Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T"— Presentation transcript:
1 Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T. Watson MA Board Co-chair Informal Joint Meeting of the CBD SBSTTA and UNFCCC SBSTA, Montreal November 30, 2005This set of slides was prepared by Walt Reid (borrowing several slides prepared by others involved in the MA). The slides focus on the findings of the MA synthesis report (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (W. Reid, H. Mooney, A. Cropper et. al.), 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington D.C.The slides were prepared with MS PowerPoint 2003 (SP2). Some of the animation may not run on earlier versions of Powerpoint.The slides include references in the ‘notes’ section to the relevant figures in that report or in other MA reports and text from the MA synthesis report relevant to the issues illustrated in the figures. Several figures in this slide set do not appear in the MA but are included to illustrate points commonly made in presenting the MA findings. The source of those non-MA figures is noted.
2 Key design features of the MA Political legitimacyAuthorized by four conventions and UNScientific credibilityFollows IPCC proceduresUtilityFocus strongly shaped by audienceStrong sub-global featuresFCCCRamsarCCDCBDCMSSBSTASTRPCSTSBSTTASCIPCCMAResearch, UN Data, National and International Assessments
3 MA FactsNumber of Working Groups (Condition, Scenarios, Responses, Sub-global): 4Number of chapters: 81Number of pages (all publications): ~3,000Number of experts preparing the assessment: 1,360 (including 50 young fellows)Number of countries with experts involved: 95Number of Review Editors: 80Reviews solicited from: 185 countries through 600 national focal pointsReviews solicited from: 2,516 expertsNumber of individual review comments received (and responded to): 20,745Most individual comments on one chapter: 850 comments (66 pages) on Biodiversity responses chapter.Amount raised: $17 millionAnnual cost as percent of US Global Climate Change Research Budget: 0.2%Estimated total cost (including in-kind contributions of experts): $25 millionUS Global Climate Research Program Budget: $1.7 billion U.S. Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP). Average annual budget for MA: $4.25 million per year.
4 MA Conceptual Framework Human Well-being andPoverty ReductionBasic material for a good lifeHealthGood Social RelationsSecurityFreedom of choice and actionIndirect Drivers of ChangeDemographicEconomic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)Science and TechnologyCultural and ReligiousDirectDriversIndirectEcosystemServicesHumanWell-beingLife on Earth:BiodiversityDirect Drivers of ChangeChanges in land useSpecies introduction or removalTechnology adaptation and useExternal inputs (e.g., irrigation)Resource consumptionClimate changeNatural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)The conceptual framework for the MA posits that people are integral parts of ecosystems and that a dynamic interactionexists between them and other parts of ecosystems, with the changing human condition driving, both directlyand indirectly, changes in ecosystems and thereby causing changes in human well-being. (See Figure B.) At the sametime, social, economic, and cultural factors unrelated to ecosystems alter the human condition, and many naturalforces influence ecosystems. Although the MA emphasizes the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being, itrecognizes that the actions people take that influence ecosystems result not just from concern about human well-beingbut also from considerations of the intrinsic value of species and ecosystems. Intrinsic value is the value of somethingin and for itself, irrespective of its utility for someone else.Changes in drivers that indirectly affect biodiversity, such as population, technology, and lifestyle (upper right corner of Figure), can lead to changesin drivers directly affecting biodiversity, such as the catch of fish or the application of fertilizers (lower right corner). These result in changes toecosystems and the services they provide (lower left corner), thereby affecting human well-being. These interactions can take place at more thanone scale and can cross scales. For example, an international demand for timber may lead to a regional loss of forest cover, which increasesflood magnitude along a local stretch of a river. Similarly, the interactions can take place across different time scales. Different strategies andinterventions can be applied at many points in this framework to enhance human well-being and conserve ecosystems.
5 What was unique? Ecosystem services ProvisioningGoods produced or provided by ecosystemsRegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processesCulturalNon-material benefits from ecosystemsThe assessment focuses on the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being and, in particular, on “ecosystemservices.” An ecosystem is a dynamic complex of plant, animal, and microorganism communities and the nonlivingenvironment interacting as a functional unit. The MA deals with the full range of ecosystems—from those relativelyundisturbed, such as natural forests, to landscapes with mixed patterns of human use, to ecosystems intensively managedand modified by humans, such as agricultural land and urban areas. Ecosystem services are the benefits peopleobtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services thataffect climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water quality; cultural services that provide recreational, aesthetic, and spiritualbenefits; and supporting services such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. Thehuman species, while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology, is fundamentally dependenton the flow of ecosystem services.Original version of this slide was prepared by Karen Bennett, WRI.Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan Widstrand
6 Converting an ecosystem means losing some services and gaining others – e.g., A mangrove ecosystem: housingshrimpA forest into agricultural lands; a wetland into a shopping mall or airport;Provides nursery and adult habitat ,Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; traps sediment; detoxifies pollutants;protects coastline from erosion & disastercrops
7 Valuation of Ecosystem Services The total economic value associated with managing ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than the value associated with conversionConversion may still occur because private economic benefits are often greater for the converted system
8 Core Questions What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change? What are the consequences of ecosystem change for the services provided by ecosystems and for human-well being?How might ecosystems and their services change over the next 50 years?What options exist to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contributions to human well-being?Five overarching questions, along with more detailed lists of user needs developed through discussions with stakeholdersor provided by governments through international conventions, guided the issues that were assessed:
9 Environmental Management MA ScenariosWorld DevelopmentGlobalization RegionalizationGlobal OrchestrationOrder from StrengthProactive ReactiveEnvironmental ManagementTechnoGardenAdapting Mosaic
10 Main FindingsHumans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years2. Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals3. Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but can be reversed.
11 The Balance Sheet – to date EnhancedDegradedMixedCropsLivestockAquacultureCarbon sequestrationCapture fisheriesWild foodsWood fuelGenetic resourcesBiochemicalsFresh WaterAir quality regulationRegional & local climate regulationErosion regulationWater purificationPest regulationPollinationNatural Hazard regulationSpiritual & religiousAesthetic valuesTimberFiberWater regulationDisease regulationRecreation & ecotourismMA Synthesis SDM (p. 6): “Approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystem services evaluated in this assessment (including 70% of regulating and cultural services) are being degraded or used unsustainably. Ecosystem services that have been degraded over the past 50 years include capture fisheries, water supply, waste treatment and detoxification, water purification, natural hazard protection, regulation of air quality, regulation of regional and local climate, regulation of erosion, spiritual fulfillment, and aesthetic enjoyment. The use of two ecosystem services—capturefisheries and fresh water—is now well beyond levels that can be sustained even at current demands, much less future ones. At least one quarter of important commercial fish stocks are overharvested (high certainty). (See Figures 5, 6, and 7.) From 5% to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies and is now met either through engineered water transfers or overdraft of groundwater supplies (low to medium certainty). Some 15–35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty). While 15services have been degraded, only 4 have been enhanced in the past 50 years, three of which involve food production: crops, livestock, and aquaculture. Terrestrial ecosystems were on average a net source of CO2 emissions during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but became a net sink around the middle of the last century, and thus in the last 50 years the role of ecosystems in regulating global climate through carbonsequestration has also been enhanced.”Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are DegradedProvisioning services are being enhanced at the cost of regulating & cultural services
12 Climate and Biodiversity Key conclusions regarding the interactions between climate and biodiversityMA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.
13 Key ConclusionsThere is wide recognition that human-induced climate change is a serious environmental and development issue and in conjunction with other stresses threatens ecological systems and their biodiversityThe Earth is warming, with most of the warming of the last 50 years attributable to human activities; precipitation patterns are changing, and sea level is rising. The global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the last 100 years, and is projected to increase by a further 1.4–5.8 degrees Celsius by The spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation have already changed and are projected to change even more in the future, with an increasing incidence of floods and droughts. Sea levels have already risen 10–25 cm during the last 100 years and are projected to rise an additional 8–88 cm by 2100Observed changes in climate have already affected ecological, social, and economic systems, and the achievement of sustainable development is threatened by projected changes in climate.MA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.
14 Trends in Drivers of Ecosystem Change Almost all of the key direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services are either remaining constant in their impact or growing in impact in all of the MA Systems.MA Synthesis Figure 4.3. Main Direct Drivers of Change in Biodiversity and Ecosystems (CWG)The cell color indicates impact of each driver on biodiversity in each type of ecosystem over the past 50–100 years. High impact means that over thelast century the particular driver has significantly altered biodiversity in that biome; low impact indicates that it has had little influence on biodiversity in the biome. The arrows indicate the trend in the driver. Horizontal arrows indicate a continuation of the current level of impact; diagonal and vertical arrows indicate progressively increasing trends in impact. Thus for example, if an ecosystem had experienced a very high impact of a particular driver in the past century (such as the impact of invasive species on islands), a horizontal arrow indicates that this very high impact is likely to continue. This Figure is based on expert opinion consistent with and based on the analysis of drivers of change in the various chapters of the assessment report of the MA Condition and Trends Working Group. The Figure presents global impacts and trends that may be different from those in specific regions.Trends in DriversSource: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
15 Percent of habitat (biome) remaining Habitat Loss to 2050under MA ScenariosHabitat Loss to 1990Mediterranean ForestsTemperate Grasslands & WoodlandsTemperate Broadleaf ForestTropical Dry ForestTropical GrasslandsTropical Coniferous ForestAdapted from MA Synthesis Figure 3. Conversion of Terrestrial Biomes (Adapted from C4, S10)It is not possible to estimate accurately the extent of different biomes prior to significant human impact, but it is possible to determine the “potential” area of biomes based on soil and climatic conditions. This Figure shows how much of that potential area is estimated to have been converted by 1950 (medium certainty), how much was converted between 1950 and 1990 (medium certainty), and how much would be converted under the four MA scenarios (low certainty) between 1990 and 2050.For the scenarios, the midpoint of the scenario values is plotted hereTropical Moist ForestPercent of habitat (biome) remainingSource: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
16 Temperature Change (oC) from 1990 Figure 3.20 in MA Biodiversity Synthesis reportSource: IPCC 2001
17 Hot Spots of Biodiversity Climate change challenges the concept of small isolated protected areas
18 Change in Species Diversity Number per Thousand Species100 to 1000-fold increaseMA Synthesis Figure SDM 4 (Extinctions) and Figure 1.7 HomogenizationFigure 4. Species Extinction Rates (Adapted from C4 Fig 4.22) “Distant past” refers to average extinction rates as estimated from the fossil record. “Recent past” refers to extinction rates calculated from known extinctions of species (lower estimate) or known extinctions plus “possibly extinct” species (upper bound). A species is considered to be “possibly extinct” if it is believed by experts to be extinct but extensive surveys have not yet been undertaken to confirm its disappearance. “Future” extinctions are model derived estimates using a variety of techniques, including species-area models, rates at which species are shifting to increasingly more threatened categories, extinction probabilities associated with the IUCN categories of threat, impacts of projected habitat loss on species currently threatened with habitat loss, and correlation of species loss with energy consumption. The time frame and species groups involved differ among the “future” estimates, but in general refer to either future loss of species based on the level of threat that exists today or current and future loss of species as a result of habitat changes taking place over the period of roughly 1970 to Estimates based on the fossil record are low certainty; lower-bound estimates for known extinctions are high certainty and upper-bound estimates are medium certainty; lower-bound estimates for modeled extinctions are low certainty and upper-bound estimates are speculative. The rate of known extinctions of species in the past century is roughly 50–500 times greater than the extinction rate calculated from the fossil record of 0.1–1 extinctions per 1,000 species per 1,000 years. The rate is up to 1,000 times higher than the background extinction rates if possibly extinct species are included.Figure 1.7. Growth in Number of Marine Species Introductions (C11). Number of new records of established non-native invertebrate and algae species reported in marine waters of North America, shown by date of first record, and number of new records of non-native marine plant species reported on the European coast, by date of first record.From text on MA Synthesis SDM p. 4: “Humans are fundamentally, and to a significant extent irreversibly, changing the diversityof life on Earth, and most of these changes represent a loss of biodiversity.■ Across a range of taxonomic groups, either the population size or range or both of the majority of species is currently declining.■ The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more homogenous; in other words, the set of species in any one region of the worldis becoming more similar to the set in other regions primarily as a result of introductions of species, both intentionally and inadvertently inassociation with increased travel and shipping.■ The number of species on the planet is declining. Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased the species extinctionrate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty). (See Figure 4.) Some 10–30% ofmammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty). Freshwater ecosystems tend tohave the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction.Plotting note for PowerPoint slide: To plot correctly, upper bound of fossil changed from 1 to .9 and upper bound of Future changed from to 9000Extinctions(per thousand years)Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
19 Climate impacts on cereal production capacity, ECHAM4 2080s, Rain-fed multiple croppingBRAZILINDIARUSSIACHINA
20 Recent Findings (post MA) Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate changeA number of increased concerns have arisen:Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chainAn increase in ocean surface temperature of 1oC is likely to lead to extensive coral bleachingReversal of the land carbon sink – possible by the end of the CenturyA regional increase of 2.7oC above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5oC above today or 2oC above pre-industrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap – impacting all coastal ecosystems and human settlementsPossible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3oC – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instabilityThe North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut down: one study suggested that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a collapse within 200 years, while another study suggested a 30% chance of a shut down within 100 years
21 The Risks of Climate Change Damages Increase with the Magnitude of Climate Change
22 Key ConclusionsBased on the current understanding of the climate system, and the response of different ecological and socioeconomic systems, if significant global adverse changes to ecosystems are to be avoided, the best guidance that can currently be given suggests that efforts be made to limit the increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to limit the rate of change to less than 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.This will require that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide be limited to about 450 parts per million and the emissions of other greenhouse gases stabilized or reducedThis optimistically assumes that the climate sensitivity factor is in the middle or lower end of the range ( degrees C)MA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.
