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MAKING SENSE OF THE CENSUS American Community Survey and Decennial Census Using FactFinder Significant Demographic Signals Barry Bennett Population Programs.

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Presentation on theme: "MAKING SENSE OF THE CENSUS American Community Survey and Decennial Census Using FactFinder Significant Demographic Signals Barry Bennett Population Programs."— Presentation transcript:

1 MAKING SENSE OF THE CENSUS American Community Survey and Decennial Census Using FactFinder Significant Demographic Signals Barry Bennett Population Programs Coordinator Ohio Development Services Agency

2 U.S. Constitution Article 1, Section 2: "The actual enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct." American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Reapportionment/ Redistricting Program-related data

3 American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Replaces old long form Collects programmatic socio-economic data Continuous sampling; published every year One-year samples (Sept. -geographies of 65,000+ pop.) Three-year samples (Oct. -geographies 20,000 – 65,000 pop.) Five-year samples (Dec. - all geographies) Lower-precision data for small areas and small groups

4 American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Problematic Example: Latino population Geography 2010 Census Count 2010ACS Estimate Abs. Diff. %Diff. Ohio 354, ,019 24, Franklin Co. 55,718 49,675 6, Lorain Co., CT 231 2,029 2, Lorain Co., CT 231, BG Lesson: For base population & household counts, use 2010 Census; for intercensal years, use Population Estimates.

5 American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Use of ACS statistics requires some judgment Jury still out on utilization Small-area programs adjusting guidelines

6 American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Estimates and reliability of socio-economic characteristics: How important is a spot-on estimate? Can estimates at next-highest geography do? Can we use a trend? (forthcoming option) Divide margin of error/estimate – If ratio is <.30, use with no reservation If ratio is , use with caution If ratio is >=.5, answer these three questions: Call your friendly State Data Center for assistance

7 Note: Estimates are not statistically independent, nor significantly different

8 Go To American FactFinder American FactFinder Tons of data, lots of flexibility - both solution and problem Will cover three approaches: Quick Start (search term phrasing important!) “Data Compiler” mode Bookmarking/save query

9 Asians now lead Latinos in annual immigration By Michael Matza Philadelphia Inquirer Staff Writer Census Bureau Report Shows Shared Households Increased 11.4 Percent from 2007 to million Ohioans see income drop, report says Report sees dip in 2010; more lack safety net to cover emergencies. “… older Americans are losing their homes because of pension cuts, rising medical costs, shrinking stock portfolios and falling property values” Oct 29, “According to the government, 780,000 Ohioans are underemployed or unemployed…A growing number of people are taking part-time jobs that pay less than their experience or education level,…” [Cincinnati.com ]

10 Prominent Demographic Trends Baby Boom Effects More elderly, fewer births, less mobile Changing household composition Household Income Decline Systemic (?) work – income structure change House-sharing More young urban renters Cultural Nuancing Urban centers with larger, more diverse Asian, Latino, African populations

11 Baby Boom Effects

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14 Counties with More Deaths than Births - Measured

15 Counties with More Deaths than Births - Extrapolated

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17 Counties with More Deaths than Births – Extrapolated

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19 HOUSEHOLD INCOME

20 Average annual expenditures, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Item vs Number of consumer units (in thousands)118,843120,770122,287 Income before taxes 1/$60,533$63,563$63,685higher Income after taxes 1/$58,101$61,774$61,673lower Average annual expenditures$48,398$50,486$49,705lower Food$6,111$6,443$6,458even Housing$16,366$17,109$16,803lower Rented dwellings$2,590$2,724$3,029higher Other lodging$567$698$648 Utilities, fuels, and public services$3,397$3,649$3,727higher Water and other public services$397$446$501higher Household operations$948$998$1,122higher Apparel and services$1,874$1,801$1,740lower Transportation$8,508$8,604$8,293lower Vehicle purchases (net outlay)$3,421$2,755$2,669even Gasoline and motor oil$2,227$2,715$2,655lower Health care$2,766$2,976$3,313higher Health insurance$1,465$1,653$1,922higher Entertainment$2,376$2,835$2,572lower Personal insurance and pensions$5,270$5,605$5,424lower Assets and Liabilities Money income before taxes 1/$60,533$63,563$63,685higher Wages and salaries$48,119$51,007$49,805lower Self-employment income$3,607$3,219$3,269even Social Security, private and government retirement$6,139$6,577$7,648higher Interest, dividends, rental income, other property income$1,486$1,509$1,281lower Unemployment and workers' compensation, veterans' benefits$207$225$579higher Public assistance, supplemental security income, food stamps$340$371$520higher Federal income taxes$1,711$1,817$1,370lower State and local income taxes$519$542$505lower Net change in total assets (year-over-year)$11,120$7,349$6,836lower Net change in total liabilities (year-over-year)$18,173$11,421$8,662lower Estimated market value of owned home$183,212$169,794$151,165lower

21 CULTURAL NUANCING

22 Racial/Ethnic Group Growth Rates Since 1990 In Ohio’s Three Largest Counties FranklinCuyahogaHamilton American/African Black 61.8% 8.6% 13.7% Asian 131.5% 81.8% 75.9% Latino 503.3% 94.8% 296.4% All Other 4.6% -20.4% -16.6%

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24 Average annual expenditures and characteristics of all consumer units, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Item Number of consumer units (in thousands)118,843121,107 Income before taxes 1/$60,533$62,481 Income after taxes 1/$58,101$60,712 Average annual expenditures$48,398$48,109 Food$6,111$6,129 Food at home$3,417$3,624 Food away from home$2,694$2,505 Housing$16,366$16,557 Owned dwellings$6,516$6,277 Rented dwellings$2,590$2,900 Apparel and services$1,874$1,700 Transportation$8,508$7,677 Vehicle purchases (net outlay)$3,421$2,588 Maintenance and repairs$688$787 Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, and other charges$482$423 Public transportation$505$493 Healthcare$2,766$3,157 Health insurance$1,465$1,831 Medical services$670$722 Drugs$514$485 Medical supplies$117$119 Entertainment$2,376$2,504 Personal care products and services$585$582 Personal insurance and pensions$5,270$5,373 Life and other personal insurance$322$318 Pensions and Social Security$4,948$5,054 Money income before taxes 1/$60,533$62,481 Wages and salaries$48,119$49,568 Interest, dividends, rental income, other property income$1,486$1,182 Unemployment and workers' compensation, veterans' benefits$207$634 Public assistance, supplemental security income, food stamps$340$505 Personal taxes 1/$2,432$1,769 Net change in total assets$11,120$5,503 Estimated market value of owned home$183,212$155,083 Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September, 2011

25 THANK YOU! Questions? Office of Research


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