Presentation on theme: "AP Macroeconomics Review Session One Key Vocabulary Terms and Key Graphs. This is a fairly comprehensive review largely based on the 2000 and 2005 released."— Presentation transcript:
AP Macroeconomics Review Session One Key Vocabulary Terms and Key Graphs. This is a fairly comprehensive review largely based on the 2000 and 2005 released Multiple Choice Exams and the recent Free Response Questions.
Production Possibilities Assumptions: –Full Employment –Fixed Resources and Technology Movements –Along curve shows opportunity cost –Outward shift illustrates economic growth –Inward shift indicates destruction of resources Producing Capital Goods will lead to greater economic growth than producing consumer goods. (Butter will lead to more growth than guns)
Production Possibilities Graph Capital Goods Consumer Goods A B C D E Points A,B,C, are efficient pts. Point D is underutilization Point E is economic growth May Lead to most Future growth May Lead to most Future economic growth
Economic Systems Capitalism=Free Market –Most decisions made by Private businesses Communism=Command Economy –Most decisions made by the government Mixed Economy=Features of both Capitalism and Communism –Decisions made by both the market and governments
Supply and Demand Factors Demand Changes when: –Income changes –Related Products, complements and substitutes, (price or quality change) –Expectations (future price change) –Consumers (more or less added) –Tastes, Fads, Preferences change
Demand Increase: As Demand Increases, Price and Quantity Increase as well. P1 P2 Q1Q2 S1 D1 D2 Price Quantity
Demand Decrease: As Demand Decreaes, Price and Quantity decrease as well D1 D2 S1 P1 P2 Q1Q2 Price Quantity
Supply Factors Supply Changes When: –Input prices change (resources and wages) –Government (tariffs, quotas, and subsidies) –Number of sellers change –Expectations (about price and product profitability change) –Disasters (weather, strikes, etc..)
Supply Increase: As Supply Increases, Quantity Increases, but Price Falls. Price Quantity Q1 Q2 P1 P2 S1 S2 D1
Supply Decrease: As Supply Decreases, Quantity Decreases, but Price Increases. Price Quantity S1 S2 D1 P1 P2 Q1Q2
Comparative Advantage A nation should specialize in producing goods in which it has a comparative advantage: ability to produce the good at a lower opportunity cost. Example: CheeseWine Spain:2 pounds2 Cases France2 pounds6 Cases Spain should produce cheese (1C = 1W) France should produce wine (1W = 1/3C) :
Currency Terms Appreciation: Currency is increasing in demand (stronger dollar) –U.S. Currency will appreciate when more foreigners: travel to the U.S., buy more U.S. goods or services, or buy the U.S. dollar to invest in bonds
Currency Terms Depreciation: Currency is decreasing in demand (weaker dollar) Being SUPPLIED in exchange for other currency. –U.S. Currency will depreciate when fewer foreigners: travel to the U.S., buy fewer U.S. goods or services, or sell the U.S. dollar to invest in their own bonds
Circular Flow of Economic Activity Households supply resources (land, labor, capital, entrepreneurial ability) to the resource market. Households demand goods and services from businesses. Businesses demand household resources and supply goods and services to the product (factor) market.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): The total dollar (market) value of all final goods and services produced in a given year. Expenditure Formula: Consumption (C) + Business Investment (I) + Government Spending (G) + Net Exports (x)
GDP: What Counts: Goods Produced but not Sold (I) Goods produced by a foreign country (Japan) in the U.S. (Honda, Toyota) Government spending on the military Increase in business inventories
GDP: What DOES NOT count: Intermediate Goods (Tires sold by Firestone to Ford) Used Goods Non-Market Activities (Illegal, Underground) Transfer Payments (Social Security) Stock Transactions
Shortcomings of GDP: Leading to GDP being understated. Nonmarket activities: (services of homemakers) does not count. Leisure: Does not include the value of leisure. Does not include improvements in product quality. Underground economy
GDP: Overstated Includes damage to the environment Includes more spending on healthcare- Americans being unhealthy. Includes money spent to fight crime-more police officers, more jails, etc…
