1. Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins

2. 2 100 99 10,000 Matt A Theory on Relativity 99

3. 3 24,999 25,000 99 ? Deterministic Probabilistic Definition of the Denominator

4. 4 Applied to Electricity 25,000 Expected Generation

5. 5 Probability Distribution

6. 6 Expected Margin Margin 25%

7. 7 Reduced Margin

8. 8 Margin 5%

9. 9 Probabilities

10. 10 Reduced Margin

11. 11 ~50% Independent Probability P(A) * P(B) ~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW Vulnerabilities

12. 12 Risk Analysis

13. 13 Increased Supply Variability Generation Outages Transmission Outages Fuel Adequacy Misoperations

14. 14 Increased Risk

15. 15 Increased Risk