Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) 1 Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014.

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) 1 Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) 1 Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014

2  A short introduction to GIPPS  Implementation of GIPPS WWRP Polar Prediction Project WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative Presentation by Vladimir Ryabinin  Coordination Outline

3  Global Integrated Polar Prediction System Global: International effort and poles have global influences Integrated: Interconnection between systems and system will be integrated (research, observations and services) Polar prediction will be central  Three time scales Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal) Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal) Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries) GIPPS

4  Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate  Improved models  Improved data assimilation systems  Optimized observing system  Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term planning) Benefits

5 The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (2013-2022) 5

6 Some statements from the report:  The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn)  The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions  Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently  and-insight/risk- insight/reports/climate- change/arctic-report-2012 and-insight/risk- insight/reports/climate- change/arctic-report-2012 Opportunities and Risks

7 PPP Mission Statement „Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal“ An important addition: „This constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“ 7

8 The WWRP-PPP Steering Group 8  Jonny Day (APECS liasion)  Neil Gordon (WMO consultant) SG4, Boulder, 1-3 October 2013  Thomas Jung (chair)  Peter Bauer  David Bromwich  Paco Doblas-Reyes  Chris Fairall  Marika Holland  Trond Iversen  Brian Mills  Pertti Nurmi  Don Perovich  Phil Reid  Ian Renfrew  Gregory Smith  Gunilla Svensson  Mikhail Tolstykh

9 WWRP-PPP Plans

10 Research Areas Source: PPP Implementation Plan

11 Connections – p24 of PPP IP 11

12 Observational Challenges Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012 Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMP and PILOT P. Bauer (ECMWF)

13 Role of Sea Ice in Weather Prediction T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice P. Bauer (ECMWF)

14 Sea ice prediction MITgcm @ 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) and Rignot et al. (2012) Mean September sea ice concentrations (1979-2007)

15 PPP Flagship Activities  Sea ice prediction Explore predictability Develop prediction systems  Linkages between polar regions and lower-latitudes Determine mechanisms and strengths Implications for predictions in the mid-latitudes  Improved availability of observations from polar regions  The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

16 Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 Consolidation Phase mid-2019 to 2022 Community engagement Liaise with funders Align with other planned activities Preparatory research Summer school Workshops Develop imple- mentation plan Intensive observing periods Dedicated model experiments Research into use & value of forecasts Intensive verification effort Model developments Dedicated reanalyses Operational implementation YOPP publications Data denial experiments Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 YOPP mid- 2017 to mid- 2019 Consolidation Phase mid- 2019 to 2022 YOPP conference Summer school Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

17 YOPP Key Elements  Comprehensive observational snapshot In situ and satellite data Observing system design (data denial experiments) Supersites (model grid boxes  MOSAiC)  Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP)  Community data sets (reforecasts, special archiving etc.)  Frontier experiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling)  See draft YOPP Implementation Plan – Inf. 12-1

18 Immediate Plans – ASSW / AOS-2 Helsinki  8 April 2014  One day YOPP Planning meeting – emphasis on observations and many partners invited (including IICWG)  9 April 2014  Thomas Jung will take part in Stakeholders Panel as part of AOS-2 on 9 April  “Town Hall Meeting” with panel discussing PPP/YOPP in evening (panelists include Gilbert Brunet, Thomas Jung and Mark Drinkwater) 18

19 Immediate Plans WWOSC & Linkages  16-21 August 2014  PPP session at World Weather  Open Science Conference, Montréal  PPP-SG-5 meeting in association with this will “finalise” YOPP Plan  10-12 December 2014  International Workshop on Polar-lower Latitudes Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction – being planned for Barcelona. Invitation only; collaboration between PPP and PCPI 19

20 PPP – Take home messges  Polar prediction is a topic of increasing importance  Decision making in the high-latitudes  Implications for the lower-latitudes  PPP promotes research in polar prediction  PPP also promotes research into the use and value of polar predictions in decision making  PPP has a strong educational component  PPP flagship themes  Sea ice prediction  Linkages between polar and non-polar regions  YOPP (see draft YOPP Implementation Plan)

21 Coordination  EC-PORS  International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI)  PPP and PCPI

22 International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction

23 Recommendations of EC-PORS to Cg-17 Points Raised Earlier:  Regular feedback on progress  Coordination between PPP and PCPI, and role of ICO for Polar Prediction at AWI  Coordination with other organisations  Promote GIPPS with  Member states (Trust Fund)  Funding agencies  Consider GIPPS funding from regular WMO budget Suggestion:  Draft proposal to be discussed and possibly revised in Research break out group  Discussion of the outcome with all panel members

24 Thank you! 24

Download ppt "Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) 1 Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014."

Similar presentations

Ads by Google