Download presentation

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Published byAngelo Pember Modified over 3 years ago

1
Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins

2
2 100 99 10,000 Matt A Theory on Relativity 99

3
3 24,999 25,000 99 ? Deterministic Probabilistic Definition of the Denominator

4
4 Applied to Electricity 25,000 Expected Generation

5
5 Probability Distribution

6
6 Expected Margin Margin 25%

7
7 Reduced Margin

8
8 Margin 5%

9
9 Probabilities

10
10 Reduced Margin

11
11 ~50% Independent Probability P(A) * P(B) ~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW Vulnerabilities

12
12 Risk Analysis

13
13 Increased Supply Variability Generation Outages Transmission Outages Fuel Adequacy Misoperations

14
14 Increased Risk

15
15 Increased Risk

Similar presentations

OK

MULTIPLYING MONOMIALS TIMES POLYNOMIALS (DISTRIBUTIVE PROPERTY)

MULTIPLYING MONOMIALS TIMES POLYNOMIALS (DISTRIBUTIVE PROPERTY)

© 2018 SlidePlayer.com Inc.

All rights reserved.

Ads by Google

Ppt on state bank of india Ppt on flora and fauna of kerala Ppt on inhabiting other planets in the universe Present ppt on ipad Ppt on transportation in human beings higher Ppt on bill gates as a leader Free ppt on moving coil galvanometer to ammeter Ppt on model view controller python Ppt on series and parallel circuits problems Ppt on video teleconferencing centers