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Management Futures U09068 Introductions: Navigating the future Unit Coordinator: Dr Zoë Dann Your lecturer: Dr Vesselin Blagoev 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Management Futures U09068 Introductions: Navigating the future Unit Coordinator: Dr Zoë Dann Your lecturer: Dr Vesselin Blagoev 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Management Futures U09068 Introductions: Navigating the future Unit Coordinator: Dr Zoë Dann Your lecturer: Dr Vesselin Blagoev 1

2 Welcome! To a unit in scepticism and crystal ball gazing 2

3 When you leave today you should be able to: Understand some of the inherent difficulties in predicting the future for businesses Appreciate the role of modelling and analysis in reducing uncertainty Be aware of the importance of validity of data Relate the above to unit learning activities

4 About the future…the next 50 minutes Introduction to crystal ball gazing and scepticism –Can we predict the future? –How do we know what is ‘true’? About the unit –Teaching programme –Assessment How do I get the most from this unit? 4

5 Introduction to scepticism and crystal ball gazing 5

6 Mankind has always tried to predict the future… Comets ‘Red sky at night’ Palm reading Chicken entrails Rune stones Tea leaves Tarot cards Crystal ball The Book of Revelations Horoscopes I Ching Nostradamus

7 How successful are we at predicting the future? A little story about the Great Storm... http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_7030000/newsid_7035800/7035868.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&nol_storyid=7035868&bbcws=1

8 Business failures Dot.coms –e.g. Boo.com, –e.g. Petsparks.com Betamax Sinclair C5 8

9 Why consider the future for management? For businesses: As a matter of survival and growth Strategic direction For you: Organisations need employees who are ‘enterprising’ e.g. seek opportunities, problem solvers Explore factors that may influence you now and in the future 9

10 Predicting the future for organisations Plan the future on the basis of a sound understanding of the business environment Importance of forecasting depends on volatility of the environment i.e. change in macro factors Typical techniques: –Trend extrapolation –Expert opinion –Scenario building 10

11 Organisation Macro and Micro Business Environment 11 Macroenvironment Legal Political Economic Social Cultural Environment Technological MicroEnvironment Suppliers Customers OtherStakeholders Competition Organi- sation

12 Macro-environmental ‘Hierarchy’ Business Local National Global

13 Macro-Environmental Factors Business Social Political Economic Technology Infrastructure Environment E.g. Global warming, green products E.g. aging population E.g. Internet, ‘genetic engineering’ E.g. Employment law e.g. Interest rates, Taxes E.g. Discerning customers, greater disposable income E.g. More roads,cheap flights broadband Demographics

14 Government Immigration policy E-commerce Transportation Carbon emissions Global warming Digital technology Migration Employment info Resources Conflict over resources Rise in sea level New products Quality of life Health of populous Personal wealth Employment + + + + + + + - + + + + + + + Materialism + + + + - + + + Income Tax - Environmental influences

15 Trends: Kondratiev long wave 15 Electrical engineering and chemistry Steam engineInformation Technology P = Prosperity R = Recession D= Depression I = Improvement 1800 Petrochemicals Automobiles Railway Steel 1850190020001950 Wave 1Wave 3Wave 2Wave 4Wave 5 P R D I

16 Extrapolating Trends Graph: Temperature change v time Source: New Scientist,, 2007

17 The Complex Dynamic Business Environment Complex System: –more than the sum of the parts –interrelation of factors e.g. feedback, virtuous circles –can be observed on various levels e.g. global, national, local – the observer influences how the system is interpreted (Bertalannfy, 1968) 17

18 How do we know what is ‘true’? Scepticism - The critical you

19 Data: Bad Science or Propaganda? The world is overpopulated…isn’t it? http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce-0iRrt66g http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce-0iRrt66g 19

20 Extrapolating trends 20 Graph: Different predictions of global surface temperature Source: New Scientist,, 2007

21 How do we know it is true? Who is telling the story? What is their agenda? Is the data valid? What is being measured? Its it an appropriate measure? Does data come from a reliable source? 21

22 Who’s story? Pro - Life Voluntary Human Extinction Society

23 Impacts of Trends 23

24 Impacts of trends 24 Highly relevant - examine in further detail Uncertainty of impact Magnitude of impact Reduce uncertainty through modelling Exploit if an opportunity for growth Reduce threat through intervention High

25 A business opportunity An example: BBC trend data – business opportunities BBC trend data – business opportunitiesQuestion: What were the trends that have given rise to this business proposition? http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6300000/newsid_6304100/6304111.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&nol_storyid=6304111&bbcws=1 25

26 So what does all this mean? Difficult to predict the future long term Reduce uncertainty of future by modelling and analysing the business environment Trends analysis and extrapolation are a means of forecasting future events Stakeholders influence the presentation of data – what are the view points

27 About this unit

28 Key questions What are key trends? What evidence is there to support these trends? What opportunities & threats do they present ? How do we evaluate these opportunities and threats? What impact are they likely to have on organisations and industries? How should managers/policy makers respond to these likely changes? 28

29 Some topical subjects Globalisation Consumer culture and materialism Sustainability Aging population 24 hour society Mass customisation Work-life balance EuropeBiotechnology Enterprise Culture 29

30 Assessment Examination 50% –Essay questions both on knowledge and technique –Question 1 compulsory based on seminar presentations + 1 further question from 4 Coursework 50% –Individual report –Impact of trends as a threat or trends leading to an opportunity 30

31 Aims of the module 1 To explore some of the key issues exercising contemporary management theory and practice. 1 To explore some of the key issues exercising contemporary management theory and practice. 2 To examine critically the robustness of knowledge in these areas. 2 To examine critically the robustness of knowledge in these areas. 3 To encourage critical evaluation of claims to predict future trends in management and business. 3 To encourage critical evaluation of claims to predict future trends in management and business. 31

32 Lecture schedule Introduction Opportunity recognition and evaluation Interpreting trend data Demographics Micro trends Environment Consumption, identity and happiness China First life The changing world of work 32

33 Learning outcomes 1 Identify a range of contemporary issues shaping management theory and practice. 1 Identify a range of contemporary issues shaping management theory and practice. 2 Demonstrate knowledge and critically analyze the evidence and argument available to support or challenge the claimed impact of such issues. 2 Demonstrate knowledge and critically analyze the evidence and argument available to support or challenge the claimed impact of such issues. 3 Engage constructively in group activities to generate and evaluate knowledge of future management trends and developments. 3 Engage constructively in group activities to generate and evaluate knowledge of future management trends and developments. 33

34 How do I get the most from this unit? 34

35 Ask: What’s the evidence? Prove it! 2040 35

36 Seek evidence from multiple sources 36

37 Think creatively 37

38 How to get the most out of this module? Think creatively – both systematic and random Read around the subject Be sceptical Attend seminars for support and advise for seminar presentations and coursework Attend… Share resources with others, i.e. via Victory 38

39 Summary What will happen in your world? –Inherently difficult to predict future –Understanding/modelling the environment will help especially key trends How will managers of organisations and industries respond to changes in the environment in the near future? –What might happen? 39


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