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Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins

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2 100 99 10,000 Matt A Theory on Relativity 99

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3 24,999 25,000 99 ? Deterministic Probabilistic Definition of the Denominator

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4 Applied to Electricity 25,000 Expected Generation

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5 Probability Distribution

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6 Expected Margin Margin 25%

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7 Reduced Margin

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8 Margin 5%

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9 Probabilities

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10 Reduced Margin

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11 ~50% Independent Probability P(A) * P(B) ~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW Vulnerabilities

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12 Risk Analysis

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13 Increased Supply Variability Generation Outages Transmission Outages Fuel Adequacy Misoperations

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14 Increased Risk

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15 Increased Risk

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DIVIDING INTEGERS 1. IF THE SIGNS ARE THE SAME THE ANSWER IS POSITIVE 2. IF THE SIGNS ARE DIFFERENT THE ANSWER IS NEGATIVE.

DIVIDING INTEGERS 1. IF THE SIGNS ARE THE SAME THE ANSWER IS POSITIVE 2. IF THE SIGNS ARE DIFFERENT THE ANSWER IS NEGATIVE.

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