Presentation on theme: "East Midlands Growth Prospectus Workshop: An economic perspective Will Rossiter Economic Strategy Research Bureau Nottingham, December 2012."— Presentation transcript:
East Midlands Growth Prospectus Workshop: An economic perspective Will Rossiter Economic Strategy Research Bureau Nottingham, December 2012
Overview Economic context – recession, depression or zig zag recovery? The productivity puzzle Regional ‘fundamentals’ and long term competitiveness What have we got that ‘ticks Government boxes’?
Quarterly Economic Growth in the UK since 1955 2008Q2 - 09Q2 5 quarters; 6.28% contraction 1990Q3 - 91Q3 5 quarters; 2.93% contraction 1980Q1 - 81Q1 5 quarters; 4.63% contraction 1975Q2 - 75Q3 2 quarters; 1.76% contraction Source: Based on data from Quarterly National Accounts, Table A2, (National Statistics) 2011Q4 - 12Q2 3 quarters; 1.03% contraction 1973Q3 - 74Q1 3 quarters; 3.25% contraction 1956Q1 - 56Q2 2 quarters; 0.31% contraction Average quarterly growth = 0.63% Equivalent to annual growth of 2.54%
Unemployment ILO unemployment rate seasonally adjusted August-October 2012 ONS 12 th December 2012
Labour productivity ONS Labour Productivity Release, September 2012 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/productivity/labour-productivity/q2-2012/stb- lprod-q212.html
What can we do about it? Concentrate on regional ‘fundamentals’ “..there is international evidence that regions can find a second or third ‘wind’ by understanding their inherent advantages, by examining their historic legacy, by judicious public spending, and in particular by an appreciation of the roles that an educated labour force, high quality infrastructure and in an entrepreneurial/innovative business culture play in influencing regional prosperity.” Ron Martin 2005 “the case for increased public investment in productive infrastructure is overwhelming today, particularly given low interest rates.” Martin Wolf, FT 20/09/12, commenting on the productivity puzzle
The East Midlands “The East Midlands is a region of opportunity. Confidence in its future is founded on its generally diversified economic activity… its past and present level of employment, and the relative absence of the disadvantages associated with massive and congested conurbations.” East Midlands Economic Planning Council 1969 Economic development is path dependent Historic strengths/sources of competitive advantage matter The challenge is to find new and emerging opportunities to which these historic endowments can be applied… 7
Rebalancing? Public Sector Employment Less affected (as a region as a whole), due to other regions having major public sector concentrations (e.g. Sheffield) Public Sector Employment (PSE) fell from 20.1% to 19.2% of total employment in the East Midlands between Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – loss of 15,000 jobs over the period Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2012. Public Sector Employment, Quarter 4 2011. TSO: London. accessed/published 14 th March, 2012.
Further information Will Rossiter firstname.lastname@example.org 0115 8482875 Economic Strategy Research Bureau http://www.ntu.ac.uk/nbs/business/specialist_centres/esrb.html Includes links to recent reports on D2N2 and Nottingham City emda archive http://www.tinyurl.com/emdakb