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Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins

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2 100 99 10,000 Matt A Theory on Relativity 99

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3 24,999 25,000 99 ? Deterministic Probabilistic Definition of the Denominator

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4 Applied to Electricity 25,000 Expected Generation

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5 Probability Distribution

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6 Expected Margin Margin 25%

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7 Reduced Margin

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8 Margin 5%

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9 Probabilities

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10 Reduced Margin

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11 ~50% Independent Probability P(A) * P(B) ~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW Vulnerabilities

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12 Risk Analysis

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13 Increased Supply Variability Generation Outages Transmission Outages Fuel Adequacy Misoperations

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14 Increased Risk

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15 Increased Risk

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