Real GDP Real GDP= Nominal GDP adjusted for inflation. Calculation: –Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index in Hundredths( deflator) Example: U.S. 2005 Real GDP= $12,4558 (billions) 1.1274 (based on 2000) $11.048 Trillion
Real GDP Per Capita Most commonly used to compare and measure each country’s standard of living and overall economic growth. Real GDP/Nation’s Population
Business Cycles The increases and decreases in Real GDP consisting of four phases: –Peak: highest point of Real GDP –Recession: Real GDP declining for 6 months –Trough: lowest point of Real GDP –Recovery: Real GDP increasing (trough to peak)
Unemployment Calculation: Number of Unemployed Labor Force (Multiplied by 100 to put as a %) The Labor Force is the total of employed and unemployed workers. U.S. unemployment should be about 5%
Employed You are considered to be employed if: –You work for 1 hour as a paid employee (so part-time workers count) –You are temporarily absent from work (illness, strike, vacation) –You work 15 hours or more as an unpaid worker (family farms are common)
Unemployed Must be looking for work (at least 1 attempt in the past 4 weeks) Are reporting to a job within 30 days They are temporarily laid off from their job
Types of Unemployment Frictional: Have skills that are in demand; just need time to find a job (College Graduate) Structural: Current skills do not match job openings (Factor jobs being outsourced; Flight attendant after 9/11/2001). –Frictional + Structural = Natural Rate of Unemployment (Full –Employment rate) Cyclical: Due to a recession (Requires Government action).
Not In Labor Force A person who is not looking for work: –Full-time students –Stay at home parents –Discouraged workers: those who have given up hope of finding a job. –Retirees
Inflation Rise in the general level of prices Reduces the purchasing power of money Measured with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) –Reports the price of a market basket, more than 300 goods that are typically purchased by an urban household
Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI = Recent Price of Market Basket Price of same basket in base year (This number is then multiplied by 100) Example: Assuming only 2 Goods Recent YearBase Year P QP Q Jeans $25 5$20 5 Pizza $20 10$15 10 $325 = 1.3 * 100=130 $250
Calculating Inflation CPI in Recent Year – CPI in Past Year Divided by CPI in Past Year (Number then Multiplied by 100) Example: 2002 CPI = 179.9 2001 CPI = 177.1 Rate of Inflation: 179.9-177.1 = 1.58% 177.1
Types of Inflation Demand Pull Inflation: ‘too much money chasing too few goods.” –AD Curve will shift to the right, resulting in a higher Price Level and greater Output (up til FE) Cost-Push Inflation: Major cause is a supply shock-OPEC cutting back on oil production –AS Curve will shift to the left resulting in a higher Price Level and a decrease in Real GDP.
Real and Nominal Terms Real Income = Nominal Income Price Index (Hundredths) Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation Rate Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Inflation Premium (anticipated inflation)
Inflation: Winners & Losers Winners: –Debtors who borrow money that will be repaid with “cheap” dollars. –Those who have anticipate inflation Losers: –Savers (especially savings accounts) –Creditors (Banks will be repaid with those “cheap” dollars –Fixed-Income Recipients (retirees receiving the same monthly pension)
Consumption and Saving As income increases, both consumption and savings will increase. The determinants of overall consumption and savings are: (More money or a positive outlook will increase consumption and reduce savings. Less money or a negative outlook will increase savings and reduce consumption. –Wealth (financial assets) –Expectations about future prices and income –Real Interest Rates –Household Debt –Taxes
Marginal Propensities Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) and the Marginal Propensity to save (MPS) must equal 1. The MPS is used to derive the spending multiplier, which equals: 1 MPS If the MPS is.2, the spending multiplier is 5. Any increase in spending must be multiplied by 5 to determine the overall increase in Real GDP.
Interest Rate-Investment Expected Rate of Return: Amount of Profit (expressed as a percentage) a business expects to gain on a project/investment. –This rate must be greater than the interest in order to be profitable. –The Real Rate of Return is most important. An expected profit of 10%, that costs 5% in interest = The real rate of return: 5%.
Investment Demand Curve: Quantity of Investment Real Rate of Return ID r1 r2 Q1 Q2 At lower real interest rates businesses will Increase investment, leading to an increase In AD (aggregate demand). At higher rates of Interest, less money will be invested
Shifts of the Investment Demand Curve PL Real GDP ID1 ID2 ID3 A shift from ID1 to ID2 Represents an increase in Investment demand. A shift From ID1 to ID3 represents a decrease in investment Demand.
Aggregate Demand AD (C + I + G + X) Price Level Real GDP Downward sloping: 1.Real-Balances Effect: change in purchasing power 2. Interest-Rate Effect: Higher interest rates curtail spending 3.Foreign Purchase Effect: Substitute foreign products for U.S. products
Aggregate Demand Determinants of AD: –C + I + G + X (Yes, its GDP) –An increase in any of these, due to lower interest rates or optimism will increase AD and shift the curve to the right. –A decrease in any of these: more debt, less spending, tax increase, will cause a decrease in AD and shift the curve to the left
Aggregate Demand Determinants Consumption –Wealth –Expectations –Debt –Taxes Investment –Interest Rates –Expected Returns Technology Inventories Taxes Government –Change in Gov. spending Net Exports –National Income Abroad –Exchange Rates
Aggregate Supply Factors: R: resource prices (wages and materials, as well as OIL) A: actions by government (Taxes, Subsidies, more regulation) P: productivity (better technology)
Aggregate Supply Short Run: –Assumes that nominal wages are “sticky” and do not respond to price level changes. –Is Upward sloping as businesses will increase output to maximize profits Long Run: –Curve is vertical because the economy is at its full- employment output. –As prices go up, wages have adjusted so there is no incentive to increase production.
Aggregate Supply Graph Price Level AS Recession Growth Inflation Short Run Long Run QF Extended vertical line Illustrates the LRAS and QF (Full-Employment) Real GDP
Demand-Pull Inflation AD1 (C + I + G + X) AD2 AS Price Level Real GDP QF P1 P2
Cost-Push Inflation QFQ2 P1 P2 Price Level Real GDP AD1 ( C + I + G + X) AS1 AS2
Fiscal Policy Using Taxes and Government spending to stabilize the economy. Controlled by the President and Congress Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Congress must take action (change the tax rates) in order for the action to be implemented. Automatic Stabilizers: Unemployment benefits, Progressive Tax System, these changes are implemented automatically to help the economy.
Types of Fiscal Policy Expansionary –Used to Fight a Recesssion –LOWER TAXES –INCREASE GOVERNMENT SPENDING Contractionary –Used to fight Inflation –RAISE TAXES –DECREASE GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Increasing Government Spending and or cutting taxes will shift AD to the right and increase output and the price level. Price Level Real GDP AD1 ( C + I + G + X ) AD2 As1 P1 QFEQ1 P2
Tax Multiplier Remember, if the government decreases taxes, the result is not as great as a spending increase, since households will save a portion (MPS) of the tax cut. The Tax Multiplier = MPC X Spending Multiplier. –Example: If the MPC is.8 and the MPS is.2 –Spending Multiplier = 1/.2 or 5 –Tax Multiplier =.8 X 5 or 4
Loanable Funds Market & Expansionary Fiscal Policy Used for FISCAL POLICY (Government spending-Deficit Spending) Quantity of Funds Real Interest Rate D1 D2 An increase in Gov. spending increases the demand for loanable funds and raises real interest rates R1 R2 Q1 Q2
Crowding-Out Effect An Expansionary Fiscal Policy as previously diagrammed will lead to higher interest rates. At higher interest rates, businesses will take out fewer loans and there will be a decrease in INVESTMENT (I) At the same time there will be a decrease in CONSUMER SPENDING (C) as they will take out fewer loans as well. This CROWDING OUT EFFECT will reduce the gain made by the expansionary fiscal policy.
