2Purpose of the Workshop Familiarize you with tropical cyclone hazards, characteristics, and behaviorFamiliarize you with the tropical cyclone program and products for GuamDiscuss typhoon risks & vulnerabilities for GuamFamiliarize you with causes of weather around GuamFamiliarize you with other weather and ocean hazards, including rip currents, tsunamis, volcanoesFamiliarize you with Guam’s climateProvide an opportunity for you to ask questions on weather- or climate-related topics
3Tropical Cyclone Topics Tropical Cyclone Characteristics, Behavior and HazardsNWS Tropical Cyclone ProgramNWS Tropical Cyclone ProductsTiming of Products
4Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Tropical Cyclone Structure and BehaviorHazards Associated with a Tropical Cyclone—The Triple Threat
5What Is A Tropical Cyclone? It’s a large area of clouds with a warm core low pressure center, which usually forms over tropical waters and has an organized circulation.It is like a pancake!
6Stages of Tropical Cyclones TROPICAL CYCLONE...a general term that includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoonsTROPICAL DEPRESSION...a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or lessTROPICAL STORM...a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds within the range 39 to 73 mphTYPHOON...a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greaterSUPER TYPHOON...a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater
18Wind Asymmetry Associated With Tropical Cyclones “Right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the cyclone is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the cyclone is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc.In general, the strongest winds are found on the right side of the cyclone because the motion of the cyclone also contributes to its swirling winds.
19Wind Intensity and Distribution in a Tropical Cyclone Strongest winds are located in right quadrant because of effect of speed of movement is added to wind distribution. (Likewise, winds are weaker in left quadrant because effect of the speed of movement is subtracted from the wind field. )Therefore, if cyclone passes south or west of island, then winds may be stronger than forecast. Or, if a cyclone passes north or east of island, then winds may be weaker than forecast.
21Wind Direction if a TC Passes North or East or North of Your Island Bay Ballot’s Law: Face into wind and low pressure is to your right (in the northern hemisphere)If winds are from the NE, the TC is SE of islandIf winds are from the N, the TC is E of islandIf winds are from the NW, the TC is NE of islandIf winds are from the W, the TC is N of islandIf winds are from the SW, the TC is NW of island
22Wind Direction if a TC Passes South or West of Your Island Bay Ballot’s Law: Face into wind and low pressure is to your right (in the northern hemisphere)If winds are from the NE, the TC is SE of islandIf winds are from the E, the TC is S of islandIf winds are from the SE, the TC is SW of islandIf winds are from the S, the TC is W of islandIf winds are from the SW, the TC is NW of island
23HIGH SEAS—Small Craft Stay in Port!!!! Inter-Island Travel is Dangerous!!!! Guam
24STORM SURGEStorm surge is the increase is sea height above the normal tide level, caused by the tropical cyclone’s low pressure and strong winds.Low pressure component ft elevation per 50 mb drop in pressureWind component…strong winds cause water to pile up in the right front quadrant.Inundation is the water that penetrates into normally dry land. Depends on speed and duration of the wind; TC size, speed of motion; shape of coast, slope of bottom, width of the reef; and tidal state (high or low) are all important. The storm surge plus the tide is the storm tide.
28Heavy Rainfall Rainfall produced by cyclones can be highly variable Amounts depend on the size of the storm, the speed at which it is moving, and the location of its rain bandsTypically 6 to 12 inches of rain can fall as a storm passesRain rates can be 6+ inches per hour, 20+ inches totalCoastal flooding will occur when the ocean level is elevated and rain cannot flow back to the seaFlash flooding many occur as streams and rivers overflowMudslides may result due to saturated soils and wind stress on trees and foliage
29Heavy Rainfall Producing Floods and Flash Floods Heavy rains are rapidly directed to the base of the mountain causing flash floodsElevated sea levels prevent rains from draining to the sea causing coastal flooding
30Heavy Rainfall Contributes to Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding
32Heavy Rainfall Producing Mudslides Estimated Critical Parameters~ 15” rain falls in 36 hourscontinued 1” per hour rainWe Will Issue a Special Weather Statement for Mudslides When:~ 10” rain falls in 36 hours or lessrainfall greater than 0.50” per hour is expected to continue
36Heavy Rainfall Producing Mudslides Most Vulnerable Areaswhere a slide occurred before, but bedrock is not exposedthe steeper areas made of claywhere vegetation has been removed
37How Do Tropical Cyclones Get Named? JTWC used to name themNow the World Meteorological Organization names them throughthe Japan Meteorological AgencyFive lists of names taken from 12 countriesDoes anyone know the Chamorro names?
38How Do Tropical Cyclones Get Named? Does anyone know the Chamorro names?Roke, Francisco, Maria, Vicente
44TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAM Tropical cyclone watch and warning proceduresTropical cyclone program products/messagesProducts schedule
45Warning ProcessStarts with the Products of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in HawaiiWeather Service Forecast Office in Guam Analyzes JTWC Products and Issues Watches and WarningsWeather Forecast Office Guam Notifies Guam Civil Defense
46Warning ProcessHomeland Security/Office of Civil Defense Works with the Governor’s Office to set CORs
47Warning ProcessCivil Defense informs the general public and government agencies, and provides preparedness instructions
48Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC): Located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii; area of responsibility is 110 million square milesConsists of a team of Navy and Air Force meteorologists who use numerous tools to analyze TC location, intensity and wind distribution, and computer models to help predict the future movementJTWC responsible for all US tropical cyclone forecasting in the Northwest Pacific
49Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC): Monitors region for developing tropical weather systems—Significant Tropical Weather AdvisoryAlerts that systems are showing the potential for development into SIGNIFICANT tropical cyclones within the next 12 to 24 hours—Tropical Cyclone Formation AlertIssues track and intensity forecasts for all tropical cyclones (30 mph and stronger) in the region—Tropical Cyclone Warnings
50NWS WFO Guam:Monitors Area of Responsibility (AOR) for weather systems showing signs of developing into tropical cyclones—Satellite Interpretation Message.Maintains direct communications with JTWC regarding these areas of disturbed weather.Will issue Special Weather Statements to cover areas not yet warned on by JTWC. We may change to a Tropical Disturbance Advisory
51NWS WFO Guam:Evaluates JTWC warnings for potential effect upon specific islands within the AOR. Based on assessments, WFO Guam sets tropical cyclone watches and warnings, and issues other products.Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories (WTPQ31-35 PGUM)Typhoon Local Statements (WTPQ81-85 PGUM)We watch out for Micronesia and will deviate from the JTWC warnings if we deem it necessary.
52TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH AND WARNING PROCEDURES DEFINITIONSISSUING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE ISLANDSCANCELING WATCHES AND WARNINGS
53DefinitionsDamaging Winds: Sustained surface winds of 39 mph or more (averaged over a 1-minute period).Destructive Winds: Sustained surface winds of 60 mph or more (averaged over a 1-minute period).Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement for specific islands that a tropical storm or developing tropical storm (winds 39 to 73 mph inclusive) poses a possible threat generally within 48 hours.Typhoon Watch: An announcement for specific islands that a typhoon or developing typhoon (winds 74 mph or more) poses a possible threat generally within 48 hours.
54DefinitionsTropical Storm Warning: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including 1-minute sustained surface winds within the range of 39 to 73 mph, that are expected at specified islands within 24 hours or are occurring.Typhoon Warning: A warning that typhoon conditions, including 1-minute sustained surface winds of 74 mph or more, are expected at specified islands within 24 hours or are occurring.
55Issuing Watches and Warnings The goal of timing the typhoon warning on initiation of 39 mph winds is to provide the people about 24 hours—12 hours of daylight—to complete preparations before weather conditions begin to deteriorate significantly.If we issued the warning 24 hours prior to the expected start of typhoon force winds (74 mph or more), final preparations might not be completed before the arrival of damaging winds, exposing people to dangerous conditions. This could happen with a typhoon that speeds up or rapidly intensifies.
56Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.
57Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify.
58Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours.A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph to 73 mph) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.
59Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours.A Typhoon Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify into a typhoon.
60Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours.Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch: If the forecast winds are being produced by a typhoon passing at some distance, the pre-existing typhoon watch is also maintained (remains in effect). (Note that the Typhoon Watch indicates that typhoon strength winds are still possible at the location but not currently expected.) Thus, a Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch may be in effect simultaneously for an island.
61Canceling Watches and Warnings WATCHES are canceled when the threat of the tropical storm or typhoon ends, either by moving away or by dissipatingWARNINGS are canceled when damaging winds (39 mph) cease and the potential for coastal flooding/inundation by the sea has subsided or when damaging winds are no longer expected.In either case, there is close coordination with HS/OCD.
62Canceling Watches and Warnings A typhoon warning will not normally be stepped down to a tropical storm warning as winds diminish to below typhoon intensity at an island. Rather, the typhoon warning will remain in place until winds are less than damaging (below 39 mph), and coastal flooding has ended.A typhoon warning may be downgraded to a tropical storm warning only if a typhoon changes direction or weakens significantly, and typhoon conditions are deemed no longer possible.
63Conditions vs. Watch/Warnings Based on onset of damaging winds… Condition 4: within 72 hoursCondition 3: within 48 hoursCondition 2: within 24 hoursCondition 1: within 12 hoursWatch: within 48 hoursWarning: within 24 hours
64SummaryWatch indicates damaging winds (39 mph) are possible within 48 hours or less.Types of watches: Tropical Storm (39 to 73 mph) or Typhoon (74 mph or greater); provides an indication of the tropical cyclone’s possible sustained wind threat.Warning indicates damaging winds (39 mph) are expected within 24 hours or less.Types of warnings: Tropical Storm (39 to 73 mph) or Typhoon (74 mph or greater); provides an indication of the expected sustained winds at an island as the tropical cyclone passes.
69Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Primary source of cyclone information
70Public AdvisoryUsed to issue and cancel all tropical cyclone watches and warningProvides essential information about tropical cyclone:Location; movement; intensityGives general forecast information: timing of damaging and typhoon winds, storm surge height, and precipitation amountsProvides general call to action statements/ precautions that the public should take
71Types of Public Advisories Standard Public Advisory:Issued every 6 hours (2 pm, 8 pm, 2 am, and 8 am) after receipt of new JTWC warningUsed to place an island in under a watch or warningIntermediate Public AdvisoryIssued between Standard Advisories (11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm, and 5 am)Used to update TC location and track informationMay be used to clear watches and warningsSpecial Public AdvisoryIssued to provide significant TC forecast changes (can be any time except Standard Public Advisory times)May be issued to set new watches or warnings between Standard Advisory times
72Public Advisory Layout ...HEADLINE...SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECTCALL TO ACTION STATEMENTSLOCATION, MOVEMENT & CURRENT INTENSITYFORECAST INFORMATIONNEXT ADVISORY TIME
74Tropical Cyclone Local Statement Detailed bulletin containing tropical cyclone information
75Local StatementsProvides detailed local information regarding the expected magnitude and timing of the tropical cyclone’s threat to each affected islandLists all watches and warnings in effectProvides evacuation and other information from OCDPresents storm specific information: location, movement and intensityWind information: current wind, onset time of damaging and typhoon winds, maximum wind, potential damage from forecast winds, ending timesStorm surge, surf, and inundation informationExpected precipitation amounts and potential for flooding and mudslides
76Local Statement Layout ...HEADLINE...WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECTSTORM SPECIFIC INFORMATIONFOR INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS:PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS (EMO PROVIDED COR/EVACUATION INFO)STORM SURGE/SURF INFORMATIONWIND INFORMATIONPRECIPITATION FORECASTNEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUANCE TIME
78Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) or Zulu (Z) Time What is UTC or Z time?It is the time at Greenwich, EnglandIt is the time on the Zero (0o) MeridianIt is 12 hours from the Date Line (180o) MeridianWhy use UTC or Zulu time?So we can compare times anywhere in the world.How does Guam/Chamorro time differ from UTC?We are 10 hours ahead.00 UTC = 10 am; 12 UTC = 10 pm; 14 UTC = 12 amthe next day; 20 UTC = 6 am the next day
79Product Schedule Tropical cyclone warnings are valid at: 00Z (10 am), 06Z (4 pm), 12Z (10 pm), and 18Z (4 am)Tropical cyclone warnings are issued at:03Z (1 pm), 09Z (7 pm), 15Z (1 am), and 21Z (7 am)
82Position EstimatesOnly issued when tropical cyclone is within radar range (230 miles) and radar info is reliableShort bulletin that updates the center locationLat/long info and as a distance and bearing from one of the Mariana Islands (typically Guam)Updated hourlyThis position data will be used as the location information in succeeding Public Advisories and Local Statements