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Shipperless & Unregistered Workgroup Wednesday 5 th December 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Shipperless & Unregistered Workgroup Wednesday 5 th December 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Shipperless & Unregistered Workgroup Wednesday 5 th December 2012

2 Agenda  Introduction  MPRN Creation Workgroup  Modification update  MPRN Creation Process change ~ Update  MPRN’s set to DEad in error  Previous actions  Statistical Information  Overall industry volumes  ‘Churn’ figures & age profiles  Population cleansing – ‘Strawman’ update  End-User letter update  S&U Population ‘Pot’ Priorities  A.O.B.

3 MPRN creation Workgroup

4  Modification update (C.Warner)  MPRN Creation Process change  Proposal update (D.Mitchell)  Consultation questions  MPRN’s set to DEad in error  A.O.B. Agenda

5  Work to scope/design ongoing since June’12  Consultation document published 28 th November  Via the Energy Networks Association  Also distributed via key industry bodies;  Joint Office  Local Authorities  Your views are essential – Opportunity to comment MPRN Creation proposal

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8  Q1. What kind of impact do you think that this process change will have on speculative connections? (Speculative connections may include phased sites & units where the final usage is not known; in some cases gas supplies are installed but never used)  Q2. What are the anticipated Supplier time scales from first contact with the end user until a supply contract is in place?  Q3. Should ‘Assisted Connections’ be included in this process? Or are they considered out of scope due to the large number of ‘Assisted Connections’ requested by Local Authorities? MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions

9  Q4. How will this revised process affect the customer experience?  Q5. Will this process affect shipper processes and systems? If so what are your expected timescales required to amended your systems?  Q6. Does the amended process have any impact on the systems and Resources of Xoserve? MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions

10  Q7. Does this process cause any potential competition issues for any party effected by this proposal? If so how can they be addressed?  Q8. Does this change target the root cause of the problem or should additional measures (i.e. MAM obligations) be considered to ensure that a supply contract is in place before a meter is installed?  Q9. What implementation timescales do you expect will be required should this change be approved? MPRN Creation proposal: Consultation questions

11  Previously raised due to impacts on Shipper processes  Creation/Confirmation of new MPR  Updating records  Interface with EndUser / MAMs etc.  Xoserve only set to DEad at Shipper request (ISO contact)  Samples provided to DN’s for analysis  Low volumes  Updates to be shared with Workgroup MPRN’s set to DEad in error

12 High level Isolation process Xoserve Receive ISO Query Xoserve Validate ISO Query Xoserve Send for Site Visit and await response. Xoserve receive Site Visit results back from Network. Is there a request to set to DE? Xoserve analyse and interpret data. Xoserve Amend status of MPRN: to LI. Have Network confirmed that the Service is DE? Xoserve update Query Management System and send resolution to Shipper. Xoserve analyse and interpret data. Xoserve update Query Management System and send resolution to Shipper. No Status Amendment Required Xoserve Amend status of MPRN: to DE. Is there a request to set to LI? Yes No No Status Amendment Required Yes Xoserve update Query Management System and send resolution to Shipper.

13 Previous actions

14 Statistical Information

15 Overall Industry volumes

16 Site churn

17 Legitimately Unregistered: Age analysis

18 Orphaned sites: Age analysis

19 SSP: Age analysis

20 PTS: Age analysis

21 Overall Industry volumes: Age analysis OrphanedLegitimate YearVolume% % Pre %1160.3% %310.1% %580.2% %4221.2% 20031,5529.9%1,0933.1% 20041,4189.0%1,2943.6% 20051,0416.6%2,1105.9% 20061,0726.8%4, % 20071, %7, % 20081, %6, % 20091,4769.4%3,4849.8% 20101,5529.8%4, % 20111,4459.2%4, % Total 15,767100%35,524100%

22 AQ values (10years +) OrphanedLegitimate YearSSP (AQ)LSP (AQ)SSP (AQ)LSP (AQ) Pre ,545,0587,342,6901,360,2404,720, ,456,5333,364,449578, ,420,43022,543,3081,149, ,797,60316,825,6087,656,70533,552,728 Total 47,219,62450,076,05510,744,96238,273,151

23 Overall Industry volumes: AQ values SSPLSP ‘Shipper Activity’ 231  60  AQ value 4,680,666  22,101,063  ‘Orphaned’ 12,881  2,887  AQ value 262,750,625  1,414,149,704  ‘No activity’ 1,225  204  AQ value 25,743,814  535,688,577  ‘Legitimate’ 29,529  5,710  AQ value 659,218,071  5,749,576,568  Total AQ952,393,176  7,696,634,306  Key Decrease  No change  Increase 

24 Population cleansing ‘Strawman’ Proposal update

25  Increasing S&U population  Since Sept’11 circa 7k more sites  Options to establish more accurate dataset  Enabling improved focus where required  Clearer data for AUGE  Workgroup agreed for defined methodology  Production of ‘Strawman’ process Background

26 Desktop investigation to determine bulk process

27 MPRNs will be set to DE if No Action Required Further action* will be deemed necessary if MPRNs will be set to EX if Another Live MPRN exists on UK-Link with the same address (Domestic Sites Only) The site has been identified as a CSEP or IGT site Another Live MPRN exists on UK-Link with an equivalent flat address (Flat 1 vs. Flat A) It has been determined that the site has been demolished It has been determined that the service has been removed It has been determined that the service has been replaced It has been determined that the service exists but the meter has been removed or no meter was ever fitted It no conclusion can be drawn from investigations OR The MPRN has a plot address and is <5years old OR If a Nomination or Confirmation is received for the MPRN. * Further action may include End User Letters; MRA Site Visits or Network Site Visits tbc Possible outcomes following investigation

28  Agree on scope of analysis  Targeted the Orphaned population (100 oldest sites)  Agree on methodology  Followed the steps agreed with Industry 19 th Sept  Agree on confidence levels  Shared output with DN’s and await feedback  Findings/updates to be shared via the Workgroup Next steps

29  Detailed system analysis (100 oldest sites >10yrs)  High level ‘themes’;  Flats & possible renovations  Duplicates & Dead/Demolished  Data conflict across systems  Agree if action can be taken without a site visit Findings

30 Data Analysis Results 100 MPRN’s analysed

31  In 71% of cases a site visit is required  Establish: MSN/MPR/Capable of passing gas/Supplier identity  13% Dead (property no longer exists)  14% Extinct (duplicate MPRN)  2% have subsequently been confirmed! Findings

32 Recap…  Trial exercise undertaken in May'12 (100 sites)  20% of sites confirmed or resolved as duplicate MPRN's  Ongoing industry discussion re. benefit of further exercises  Recent dialogue with Ofgem/DN's/Xoserve to target issue End User letters

33 Next steps…  'Strawman' desktop exercise encouraging ongoing option  30% resolved  Suggestion to further pursue desktop approach  Collaborative Xoserve/DN exercise  Utilising central & local systems  Maintain commitment for ongoing focus & priority End User letters

34 S&U Population ‘Pot’ Priorities

35 S&U Pot Priorities  Xoserve has assigned a priority ratings to each of the S&U pots  Two priorities have been assigned  Initial priority; applied to the fresh datasets that are issued on a bi-monthly basis.  Secondary priority; applied on an ongoing basis, for continuous work to reduce the overall population  The ratings were mainly based on the apparent ability to consume gas