23 Recent Findings (post MA) Probability analysis suggests that to limit warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels with a relatively high certainty requires the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide to stay below 400ppmStabilization of the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide at 450ppm would imply a medium likelihood of staying below 2oC above pre-industrial levelsIf the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide were to rise to 550ppm it is unlikely that warming would stay below 2oC above pre-industrial levelsThe World Energy Outlook (2004) predicts that carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 63% over 2002 levels by This means that in the absence of urgent and strenuous actions to reduce GHG emissions in the next 20 years, the world will almost certainly be committed to a warming of between 0.5oC and 2oC relative to today by 2050, i.e., about 1.1oC and 2.6oC above pre-industrial
24 Key ConclusionsIf a long-term target were to be established, intermediate targets and an equitable allocation of emissions would be neededThe technologies of today (energy production and use, carbon capture and storage, and biological sequestration) can put us on the right track until about 2050, but significant improvements will be needed after this time, hence the need for an aggressive energy R&D programRealizing the technical potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will involve the development and implementation of supporting institutions and policies to overcome barriers to the diffusion of these technologies into the marketplace, increased public and private sector funding for research and development, and effective technology transferSuch a target will send a strong signal to the private sector, governments and the research community that there will be a market for climate-friendly technologiesMA Synthesis SDM p. 18: The scale of interventions that result in these positive outcomes are substantial and include significant investments in environmentally sound technology, active adaptive management, proactive action to address environmental problems before their full consequences are experienced, major investments in public goods (such as education and health), strong action to reduce socioeconomic disparities and eliminate poverty, and expanded capacity of people to manage ecosystems adaptively. However, even in scenarios where one or more categories of ecosystem services improve, biodiversity continues to be lost and thus the long-term sustainability of actions to mitigate degradation of ecosystem services is uncertain.
25 Temperature change relative to 1990 (C) Warming resulting from different stabilised concentrations of greenhouse gases: pre-industrialized level ppm, current level ppmTemperature change relative to 1990 (C)Temperature change relative to 1990 (C )9988Temperature change at equilibriumTemperature change in the year 21007766554433221145055065075085095010004505506507508509501000Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
26 Key Conclusions: Adaptation Adverse consequences of climate change can be reduced by adaptation measures, but cannot be completely eliminatedEven with best-practice management it is inevitable that some species will be lost, some ecosystems irreversibly modified, and some environmental goods and services adversely affectedAssess and act upon threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate changeAdaptation to climate change must be part of the development process and not separated from it – must be integrated into national economic planningExisting capacities, (national governments to local communities) which are often weak, form the starting point for anticipatory adaptation actionsThe capacity to adapt is closely related to how society develops with respect to technological capability, level of income and type of governance
27 Findings and data: MAweb.org & Island Press PublicationsSynthesis ReportsSynthesisBoard StatementBiodiversity SynthesisWetlands SynthesisHealth SynthesisDesertification SynthesisBusiness SynthesisTechnical Volumes and MA Conceptual Framework (Island Press)Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for AssessmentState and TrendsScenariosMulti-Scale AssessmentsResponses