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Woodford Meeting June 14, 2012 www.seveds.com. SeVEDS History and Makeup Started over four years ago as a small group of people from across the region.

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Presentation on theme: "Woodford Meeting June 14, 2012 www.seveds.com. SeVEDS History and Makeup Started over four years ago as a small group of people from across the region."— Presentation transcript:

1 Woodford Meeting June 14, 2012 www.seveds.com

2 SeVEDS History and Makeup Started over four years ago as a small group of people from across the region looking to improve broadband and cell service After many meetings it became painfully clear that the region’s problem wasn’t lack of broadband, it was lack of economic development Understanding we couldn’t go it alone, professional assistance was sought from Fairpoint Communication and their contractor Vital Economies Over the past 1 ½ years the SeVEDS organization has solidified. With a Board of Directors, an Executive Committee Chaired by Bob Stevens. The Board is comprised of individuals from the private and public sector

3 Theory and Practice Economic Development Theory and Practice has changed from a focus on company recruitment to a focus on asset-based community driven process In practice this means a change from relying on professional practitioners (marketing and sales people) to building community based interest The effect is that effort goes into educating people about facts and developing strategies compatible with community values

4 Practical Effects Strengths: Economic activity consistent with local values Companies that share local scale and goals Growth that builds on existing strengths of workforce and infrastructure Vulnerabilities Takes time to grow commitment and knowledge Building companies is slower than importing them Training and attracting workforce is slower than drawing it in

5 How long does it take? Windham started this process about five years ago Small group reacting to two bad snow winters and to lack of broadband Chamber director Town manager Regional planning director Town planning director Interested citizen Regional development corporation director

6 What are the steps? Confusion and uncertainty We tried to define our ‘sense of urgency’ based on our feelings and the data we could identify Frustratingly unsuccessful. We could not find the words or facts to tell the story we knew was there Luck brought Vital Economy to our doorstep, but we were ready

7 Necessary conditions A group committed to achieve the goals of change and growth Willingness to admit we don’t know how to do what has to be done Leaders: people willing to take the risk to say to their peers, constituents, and the public that something has to be done

8 Sufficient Conditions Leaders secure in their positions and willing to take some risks A source of example, research, data and some money An open field or opportunity to act

9 SeVEDS Mission and Vision Mission: SeVEDS exists to reverse the economic decline of our region. Vision: Southeastern Vermont will have an economy that generates long-term growth and prosperity and that improves our quality of life and sustains our quality of place.

10 Asset Based Economic Development A key asset is the group that builds the core team, and then the core team itself SeVEDS Board is Majority private sector Mostly under 50 Women strongly present Energetic Core team built around the key assets—quality of place and life, key businesses and employers, long term players

11 Not for Amateurs Economic Development is hard work built on continually refreshed data Core team has to rely on others to do the data and execute programs to achieve goals Requires a mature understanding of economic activity The economy is not a matter of opinion Favorite industries are not solutions Risk is endemic to the undertaking

12 Where are we now SeVEDS has some budget resources and a dedicated staff person SeVEDS has strategies and working task forces SeVEDS is seeking additional resources to drive forward on strategies SeVEDS has credibility Governor proposing college campuses State proposing significant investment in the area to mitigate the potential closing of Vermont Yankee

13 Where do we go next We have to do the things we have pointed at We have to continue to expand the social capital we have built in the Core Team We have to broaden the relationships we have with key businesses and institutions, like the state colleges We have to resolve the relationship with our existing RDC, Brattleboro Development Credit Corporation

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15 Is it really bad? Is the region really in a decline? What is the data?

16 WindhamVTMENHMAUS Average wage $ 38,820 $ 40,940 $ 38,550 $ 43,720 $ 52,710 $ 43,460 2009 AVERAGE WAGE We are just ahead of Maine in many measures

17 Notice how high this is

18 AgePopulationForecastProjected Change Brackets19902000201020151990-2015 0-19 11,620 11,522 9,220 8,213-29.3%-3,407 -8,322 20-44 16,848 14,479 12,398 11,933-29.2%-4,915 45-64 7,726 12,042 14,349 13,48374.5%5,757 8,538 65 + 5,394 6,173 6,889 8,17551.6%2,781 Total 41,588 44,216 42,856 41,804 Average Age34.64044.746.5 Implications: (1)By 2015, there could be a workforce shortage of roughly 8,000 +/-. (2)Increased demand for elders service. (3)Commuters will fill the gap or work will disappear. (4)Climate of innovation will be more difficult to build and maintain. (5)Vicious cycle of declining younger population is difficult to reverse. (6)This trend can accelerate if not addressed. Population Forecast Source: US Census Bureau / Decision Data Resources

19 Source: BEA Implication Analysis of Population & Economic Change Year 2000 was a watershed More small businesses, less income

20 Percent Contribution to Total Personal Compensation Windham 1990 US 1990 VT 1990 Windham 2000 VT 2000 US 2000 Windham 2009 VT 2009 US 2009 Increasing reliance on Transfer Payments as a percentage of Total Personal Compensation implies that fewer people are directly engaged and reliant upon the regional economy for their livelihood. Source: BEA We are earning less of our living

21 VT 2000 US 2000 Windham 2000 US 2009 VT 2009 Windham 2009 Percent Contribution to Total Personal Compensation Digging into the mix of sources of Total Personal Compensation we further find that the percentage of compensation that comes from the Private Sector compared to the Public Sector continues to decline in Windham County. This is moving in the opposite direction from the US and State metric. This implies that there is a lack of economic risk taking behavior necessary to drive a vibrant innovative regional Economy. Source: BEA Note the sizeable proportion of public sector jobs

22 We are highly educated We lag behind in Technical Skills Training Source: US Census Bureau 2009 Educational Attainment of Region

23 Source: US Census Bureau 2009 Median Earnings by Educational Attainment Median Earnings by Educational Attainment shows the dramatic impact of job loss on wages in SeVEDS. College grads earn 18% more in Cheshire County, NH and 23% more in Hampshire County, MA.

24 Source: BEA Vermont GDP Growth Continues to Lag National Growth Rate GDP Under-performance is impacted by five key factors: 1.Demographics 2.Declining Jobs 3.Lack of Immigration 4.Educational Attainment 5.Middle-Skill Workforce Declining prime worker cohort in the 25-44 age group is directly related to declining jobs. This is further exacerbated by lack of immigration. Educational Attainment and Workforce disconnects reduced the ability of the ability of the region to supply high-GDP growth, high demand middle-skill jobs.

25 Source: US EDA SeVEDS Innovation Climate Windham County Vermont New Hampshire US = 100 Innovation Index components: 1.Human Dynamics 30% 2.Economic Dynamics 30% 3.Productivity & Employment 30% 4.Economic Well-Being 10% Innovation Index demonstrate the need for SeVEDS to develop an effective innovation environment and strategy. This requires that SeVEDS capitalize on its indigenous assets, reverse demographic trends, develop the proper mix of workforce skills, and invest in an innovation ecosystem.

26 Source: BEA Sources of Income and A Vibrant Innovation Economy Regions with a rich entrepreneurial business environments achieve long-term growth and regional economic prosperity. We evaluate three different measures as each provides a different insight in the regional economy: 1.High Average Non-Farm Proprietor Income is an indicator of the depth of Entrepreneurship 2.The ratio of Net Earned Income to Total Personal Income is a measure of propensity for risk as it demonstrates the relative reliance on earned income as compared to transfer payments in the region. 3.The ratio of Private Sector Employment to Public Sector employment is another measure of propensity for entrepreneurial activity in a region The SeVEDS region scores lower in #1 and #2 but has a better ratio of private to public employment than average. The data confirms an anecdotal expectation of the higher score in #3 since the concentration of State Government employment in SE Vermont is low. 2009 DataWindham, VTHampshire, MANew EnglandUS Average Non-Farm Proprietor Income $ 14,732 $ 19,550 $ 30,682 $ 27,898 Net Earned income to Total Income0.5660.6540.6590.645 Private Employment to Total Employment0.8870.7750.8760.843

27 Regional employment by sector and growth We want regional industry sectors in this quadrant – growing nationally and with a higher concentration of regional jobs For example: Information sector is growing nationally but we have a lower then average % concentration of regional jobs in this sector.

