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Climate change in the UK UKCIP : 4 scenarios based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions Baseline 1961-1990 looking to 2020s, 2050s, & 2080s.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate change in the UK UKCIP : 4 scenarios based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions Baseline 1961-1990 looking to 2020s, 2050s, & 2080s."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate change in the UK UKCIP : 4 scenarios based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions Baseline looking to 2020s, 2050s, & 2080s Consensus that –Temperatures will increase, by 2050 at least 1.5’C; by 2080 perhaps as much as 4.5’C –More very hot days, fewer cold days –Summers will be drier, decrease in soil moisture –Winters will be wetter by up to 30%; rain will fall on fewer days –More dramatic weather events such as floods and storms –Sea levels will rise, storm surges become more important –Risk of flooding will double by 2080s

2 Stern Review The economics of climate change Costs of stabilising the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly. Need annual emissions brought down by 80% from current levels. Investing 1% GDP now could prevent losing at least 5% and possibly up to 20% global GDP each year every year. Stern identified £30bn opportunity for businesses that respond to the challenge. Mitigation readily translates into resource efficiency and directly to bottom line – easy to sell. Adaptation more associated with planning to avoid climate-related risk – harder for businesses to grasp. Recommended future international frameworks to include: –Emissions trading –Technology cooperation –Action to reduce deforestation –Adaptation

3 Climate Change White Paper Statutory Carbon targets built into legislation Carbon budgets including forward look Carbon Trading mechanisms Climate Change Panel to advise HMG on how to meet targets Following consultation proposed change to clause 50 to give power for Secretary of State to require local authorities to –Assess current and predicted impact of climate change in relation to local authorities’ functions –Prepare proposals and policies for adapting to climate change in exercise of functions –Co-operate with other authorities for that purpose

4 New Performance Framework Comprehensive Area Assessments –Area risk assessment identifying risks to outcomes and the effectiveness of their management –A scored use of resources judgement for public bodies in the area –A scored direction of travel judgement for each local authority in the area –Publication of performance data for each area against the set of (198) national indicators Local Area Agreements –Agreement between central and local government –35 (+16 statutory education) priority targets –Duty to co-operate applies to named public sector bodies –Duty to have regard to targets in operations

5 Local Area Agreements 3 specific climate change indicators –NI 185 mitigation (LA operations as % CO 2 reduction) –NI 186 mitigation (by area as CO 2 /per capita) –NI 188 adaptation Others directly related to mitigation: fuel poverty (NI187); traffic congestion (NI167); modal shift (NI 175, NI 177, NI198); waste management (NI 191, NI192 & NI193) Others related to adaptation flood and coastal erosion (NI189); biodiversity (NI197); Others related to green spaces Overall satisfaction with area (NI 5 and NI 138); adult participation in sport (NI 8); perceptions of anti-social behaviour (NI 17); Obesity (NI 55, NI 56); Young people’s participation in positive activities (NI 110); Mortality rates (NI 120 – NI 121); improved street and environmental cleanliness (NI 195 and NI 196)

6 Local Area Agreements Mitigation indicators 185 or 186 being proposed for all LAAs Adaptation indicator (NI 188) being adopted by majority of LAAs. All LAAs benefitting from share of £50K for Local Climate Impact Profiles (LCLIP) at LAA area level. Past look at weather events which have lessons and indicate risks for future. –Remember what has happened –System to log what does happen –Plan for what will happen

7 Climate Change Regional Programme of Action Led by Assembly/GOEM/emda/environment agency, consultation proposal, county meetings Emerging Priorities 1.Enabling a low carbon future, resilient to the impacts of climate change through planning, design and sustainable construction 2.Improving business performance through resource efficiency, new market opportunities and management of climate risks 3.Targeting investment to ensure a resilient and well-functioning environmental and green infrastructure 4.Engaging and building capacity among all regional stakeholders to adapt to climate impacts and promote behavioural change

8 Protect and enhance environmental capacity 3 Targeting investment to ensure a resilient and well-functioning environmental and green infrastructure –Supporting biodiversity –Minimising loss and damage of habitat –Working with natural tidal processes to conserve coastal assets –Avoiding inappropriate development in areas at risk of flooding –Better management of region’s soil and water assets –Greater adoption of precision agriculture techniques


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