Net Export Effect & Expansionary Fiscal Policy Government spending has led to an increase in interest rates. At higher interest rates, foreigners demand more U.S. dollars to invest in bonds. This leads to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. This leads to a decrease in Net Exports, as foreigners now have to exchange more of their currency for the U.S. dollar to buy exports. This decrease in Net Exports will reduce AD and counter to some extent the expansionary fiscal policy.
Contractionary Fiscal Policy Raising taxes or reducing government spending to fight inflation and stabilize the economy. Price Level Real GDP AD1 P1 P2 AD2 QF AS
Loanable Funds Market & Contractionary Fiscal Policy Used for FISCAL POLICY (Government spending-Deficit Spending) Quantity of Funds Real Interest Rate D2 D1 A decrease in Gov. spending decreases the demand for loanable funds and lowers real interest rates R2 R1 Q2 Q1
Net Export Effect & Contractionary Fiscal Policy A decrease in government spending has led to a decrease in real interest rates. At lower interest rates, foreigners demand less U.S. dollars to invest in bonds. This leads to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar. This leads to an increase in Net Exports, as foreigners now have to exchange less of their currency for the U.S. dollar to buy exports. This increase in Net Exports will increase AD and further strengthen the contractionary fiscal policy.
Criticisms of Fiscal Policy Timing Problems –Recognition Lag: identifying recession or inflation –Administrative Lag: getting Congress/President to agree to take action –Operational Lag: Time needed to see the results of the fiscal policy –Political Business Cycles: Politicians may take inappropriate action to get reelected (lower taxes during an inflationary period). Plus it is difficult to raise taxes
Money Supply Terms M1= Checkable Deposits and Currency M2= M1 + Savings deposits, money market accounts, small time deposits (less than $100,000) Velocity of Money Equation: –MV = PQ ( GDP) (M= Money Supply and V = Velocity (number of times per year the average dollar is spent on goods and services.
The Federal Reserve System (FED) Control Monetary Policy Headquartered in Washington D.C. 12 Federal Reserve Districts Board of Governors (7 members) is the central authority Members are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Made up of 12 people: Board of Governors + New York FED President + 4 other regional presidents (who rotate) Meets regularly to direct OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS (buying or selling of bonds) to maintain or change interest rates
Banks and Balance Sheets AssetsLiabilities Reserves$15,000Checkable Deposits$100,000 Securities$15,000 Loans$70,000 If the current reserve requirement is 10%: 1. What is the amount of new loans this bank can generate? Answer: $100,000 Checkable deposits X a 10% reserve requirement = $10,000 required reserves. If the bank has $15,000 in reservers, $5,000 of those are excess reserves and can be loaned out. 2. How much in new loans can be generated by the entire banking system? Answer: Money Multiplier = 1/Required Reserve Ratio=1/.10 10 X $5,000 = $50,000
FED and the Money Market MS1 MS2 MD Nominal Interest Rate Quantity of Money I1 I2 Q1 Q2 Vertical curve-Supply controlled By the FED. An increase in MS leads to a rightward shift and lower interest rates.
Easy Money Policy Buying Government Bonds, lowering the discount rate, or lowering reserve requirements, to fight a recession, by decreasing interest rates, increasing investment spending and/or consumption and increasing AD. Price Level Real GDP Q1 P1 P2 QF AS AD2 AD1 (C + I + G + X)
Effects of an Easy Money Policy LOWER INTEREST rates which will lead to an INCREASE in INVESTMENT and CONSUMPTION. The U.S. dollar will DEPRECIATE, leading to an increase in NET EXPORTS as well. These effects STRENGTHEN the overall monetary policy (opposite of fiscal policy’s crowding-out and net export effect
FED and a TIGHT Money Policy MS2 MS1 MD Nominal Interest Rate Quantity of Money I2 I1 Q2 12 Vertical curve-Supply controlled By the FED. A decrease in the Money supply, shifts the MS curve to the left and raises interest rates.
