1. Case Study 6: Agricultural Research – use and needs of climate services National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize By Anil Sinha, CARDI and Muhammad Ibrahim IICA 30 th October to 1 st November 2013 Radisson Hotel, Fort George, Belize City Presented at

2. Contents of Presentation Introduction Present challenges of existing climate services Uses of climate services Variability in Precipitation Current activities under agricultural research in the Caribbean which uses climate services Needs of climate services in agricultural research Conclusion National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

3. Introduction Caribbean countries including Belize are particularly vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones and increasingly unseasonal adverse weather- related impacts such as heavy rainfall and droughts. This is particularly critical for the Agriculture sector due to its important role in food security and sovereignty and contribution to employment, foreign exchange earnings and rural development in the Region. Accurate and timely availability of predictable climate services would greatly contribute to reduced risks and maximised opportunities associated with climate. Trends in increasing atmospheric CO₂ will likely increase global yields but trends in increasing temperature are likely to reduce global yields – how important will climate change and CO₂ be shaping future crop yields at the global scale. Heat stress and water stress during the critical reproductive period could lead to sterility, lower yields and the risk of complete crop failure. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

4. Introduction Higher temperature causes faster crop development and thus shorter crop duration, which is associated with lower yields. Higher temperature, along with higher atmospheric CO₂ may favour the growth and survival of many insect pests and diseases to agricultural crops. Climate services are related to: Climate variability, and Climate change which is more long term and the needs will be different National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

5. Introduction The chief climate hazards that affect agricultural production in the Caribbean are: Severe weather events, such as, tropical storms and hurricanes High rainfall variability, droughts, floods; Temperature increases, humidity; and Saline intrusion as a result of sea level rise. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

6. Present Challenges of existing Climate Services Climate data is too coarse and not representative of agro-ecological conditions- need to look at spatial distributions of agromet stations Lack of confidence in data especially in short- and long-term predictability Short time window where information is provided Data limited to tempertaure and rainfall National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

7. Uses of Climate Services in Agricultural Research To determine Climate Variability and Impacts on Productivity of crops Crop Modelling: Assessing Crop Production, Nutrient Management, Climate Risk and Environmental Sustainability with Simulation Models Crop Simulation Models for evaluation and selection of climate resilient characteristics Application of Agrometeorological Model to Crop Protection Forecasting and mapping of spatial and temporal patterns of pest and diseases National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

10. Variability in Precipitation: Decadal precipitation recorded at Central Farm, Cayo District, Belize ↓ National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

11. Current Activities of Agricultural Research in the Caribbean which uses Climate Services Crop modelling and irrigation scheduling (Crop simulation Modelling) – Availability of Spatial and temporal scale weather data. Weather related forecasting model for the management of insect pests and diseases – Availability of long period hourly weather data including leaf wetness. Introduction of indigenous and other breeds of cattle, pigs, goats and poultry that are heat tolerant and more feed efficient for meat, milk and egg production – Availability of localized temperature and humidity. Development and identification of drought, flood, salt and high temperature tolerant varieties of staple and commercial crops – Availability of simulation methodologies which could be affordable and adaptable. Effect of climate change, including extreme events, on important economic commodities such as sugarcane, rice, cereal and grain legumes production - Availability of landscape methodologies which could be affordable and adaptable. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

12. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Climate Variability and Impacts on Productivity of crops: Seasonal Rainfall Prediction through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models Use of rainy season prediction and near-real time weather information to support management decisions such as especially irrigation scheduling Length of growing period, This is key Daily values of incoming solar radiation (MJ/m²-day), Maximum and minimum daily air temperature (ºC), Daily total precipitation (mm), dry and wet bulb temperatures and wind speed as optional data Evapotranspiration Level of CO₂ National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

13. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Crop Modelling The minimum data set (MDS) refers to a minimum set of data required to run the crop models and evaluate crop model simulation and outputs. Evaluation requires: Site weather data for the duration of the growing season Site soil profile and soil surface data Crop management data from the experiment Observed experimental data from the experiment Weather Data The minimum required weather data includes: Latitude and longitude of the weather station, Daily values of incoming solar radiation (MJ/m²-day), Maximum and minimum daily air temperature (ºC), and Daily total precipitation (mm). Dry and wet bulb temperatures and wind speed as optional data Long-term measurements of soil moisture

14. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Weather Related Forecasting Modelling for the Management of crop insect pests and diseases National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

15. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Weather Related Forecasting Modelling for the Management of crop insect pests and diseases National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

16. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Weather Related Forecasting Modelling for the Management of crop insect pests and diseases Crop data: Phenological development, Growth, Leaf area and Variety Insect pest and pathogen: Disease intensity and severity, Pest population Weather Data Required (hourly for ten or more years) Precipitation Temperature Sunshine/cloudiness Relative humidity Leaf wetness Wind direction and speed National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

17. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Crop Simulation Models Weather data Daily minimum and maximum temperatures during the growth period Soil temperature and moisture Precipitation Solar radiation Evapotranspiration National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

18. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Agro-ecological Zoning Characterize geographic areas based on Climate Soil Biological (length of growing period)and Yield National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

19. Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research Livestock Research Length of growing period: Rainfall patterns, temporal variations for -selection of pastures (grasses and legumes) -conservation of forages -water supply for animals -control of insect pests, diseases and weeds. Temperature and humidity: -Developing and/or selection of heat tolerant breeds -Developing breeds for increase water use efficiency National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

20. Conclusion Developing production models using climate services requires: Weather data - daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, Soil moisture index. Soil data - soil surface information (slope, color, permeability, drainage, stones); Soil profile information(water holding characteristics, nitrogen, organic matter, phosphorus). Crop management – crop, cultivar, planting date, row and plant spacing, irrigation (dates and amount), fertilizer (dates, amount and type), other applications (chemical) and operations (tillage). National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

21. Conclusion Crop measurements: Yield and yield components (biomass, seed number, seed size, etc.); Phenology (Dates of flowering (50%), physiological maturity, harvest maturity, first seed, etc.). Crop measurements - Growth analysis using Biomass components (leaf, stem, seeds/grains, etc.) at regular time intervals. Soil measurements - Soil moisture at different depths over time; Soil nitrogen/carbon/phosphorus at different depths over time; National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

22. Conclusion Capacity building in interpretation of weather and climate forecast and correlate with agricultural production Capacity building in using and maintenance various weather related equipment (auto) and sensors (leaf wetness sensor) National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

23. Conclusion Reiterating…. Sustaining the activity may hinge upon continued dialogue and collaboration between the four core groups – Meteorologist, Research Officer, Extension Officer, Farmer… National Committees to oversee We have a long way to go!! National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize

24. Thank you National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize