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KBC Group “Is Benelux boring?” UBS Benelux Financials Conference, September 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "KBC Group “Is Benelux boring?” UBS Benelux Financials Conference, September 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 KBC Group “Is Benelux boring?” UBS Benelux Financials Conference, September 2006

2 1 Important information for investors nThis presentation is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security issued by the KBC Group. nKBC believes that this presentation is reliable, although the information is condensed and therefore incomplete. nThis presentation contains forward-looking statements, involving numerous assumptions and uncertainties. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled and that future developments differ materially. Moreover, KBC does not undertake any obligation to update the presentation in line with new developments. nBy reading this presentation, each investor is deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient expertise to understand the risks involved.

3 2 Contents nThe Benelux demystified nWhat makes KBC different nConclusions

4 3 The Benelux “demystified” There are many common misunderstandings about the Benelux market. I would like to invite you to identify the valid and false statements: nThe Benelux is a small market nThe Benelux is a “consolidated” market nThe Benelux is a “low growth” market nThe Benelux ia a “low efficiency / high cost” market nThe Benelux is a low risk market nThe Benelux is a “low margin / low profitability” market

5 4 Is the Be(ne)lux a small market ? nBanking assets per capita in the Benelux are at the high end of the European spectrum, higher than e.g. France and Germany nAs a consequence, unlike the limited number of inhabitants, total banking assets in the Benelux are approx. 1.5 times higher than in countries like Spain and Italy nHowever, “the Benelux market does not exist”. It comprises 3 sovereign states, 3 languages, 3 markets with different players and different characteristics and dynamics nKBC is a Belux player, operating on the Belgian market with a significant (off-shore) wealth-management presence in Luxembourg Banking assets per capita (in ‘000 euros) Avg EU Mutual funds, AUM per capita (in ‘000 euros) – May 2006 Source: ECB Source: Feri FMI

6 5 Is Belgium a consolidated market ? nConcentration is high, with top-5 institutions holding appx. 85% of the market nIn Belgium, the bancassurance model prevails (all important players are bancassurers) and cross selling rates typically are very high: Market share of 4 largest Belgian banks Share of the 5 largest banks in total assets Avg EU12 banking products X mortgages X asset management X insurance Source: ECB Source: Annual reports

7 6 Is Belgium a low growth market ? nBelgium has experienced “high” growth in many fields nCore growth drivers are: House price inflation (from low average house price levels) driving mortgage book growth and, consequently, building the basis for further cross selling High savings rate, historic low private pension building and muted popularity of offshore investments driving wealth management growth nShift from traditional customer deposits to off- balance sheet products (incl. unit-linked Life) driven by “overliquid” bank balance sheets (sector average loans to deposits at 75%) KBC, Belgium, % y/y Total loans Mort gages Customer deposits Life reserves Assets under management Growth, 1H06+9%+15%+3%+34%+21% Growth, %+16%+4%+38%+31% Growth, %+9%+10%+28%+20% Mutual funds, AUM, est. net sales (in m euros)June May 2006 Source: Feri FMI

8 7 Is Belgium a high cost market ? nAverage staff cost tends to be high with high fiscal/social securities charges and high proportion of higher-educated (better paid) staff nNevertheless, productivity gains have brought C/I levels to decent averages (however, best-in-class C/I levels, such as e.g. in the UK and Spain seem to be out of reach) KBC, Cost/income ratio, Belgium Branches/’ 000 population Source: ECB

9 8 Is Belgium a low risk area ? nThe (private) economy is moderately leveraged: Household and corporate loans to GDP: 70% (vs. 95% average in Europe) Savings rate is high – has been for decades amongst the highest in Europe nCredit exposure is well-diversified: Mostly retail / SME business The number of corporates with a market cap > 1 bn is only 30 KBC, loan loss ratio, Belgium Private loans to GDP Avg EU12 * restated Source: ECB

10 9 Is Belgium a low profit market ? nNIM in Belgium is at the low side (1.94% at KBC in 6M06) due to: The high government bond portfolios (reinvestment of excess of deposits) Competitive presssure in the mortgage field nHowever, NI spreads are not a good denominator for profitability: Risk is low -> please look at risk-adjusted margins Cross selling (F&C income) is high: –Explains why competition in ‘customer binding products’ such as mortgages is high –Far less price competition in Fee & Commission generating products –Gross margin (incl. F&C) to RWA was at ca. 9% ! KBC, Belgium, NIM and gross revenue margin vs RWA * * The increase in gross margin as of 2005 is due to new accounting treatment (IFRS)

11 10 What makes KBC different to its peers ? We believe KBC has the following “competitive” advantages: nGeographical presence nStructuring capabilities in the Asset Management field nDistribution business model

12 11 KBC’s geographical presence nFor historicial reasons, KBC is mainly present in the Northern part of the country: 90% of branches in the North, 10% in the South 35% market share in the North, 5% in the South nThis is highly important since the Northern region is much wealthier that the Southern Population (in m) GDP/ capita (euros) GDP growth Unemploy- ment rate Avg sales price houses (in ‘000 EUR) North %6%122 South %12%81 TotalNorthSouth KBC94680%10% Sector %30% a.o. Fortis Dexia ING804-- Number of branches in 2005 Belgium Brussels Source: Annual reports 2004 figures

13 12 KBC’s structuring capabilities in AM nSince >10 consecutive years, KBC has been able to increase its market share in mutual funds nThe market has a predominantly risk-adverse investment culture and is highly receptive for “structured retail funds”, (e.g. capital guaranteed products) for which KBC has strong product design capabilities: Broad product range: 200 new “products” launched in 2006 Short term to market: 20 days on average from idea to launch Highly cost effective AM product factory : C/I ratio 15% (excl. distribution cost) KBC, retail funds, market share, Belgium Breakdown of KBC’s retail funds, Belgium 30 June 2006

14 13 KBC’s distribution business model nIntegrated business model: One single “governance” from top to bottom (no seperate management, no seperate budgets, no seperate marketing, …) Integrated distribution channels: –Single branding, product offering and pricing –Shared customer database –Streamlined product profitability (shadow accounting) nHigh level of “customer ownership” via branches and tied agents (limited share of broker channel) KBC, insurance, sales volume and market share KBC, insurance distribution channels

15 14 Conclusions KBC has an attractive proposition for you: nInteresting growth potential : in Belgium (and, moreover, in CEE) nWinning business model : bancassurance – asset management nModest risk profile nStrict capital discipline and conservative acquisition policy at Group level

16 Additional information

17 16 KBC at a glance COMPANY PROFILE nTop-20 financial player in Europe with a 32 bn euros market cap nActive in banking, wealth management and insurance with a strongly integrated business model nFocus on retail and SME nKey geographical markets: Top-3 position in Belgium (3m customers) Top-3 position in CEE (9m customers) SHAREHOLDER PROPOSITION nAttractive franchises: Interesting growth potential: CEE and (surprise?) Belgium Winning bancassurance model Modest risk profile nCapital discipline: Dividend policy oriented towards yearly increasing dividend Conservative acquisition policy 2006 share buy-back (1 bn) nIncreased share visibility, liquidity, transparancy

18 17 Financial track record Net profit In m EUR Over the last years, the financial performance improved significantly. FY06 profit is expected to outgrow 3.2 bn euros KBC will update its mid-term financial objectives before the end of the year. Return on equity *Pro forma for the “new” KBC group

19 18 Share return track record

20 19 Current valuation Key figures: nShare price: 84.4 euros nBook value: 42.9 euros nDaily traded volume 8M06 : 54m euro Analyst estimates: 1 n2006 EPS consensus: 9.11 euros (+46%)² n2007 EPS consensus: 7.87euros n2007 P/E: 10.7 Recommendations: nPositive: 67% nNeutral: 33% nNegative: 0% Situation as at 4 September Smart consenus collected by KBC (21 estimates) estimates contain one-off items weighted P/E 2007 unweighted P/E 2007 CEE banks CEE-exposed banks Euro-zone banks KBC BEL banks Weighted and unweighted averages of IBES data : 3 OTP, Komercni, Pekao, BPH PBK, BRE 4 Erste, Unicredit, Soc. Gen., Intesa BCI, BA-CA, RZB Int. 5 Top-20 DJ Euro Stoxx Banks 6 Fortis, Dexia Valuation relative to peer group

21 20 Analysts’ opinions BrokerName analystTelRatingTarget price Ron Heydenrijk Buy110 Ivan Lathouders Accumulate95 Jaap Meijer Outperform105 Kiri Vijayarajah Buy98 Ivan Vatchkov Outperform101 Carlo Ponfoort Accumulate99 Gaelle Jarrousse Hold88 Patrick Leclerc Outperform105 Kurt Debaenst Hold97 Alain Tchibozo Buy106 Christophe Ricetti Buy95 Paul Formanko Overweight92 Jean-Pierre Lambert Market perform96 Albert Ploegh Buy100 Manus Costello Neutral88 Scander Bentchikou Add95 Ton Gietman Hold92 Bart van der Feen de Lille Hold95 Eric Vanpoucke Neutral93 Simon Chiavarini Buy110 Ralf Breuer Buy103 Situation on 4 September 2006

22 21 Contact information Investor Relations Office Luc Cool, Director of IR Surf to for the latest update


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