28 Source: Growing Vermont’s Next Generation Workforce, (April 2007), Next Generation Consulting Quality of Life – Perceptions versus Reality The Growing Vermont’s Next Generation Workforce report clearly demonstrates that there is a disconnect between the perception of Vermont Quality of Place values and peoples actions SeVEDS should develop Quality of Life goals based on NGC “Values vs. Perception” indicators. This dissonance is significant

29 Low wages, a rising cost of living and limited job opportunities create a disconnect between the skills needed by employers and the skills held by the workforce. This leads to a widely shared sense of economic insecurity resulting in many Vermonters looking for economic opportunity elsewhere, and few choosing Vermont as a place to live and conduct business. This data results in a Shared Sense of Urgency

30 Now what? Identify 5 year goals Develop initial objectives and strategies Regional review and input – in process Start working on implementation and funding plans – in process

31 Goals and Metrics Goals: End Population Decline 2009 = 42,605 est. 669 new jobs @$ 43,833 and 446 new jobs @$39,848 (NNE Average Wage) Improvement of 4,464 jobs by $5,000/yr. $69M new wages $141M in new GDP Reach Regional GDP of $2.8B Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some College from $26,855 to $32,000 Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelor’s Degree from $32,518 to $39,000 Improve the Ratio of Net Earned Income to Total Income from.566 to.65

32 Create Operational and Fiscal Sustainability Plan for SeVEDS by December 2011 Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce (1- 8)

33 Objective 1. Create Operational and Fiscal Sustainability Plan for SeVEDS by December 2011 Create Legal SeVEDS Entity Create Board of Directors Incorporate SeVEDS as a Non-Profit Affiliation Agreement with BDCC Outline multiyear budget and fundraising needs Hire SeVEDS staff person to provide organizational and funder planning support. Prepare 3-year budget Develop and implement private fundraising campaign Develop and implement public fundraising campaign Develop Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy for submission to EDA Complete EDA Technical Assistance Grant Create Action teams to identify and support implementation of priorities and projects including VY closure, work force, redevelopment, and flood Create CEDS plan

34 Objective 2: Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce (1-8) Develop a Workforce Center of Excellence Collaborative between providers and users of workforce development services that identifies and connects existing workforce development assets, defines future workforce requirements and gaps by September 2012 Key Metric: Recommend Preferred Workforce Development Collaborative Plan by December 2012 Map workforce development assets and define gaps to be filled Build strategic relationships between assets Define 3 to 5 Career Pathways that will meet the needs of the priority industries Identify workforce development Best Practices appropriate to the region Recommend Preferred Workforce Development Collaborative Plan by December 2012

35 Objective 2: Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce (1-8) continued Increase 20-44 age group employment by 20% in five years Key Metric: By January 2012 Define Top 3 – 5 Industry Clusters with the potential for increasing high-value jobs within the next five years By January 2012 Define Top 3 – 5 Industry Clusters with the potential for increasing high-value jobs within the next five years Create Action Teams in Q1-2012 around Clusters to identify Strengths (Assets), Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats and value chain gaps Prioritize at least 2 Clusters for Opportunity Analysis Research that will Action 3.2.D – define at least 2 Niche Markets per Cluster for implementation by October 2012 Develop Immigration Attraction Strategy by April 2012 focused on doubling the percentage of foreign born population in the region from 3.5% to 7% by 2016 Develop a Highly Skilled Professionals recruitment and retention strategy

36 Objective 2: Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce (1-8) continued Increase Associate Degrees/Some College and Technical Certificates Key Metric: 18-24 year old age bracket from 38% (1495 persons) to 47% (1884 persons) for net increase of 389 persons by 2016 18-24 year old age bracket from 38% (1495 persons) to 47% (1884 persons) for net increase of 389 persons by 2016 Identify Industry Sectors with critical skill needs Work with Secondary, Post-Secondary and Vermont State College System and the broader region to develop education programs to meet industry needs Partner with UMass Identify public and private resources to support a sustainable implementation of workforce development plan

37 Objective 3: Increase population proportion of 24-44 year-olds from 23% to 28% of total population by 2017 (1) KBE Strategy connecting the SeVEDS region to the NE Next Generation Knowledge Corridor Develop a Livable Communities Strategy by 2014 Leverage Tourism and Second Homeowner Assets to attract 1,000 young families Develop a coordinated regional marketing plan to promote SE Vermont as the best place to live, place, and work. Action Plans for Objective 4 Strategies will be developed during Phase II

38 Objective 4: Create an Entrepreneurial Environment (1-8) Define and implement an Innovation Ecosystem within 3 years In 2012, assess regional innovation and entrepreneurial climate based upon best practice criteria (Innovation Index): facilities, governance, business services, access to capital, business networks, culture, R&D capacities, etc. Convene an Action Team to use the Innovation Index for SeVEDS developed in 12.a to address complex regulatory and other concerns with State and Local jurisdictions. Assess business needs and set a goal to assist xx existing businesses and XX new or potential businesses each year. Create a Young Professionals Group (YPG) to support and attract 20-44 year old professionals and workers By Q4-2011 identify and evaluate strengths and weaknesses of existing young professional networks and social organizations Engage a representative group of existing younger individuals (especially 18-35 yrs. old) in the community to assess interests and the role of young professions in the region’s economic future As a result of Action 13b recommend a set of activities and actions to be adopted supporting both the YPG and entrepreneurial climate of the regions, such as: business seminars, speakers, business plan competitions, investment forums, social events, etc.

39 Objective 4: Create an Entrepreneurial Environment (1-8) Create a sustainable start – up funding program by March 2013 Define and implement a plan to benchmark and track new businesses looking for funding by December 2012 Define and implement a plan to benchmark and track new jobs created by December 2012 Create a mentor/investor network plan utilizing especially the services and assets of 44-75 year olds by December 2012 Take advantage of opportunities under the federal crowdfunding bill (if passed) Create marketing plan including social media to package and publicize local funding sources, mentor networks, incubator spaces, etc. Reach out to UMass/Amherst area via recruitment events, advertising, etc. Identify Incubator Space

40 Objective 4: Create an Entrepreneurial Environment (1-8) continued Recognize and blend Quality of Place characteristics and concepts into the SEVEDS strategies Establish a group of relevant regional stakeholders to review Quality of Place concepts and index methodologies to craft a set of appropriate regional metrics Develop and conduct several community presentations describing the role and critical components of Quality of Place within the SeVEDS strategy Develop internal (within Windham Region) and external (out of Windham Region) marketing plan Facilitate bringing challenged properties in the Windham Region back into purposeful use Aggregate relevant environmental, financial and land record information for qualified interest groups. Aiding qualified individuals and/or groups in purchase and rehab planning consistent with regional, economic, environmental and town planning. Create a mechanism to facilitate intermediary ownership if there are no other alternatives Identify and work with redevelopment efforts underway

41 Objective 4: Create an Entrepreneurial Environment (1-8) continued Expand Percentage of the Regional Economy coming from the Global Economy by leveraging businesses w/global connections seeking higher skilled workers in high wage jobs. Create a database of businesses with international relationships Map international, linguistic, cultural, and technical knowledge assets Create a Global Marketing plan that links with International trade marketing tools and programs to expand markets and attract new business to leverage regional assets Define three (3) Global Niche Markets having value chain gaps that can be filled by regional assets Identify workforce skill gaps that might be filled by international workers coming to the region and create an worker recruitment plan Identify potential needs of international workers and develop a plan to meet those needs

42 Objective 5: Plan for a Post VY Economy (1-5) Establish a sustained effort to cope with and recover from the closure of Vermont Yankee Build a broad based steering committee to guide planning and action on economic and social impacts. Conduct Substantial study of other nuclear plant closings and other plan shutdowns and find major learning’s - WRPC Establish Site decommissioning, deconstruction, clean up, restoration and reuse planning group: Identify potential impacts from VY closure – completed November 2011. Major categories include Jobs, GDP declines, Real Estate prices decline, Human Capital, Taxes Identify possible mitigation, barriers and means of overcoming barriers – in process

43 Objective 6: Plan, Track and Participate (1-8) Maintain list of issues and sectors for development of additional objectives and strategies Energy Prices, Broadband and Cell expansion, Disaster preparedness, Transportation Infrastructure, Railroads, Regional Plan


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