36 Pot Descriptions and Trends Unregistered Sites Current Volume 12-month Trend DifferenceDescription Shipper Activity292Down68.54% Reports are issued to the specific shippers containing MPRNs for which an activity has been identified. E.g. Confirmation rejection, Meter asset update to the C&D store, Conquest raised to create the M Number, End User. These reports only include MPRNs > 12 months from creation date. Orphaned With Meter 6,735Up3.13% This report is sent out to the whole industry. Records include MPRNs either following a shipper's response to the shipper activity report, that they have no further interest in the M Number, or where no response is received before the production of the next Bi monthly report. They include sites where a service has been completed and in some instances a meter already installed. This report only includes MPRNs > 12 months from creation date. TOTAL15,767Up5.14% Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS) GSR 975Down27.94% These contain sites which have previously been confirmed with meter removed. Information provided by the Networks suggests either the existing meter still on site or a new meter has been fitted. Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP) 4,781Down2.93% No Activity 1,433Up2.51% These contain meter points created on UK Link where no shipper activity has been recorded and that remain unconfirmed. Legitimately Unregistered 35,524Up9.86% These contain sites which can represent one of the following reasons: Vacant sites; No Gas meter but live service; Service still in planning stage Meter Point created less than 12 months 29,484Up12.37% These figures provide details of meter points that have not reached the first anniversary of their creation date and remain unconfirmed. TOTAL 88,256Up8.64% Not included in Total Figures

37 Initial Pot Priorities Unregistered SitesInitial PriorityJustification Shipper Activity1 Records within this pot have been associated with a particular shipper. It is important that the shippers thoroughly investigate records issued to them as soon as possible while the inforamtion is "fresh" to ensure that they do not fall into the Orphaned Pot unnecessarily. Orphaned With Meter3 This section of the S&U population should be treated with priority as intelligence suggests that the site is capable of using gas, and a meter has been reported to be in situ. TOTAL5 The remainder of the Orphaned Pot should be addressed as a second priority. However, it is recommended that this pot should be broken down further to form sub-pots defined by the record's original pot. Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS) GSR 2 Records within this pot remain on the specific shippers' reports until they have confirmed the MPRN. They should be investigated as a high priority as the networks have identified that the site is capable of consuming gas, and that the meter on site is the one that the previous shipper has purported to have removed. Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP) 4 Records within this pot should be investigated as a high priority as the networks have identified that the site is capable of consuming gas. No Activity 6 MPRNs in this pot have had no activity since their creation. Therfore it is not certain that gas is being consumed on these sites. Legitimately Unregistered 8 Recent analysis of the Legitimately Unregistered Population increased confidence that the MPRNs in this pot were correctly categorised. Meter Point created less than 12 months 7 Previous analysis has shown that <80% of MPRNs are confirmed within 12 months of creation through normal means.

38 Secondary Pot Priorities Unregistered Sites Overall Priority Justification Shipper ActivityN/A Records within this pot are automatically included in the Orphaned pot in the next reporting run if they are not confirmed or set to EX or DE. Orphaned With Meteri This section of the S&U population should be treated with the highest priority as intelligence suggests that the site is capable of using gas, and a meter has been reported to be in situ. TOTALii The remainder of the Orphaned Pot should be addressed as a second priority. However, it is recommended that this pot should be broken down further to form sub-pots defined by the record's original pot. Shipperless Sites - Shipper (PTS) GSR iiiRecords within this pot remain on the specific shippers' reports until they have confirmed the MPRN. Shipperless Sites - Industry (SSP) ivRecords within this pot remain on the reports until they have been confirmed. No Activity N/A Records within this pot are automatically included in the Orphaned pot in the next reporting run if they are not confirmed or set to EX or DE. Legitimately Unregistered v Recent analysis of the Legitimately Unregistered Population increased confidence that the MPRNs in this pot were correctly categorised. Meter Point created less than 12 months vi Previous analysis has shown that <80% of MPRNs are confirmed within 12 months of creation through normal means.

39 Customer service functions Industry Engagement Solution Delivery Operations Respected expertise, visibly engaged Creative solutions, delivered responsibly Critical services, expertly delivered

40 AOB  Any other business?  Thanks for your attendance…  … your contribution & support  Have a safe journey home!


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