Tight Money Policy Selling bonds, raising the discount rate, or raising reserve requirements to fight inflation which will raise interest rates, decrease investment and/or consumption and decrease Aggregate Demand (AD). Price Level Real GDP AD1 P1 P2 AD2 QF AS
Effects of a Tight Money Policy At the higher interest rates, INVESTMENT SPENDING, and CONSUMPTION will decrease. At higher interest rates, the U.S. dollar will APPRECIATE (foreigners demand more U.S. securities). This will lead to a DECREASE in NET EXPORTS. Again, the Monetary Policy is STRENGTHENED as a result, unlike the effects of a contractionary fiscal policy.
Extended AD-AS Model This is the other way to graph the AD-AS Model AD Price Level Real GDP QF P1 SRAS LRAS The intersection of the 3 curves Is the Full-Employment Equilibrium
Extended AD-AS Model and Demand-Pull Inflation In Demand-Pull Inflation, the AD curve has shifted to the right of the LRAS and SRAS intersection. AD2 Price Level Real GDP QF P2 SRAS LRAS Q2 The Price Level and Real GDP has increased. AD1 PF
Extended AD-AS and Demand-Pull Inflation Mainstream economists will fight inflation as previously discussed: with either a tight monetary policy or a contractionary fiscal policy. The goal would be to move the aggregate demand curve to the left. Classical economists would argue to DO NOTHING. As nominal wages rise, the SHORT-RUN AS curve will shift to the left (resources and wages are becoming more expensive), restoring the economy to its full- employment output level, but with a higher Price Level.
Extended AD-AS Model and Cost-Push Inflation AD1 Price Level Real GDP QF SRAS2 LRAS Cost-Push inflation occurs when the SRAS has shifted to the left Of the LRAS and AD intersection. P1 Q1 Here the Price level has Increased and REAL GDP has decreased. SRAS1 PF
Extended AD-AS and Cost-Push Inflation Mainstream economists must decide whether to target the Price Level or Unemployment, before taking any action. Classical economists would argue to DO NOTHING. Eventually, wages and resource prices must decrease and when they do the SRAS curve will shift back to the right, restoring the economy to its full-employment output level and the original Price Level.
Extended AD-AS Model and Recession In a recession due to a decrease in AD, the AD curve is to the left of the LRAS and SRAS intersection; showing a decrease in both the Price Level and Real GDP. AD Price Level Real GDP QF SRAS LRAS P1 Q1 PF
Extended AD-AS and Recession Mainstream economists will fight a recession as previously discussed: with either an easy money policy or an expansionary fiscal policy. The goal would be to move the aggregate demand curve to the right. Classical economists would argue to DO NOTHING. The decrease in wages and resource prices will shift the SRAS curve to the right, restoring the economy to its full-employment output level, but with a LOWER price. (SELF-CORRECTION)
Short-Run Phillips Curve Suggests an inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Inflation Rate (percent) Unemployment Rate (percent) 2 8 2 8 When the unemployment rate is Low (2%), the inflation rate will Most likely be high (8%). When the Unemployment rate Is high, inflation will likely be low. SRPC1
Short-Run Phillips Curve When the Government fights unemployment, typically higher inflation will result. When the Government fights inflation, typically, more unemployment will result. Thereby, we move along the Short-Run Phillips Curve. Inflation Rate (percent) Unemployment Rate (percent) A B 7 2 36 SRPC1
Shifting the Short-Run Phillips Curve The Short-Run Phillips curve can also shift, this would mean that both the unemployment rate and inflation rate are changing at the same time. SRPC1 SRPC2 4 5 67 Stagflation, unemployment and Inflation occurring together (OPEC decreasing Oil supply, causes this type of shift) Inflation Rate % Unemployment Rate %
Shifting the Short-Run Phillips Curve The Short-Run Phillips curve can also shift, this would mean that both the unemployment rate and inflation rate are changing at the same time. SRP2 SRPC1 5 7 When Supply increases (productivity surge in 90s) more than demand, prices will fall, while GDP and employment Increase; shifting the curve to the left. Inflation Rate % Unemployment Rate % 3 5
