1. Modeling Work Group Staff Report MWG Meeting August 1, 2011 Web Meeting

2. 2 MWG analysis of high COI flows is ongoing Past emphasis was on comparisons between PROMOD and Gridview, which evolved into attempts to standardize the input and run assumptions. Currently, focus is on the differences in the generation commitment and dispatch. COI Flow Analysis and Gridview Comparison

3. Result Comparison Comparison to new GV run by Sherman with loads reduced by 3.4% to back out transmission losses. Note large difference in coal generation.

4. Most Significant Gen Differences

5. Annual Energy Difference by Area In general, the trade-off is between coal and combined cycle generation, and appears to be caused by differences in the commitment and dispatch logic. Since the hurdle rates and tie limits effectively separate Alberta from other areas, initial analysis can focus there.

6. Difference in Alberta (MWh)

7. Sample AESO Load/Gen (1)

8. Sample AESO Load/Gen (2)

9. Sample AESO Load/Gen (3)

10. Sample AESO Load/Gen (4)

11. Sample AESO Load/Gen (5)

12. Sample AESO Load/Gen (6)

13. Alberta Coal Dispatch - Promod

14. 14 In PROMOD the hurdle rates represent a financial obstacle that must be overcome to allow economic interchange to occur. If the marginal price in SR A is $30 and the marginal price in SR B is $25 and the hurdle rate from B to A is $7, there would be no interchange. Hurdle Rates

15. 15 TEPPC Hurdle Rates for 2020

16. 16 Wrap-up Next meeting o Need to set date (1 st Monday is holiday) Note TAS meeting is August 8-9 Wrap-up and Next meeting

17. Questions?