental Debt Growing or Shrinking? Tonnes CO2/Capita Change in GHG, % 1990 level 5.013% % 10.60% 8.8-6% % 7.718% % % % 5.71% % % 9.823% % IEAUNFCCC

13 Limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius requires absolute reduction in GHG emissions, while population grows. Option 1: Technological innovation to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. Option 2: Move from a growth to a steady state economy and radically transform the meaning of welfare and the institutions for achieving it.

14 Why 27% vulnerable?

15 EDI data  similar trends across the country BC vulnerability rate: 29%

16 15 by 15

17 A hole in the middle may be good for doughnuts, but not for public policy.

18 Because there is no system of family policy… Canadian Society is FAILING parents in fundamental ways! Time Poverty Service Poverty Income Poverty Reflects appreciation of costs imposed by residential school system; reserves, etc.

19 Smart Family Policy 0 to18 months Time: improve parental leave Services: monthly access to health check-ins and parenting support 0-18 months 18 months to six years Time: re-think ‘full-time’ work Services: early learning and care 18 months to school entry 0 to six years Low-income: make work pay Low-income: increase welfare

20 Parental Leave (year: 2008) Child (from month 3 to 15) Parents both take 6 months to care. Disposable income relative to couple without children Lower Earner (takes all 12 months) CountryYear Can$ (controlling for PPPs) Year Can$ Denmark12,9151,971 Germany1,1661,054 Sweden1,105-2,530 Quebec-2,548 Austria-3, Czech Republic-5, Slovak Republic-6,958-2,251 Finland-8,468-4,694 Netherlands-8,624-9,258 Spain-9,941-5,641 UK-10,036-6,274 Belgium-10,298-6,448 Norway-10,687-7,307 Canada (outside of Quebec)-10, ,779-6,971 New Zealand-12,592-18,999 Italy-15,160-11,653 France-16,085-8,480 Australia-16,343-13,235 Ireland-19,044-10,397 USA-23,119-16,389 Japan-24,019-10,866 Target: $-1,532

21 Leave  $24635 in Parental Time in year 1 $12618 in Parental Time year 2 Supplemented by Healthy Child Check-Ins & Parenting Support

22 0.17% Source: Adapted from Starting Strong ll: Early Childhood Education and Care, September 2006, p.11 Denmark Sweden Norway Finland France Hungary Austria United Kingdom United States Netherlands Germany Italy Australia Canada 0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0% Sask. Canada Canada (outside Quebec) Few spaces Insufficient quality High cost Inadequate Inclusion OECD avg. 0.7% UNICEF & EU benchmark 1.0% 0.25% % of GDP Public expenditure on ECEC services (0-6 years)

23 Province ECEC Expenditure on Children 0-5, including K’garten (% of GDP) Children 0-5 for whom there is a regulated full or part-time centre based CC space (%) Newfoundland & Labrador 18%17.3 Prince Edward Island 24%41.0 Nova Scotia 30%22.1 New Brunswick 34%19.9 Quebec 61%25.0 Ontario 36%19.6 Manitoba 36%20.6 Saskatchewan 18%9.1 Alberta 10%17.4 British Columbia 22%18.3 Northwest Territories 59%23.3 Nunavut 14%20.2 Yukon Territory 69%28.3 Regulated Early Care and Education, by province (2008) Source: Author calculations based on The Big Picture, Early Childhood Education and Care in Canada 2008

24 ECEC  more parents synchronize earning and caring But new Employment Standards reduce yearly hours, but contemplate later retirement 40  35 hours * 2 parents: trade $6k for 500 hours Subsidized by $7-$16k in services One earner couple: 40  35 hours * 1 parent; ECEC  additional employment time for parent 2.

25 Low-Income Policy : Provincial Comparisons

26 Child Poverty Rates by Province 40% poor children live with an adult who works full- time full-year. 2007: 16.7

27 Province Yearly Can$ Lone Mother Yearly Can$ 1-Earner Couple Quebec Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario BC Newfoundland Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba PEI Australia +$10658 Target = $5943, rank 7th In Work Supplement to Earnings* Low Income ($26,620) Families with Toddler (2008) Australia +$7890 Target = $6160, rank 3rd *After child care service and routine health subsidies vs. costs; plus housing subsidies

28 Child Poverty Rates by Province Policy mechanisms (tax expenditures) not reaching some citizens? 45% of Aboriginal children are poor? 2007: 16.7

29 Canadian Currency (controlling for purchasing power parities) (2008)

30 ProvinceYearly Can$ Quebec 10,615 Newfoundland 9,478 PEI 8,686 Saskatchewan 8,438 New Brunswick 7,378 Manitoba 6,617 Nova Scotia 5,342 British Columbia 4,638 Ontario 4,110 Alberta 2,916 Income after Average Prov. Urban Rent and Routine Health: Lone Mother + Child Age 2 on Social Assistance (2008) Target: $12,500 Sweden 5th

31 The price of smart family policy...

32 Funding for Parents = $288 million Funding for Community Services $554 million Time $138 million Income $150 million $842 Million /Year The cost of reducing vulnerability?

33 $842 Million in Saskatchewan?!? Less than half what we spend cumulatively on Old Age Security and RRSPs. Eventual returns outweigh costs by 6/1 About 20% of total fed/prov health care spending.

34 $842 Million Increase in Spending? Provincial Health Care Spending ($ Billions) SK $1 Billion SK: $1.2 Billion

35 Business = Key Beneficiary in Short-Term

36 $842 million minus… Short-term returns to Sask employers from Smart Family Policy Productivity: $68 million Retention: $157 million Private insurance premiums $ 3 million Parental leave top up $ 5 million $233 million Minimum wage…

37 Short-term returns for elected officials

38 $609 million minus… Short-term returns to Government Child welfare: $37 million GPs, Emerg, Hospitalization: $70 million Prescription drugs$ 6 million Workers Comp$28 million Labour supply$49 million $189 million

39 $420 million minus… Paid for half of SFP, and haven’t even counted K-12 efficiencies Health care savings from poverty reduction Haven’t talked about reallocation… Haven’t talked about immediate benefits to families…

40 $420 million minus… Immediate benefits for families with young kids… Earnings$105 million Low-income support $150 million Time to care????

41 Annual crime reduction savings grow to $116 million, Year 4-11 Reduce Early Vulnerability to 10%...

42 Smart Family Policy= Smart Economics A Just Cause But Will We Pursue this Bold Ambition?

43 Not a Research Question It’s a question about being Canadian in Saskatchewan!

44 2008 Family Policy CountryScore/10 Sweden10 Norway8 Finland8 Denmark8 France8 New Zealand6 Netherlands5 UK5 Germany4 Switzerland3 US3 Australia2 Ireland1 Canada Gender Gap Ranking Recommit to Gender Equality to Make Progress on Family Policy/Health Promotion in the early years Sources: World Economic Forum and UNICEF

45 Disease Fetish: Trends in Saskatchewan spending Share of Total Expenditure: Health29.4%38.4% Education18.7%21.3% Social Services9.4%6.5%

46 Life Course Problems Related to Early Life 2 nd Decade 3 rd /4 th Decade 5 th /6 th Decade Old Age School Failure Teen Pregnancy Criminality Obesity Elevated Blood Pressure Depression Coronary Heart Disease Diabetes Premature Aging Memory Loss

47 As Medical Care “crowds out” other spending, we must question: What medical care we owe one another as our capacity to save increases dramatically with costly technology and drugs?

48 Question: And what does it mean for a society when it spends hundreads of thousands, if not millions, of dollars to save a pre-term baby – one life – but is remarkably hesitant to invest in health promotion for the population through programs like early learning and care, housing, food?

49 Beyond Boomercentrism

50 2009 Fiscal Debt for Future to Pay Fiscal Debt Growing since Baby- boomers Country Central Government Debt, % GDP % increase since 1973 Australia8% Switzerland21% Norway26% Ireland27% NZ28% Canada36%133% Finland38% Sweden38% Denmark38% Germany44% Netherlands50% US53% France61% UK75% SourceOECDCANSIM Intergenerational Injustice

51 Fiscal Debt for Future to Pay Fiscal Debt Growing since Baby- boomers Environmental Debt for Future to Pay Environmental Debt Growing or Shrinking? Country Central Government Debt, % GDP % increase since 1973Tonnes CO2/Capita Change in GHG, % 1990 level Sweden38% 5.013% Switzerland21% 5.71% France61% % NZ28% 7.718% Norway26% % UK75% % Denmark38% 8.8-6% Germany44% % Ireland27% 9.823% Finland38% 10.60% Netherlands50% % Canada36%133%16.547% US53% % Australia8% % SourceOECDCANSIMIEAUNFCCC Intergenerational Injustice

52 Fiscal Debt for Future to Pay Fiscal Debt Growing since Baby- boomers Environmental Debt for Future to Pay Environmental Debt Growing or Shrinking? Family Policy for Young Children Country Central Government Debt, % GDP % increase since 1973Tonnes CO2/Capita Change in GHG, % 1990 levelScore/10 Sweden38% 5.013%10 Norway26% %8 Finland38% 10.60%8 Denmark38% 8.8-6%8 France61% %8 NZ28% 7.718%6 Netherlands50% %5 UK75% %5 Germany44% %4 Switzerland21% 5.71%3 US53% %3 Australia8% %2 Ireland27% 9.823%1 Canada36%133%16.547%1 SourceOECDCANSIMIEAUNFCCCUNICEF Intergenerational Injustice

53 Fiscal Debt for Future to Pay Fiscal Debt Growing since Baby- boomers Environmental Debt for Future to Pay Environmental Debt Growing or Shrinking? Family Policy for Young Children Country Central Government Debt, % GDP % increase since 1973Tonnes CO2/Capita Change in GHG, % 1990 levelScore/10 Sweden38% 5.013%10 Norway26% %8 Finland38% 10.60%8 Denmark38% 8.8-6%8 France61% %8 NZ28% 7.718%6 Netherlands50% %5 UK75% %5 Germany44% %4 Switzerland21% 5.71%3 US53% %3 Australia8% %2 Ireland27% 9.823%1 Canada36%133%16.547%1 SourceOECDCANSIMIEAUNFCCCUNICEF Intergenerational Injustice

54 Believe myths, not reality Spring 2010 poll: 82% of British Columbians under-estimated or did not know early vulnerability rate. 86% overestimate how generous Canadian family policy is.

55 Result: many don’t see smart family policy as… Productivity policy Recruitment & Retention policy Crime reduction policy Health policy Gender equality policy Debt elimination policy

56 Result: Many don’t see the cost of maintaining the status quo. Another generation of vulnerable children, and an economy to match.

57 Result: Many don’t see the cost of maintaining the status quo. Another generation of vulnerable children, and an economy to match.

58 Thank you. Paul Kershaw, Ph.D. The University of British Columbia College for Interdisciplinary Studies Human Early Learning Partnership (HELP)

59 School Achievement (1960s) Associates with Economic Growth ( ) Conditional Growth Conditional Test Score % of GDP/year Source: Hanushek and Woessmann (2008): The Relationship between Economic Growth ( ) and Test Scores (1960).

60

61 From the BC Government: 15% vulnerable BC Government Strategic Plan for 2008/ /11, p. 30

62 Beyond Left and Right Critiquing Illness Treatment in Favour of Investing in the Determinants of Health must become NON-PARTISAN This critique is stifled because, culturally speaking, publicly funded medical care is so important to our sense of selves as Canadians, it is a common feature of our social fabric to which we point when distinguishing ourselves from our neighbours to the south.

63 Being ‘Canadian’ May Be Making Us Less Healthy! If we leave unquestioned the place of medical care in our commitments to social policy, we risk our health by failing to invest in its social determinants (Kershaw, 2008).

64 Historical GDP and Revenue ($ millions) SK: Revenue as Share of GDP. Change over Time SK 1994 Revenue: 21.1% of GDP SK 2008 Revenue: 19.1% of GDP ($) Billions SK: 1994 vs 2008 Revenue = $1.29 Billion

65 Child, 0-12 Months IncomeTimeServicesSumSFP Gain With SFP Before SFP Child, Months IncomeTimeServices With SFP Leave: 6 Months. Employ: 2*35 hours*26 weeks. Enabled by parent $2550 parent ECEC payment (less $550 tax relief) Before SFP46686 Paid work 2*40 hours * 52 weeks. Enabled by $5760 in ECEC (less $1400 tax relief) Couple, no child, Average plus ½ Average Income $79890 Gross Income $49704, Disposable income after taxes, housing and routine health

66 Avg + ½ Avg Child, Months IncomeTimeServicesSumSFP Gain With SFP Before SFP46686 Paid work 2*40 hours * 52 weeks. Enabled by $5760 in ECEC (less $1400 tax relief) Avg + FT Caregiver Child, Months IncomeTimeServices With SFP Before SFP Couple, no child, Average plus ½ Average Income $79890 Gross Income $49704, Disposable income after taxes, housing and routine health

67 Child, 0-12 Months IncomeTimeServicesSumSFP Gain With SFP Before SFP Child, Months IncomeTimeServices With SFP Leave: 6 Months. Employ: 2*35 hours*26 weeks. Enabled by parent $2550 parent ECEC payment (less $550 tax relief) Before SFP46686 Paid work 2*40 hours * 52 weeks. Enabled by $5760 in ECEC (less $1400 tax relief) Couple, no child, Average plus ½ Average Income $79890 Gross Income $49704, Disposable income after taxes, housing and routine health

68 Avg + ½ Avg Child, Months IncomeTimeServicesSumSFP Gain With SFP Before SFP46686 Paid work 2*40 hours * 52 weeks. Enabled by $5760 in ECEC (less $1400 tax relief) Avg + FT Caregiver Child, Months IncomeTimeServices With SFP Before SFP Couple, no child, Average plus ½ Average Income $79890 Gross Income $49704, Disposable income after taxes, housing and routine health


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