Long-Run Phillips Curve The Long-Run Phillips Curve is vertical, like the Long Run Aggregate Supply Curve. So, in the long run there is no tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Only the Price Level will change. Inflation Rate% Unemployment Rate % 5 3 SRPC LRPC
Laffer Curve What is the optimal tax rate? A tax of 0% will provide no tax revenue. A tax rate of 100% will also lead to no tax revenue (no incentive to work). Answer must be somewhere in between. Tax Rate Tax Revenue 0 100
Economic Growth Five Factors connected to long run economic growth. Supply Factors: –Increase in natural resources (quantity and quality) –Increase in human resources (quantity and quality) –Increase in capital goods –Improvements in technology Demand Factors: –Increase in consumption by households, businesses, and government
Illustrating Economic Growth Production Possibilities Curve Capital Goods Consumer Goods A B PPC1 PPC2
Illustrating Long Run Growth Can also be illustrated with the extended AD-AS Model. Real GDP Price Level AD1 AD2 SRAS1 SRAS2 LRAS1 LRAS2 Q1 Q2 P1 P2
Budget Philosophies Annually Balanced Budget: Government will spend what it makes. Problem: Does not have money during a recession, it will not be able to increase spending to help the economy. If there is inflation, it will also be forced to spend the extra money In both cases the economy will be worse off Cyclically Balanced Budget: Government will finance a deficit during a recession and pay it off with tax revenue received during expansion. Problem: A long recession may run up a large deficit that a short expansion period can not pay off
National Debt ($8.7 Trillion and growing) Functional Finance: A deficit is necessary to balance the economy. The national debt should not be worried about too much. Causes of the Debt: 1. Wars 2. Recessions 3. Lack of Fiscal Discipline Concerns: 1. Interest Payments 2. Income Gap (Debt and interest payments held by the wealthy) 2. Crowding Out
Economic Philosophies Classical: Believes that the government SHOULD NOT interfere in the economy. And believes in self-correction of economic problems. Keynesian: Believes that GOVERNMENT SHOULD interfere in the economy (taxes, government spending)
International Trade Comparative Advantage and Specialization allows for economic growth and efficiency. (More of each good can be obtained by trading-Trading line illustrates this) Trade barriers create more economic loss than benefits. Today there is a trend towards free trade and a reduction in trade barriers. Strongest arguments for protection are the infant industry and military self-sufficiency arguments. WTO oversees trade agreements and disputes, but has become a target of protesters lately.
Foreign Exchange Market Let’s say a U.S. citizen travels to Japan. This transaction will provide a supply of the U.S. dollar and result in a demand for yen. It will become cheaper for the Japanese to buy the dollar and more expensive for Americans to buy the Yen. The Yen is Appreciating and the dollar is Depreciating. Quantity of U.S. Dollars Quantity of Yen Yen Price of dollar Dollar Price of Yen P1 Q1 D1 S1 S2 P2 Q2 P1 Q1 D1 S1 D2 Q2 P2
Balance of Payments: The sum of all transactions between U.S. residents and residents of all foreign nations Current Account: Shows U.S. exports and U.S. imports of goods and services. Capital Account: Shows the U.S. investment (financial as well as capital-plants and factories) abroad and Foreign investment in the U.S. Credits: A credit are those transactions for which the U.S. receives income (exports, foreign purchase of assets) Debits: Those transactions that the U.S. must pay for: imports and purchasing of assets abroad.
Balance of Payments continued The Current Account and Capital Account must be equal. Official Reserves Account: The Central Banks of all nations hold foreign currency to make up any deficit in the combined capital and current accounts. If the U.S. has more credits than debits it finances this difference by dipping into its reserve account.