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D1.4.3 - SEAMLESS-IF final version main features Prepared by WP1 Press ESC.

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Presentation on theme: "D1.4.3 - SEAMLESS-IF final version main features Prepared by WP1 Press ESC."— Presentation transcript:

1 D1.4.3 - SEAMLESS-IF final version main features Prepared by WP1 Press ESC

2 D1.4.3 Triple I of SEAMLESS Integrated framework for impact assessment (IA) Applications Individual componentsInfrastructure software Home Main features of SEAMLESS-IF Examples of applications

3 D1.4.3 Assessment Procedure Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

4 D1.4.3 Regional: Sustainable water and nitrogen management, Nitrate directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region in France European: Trade Liberalisation applied in Europe Baseline of SEAMLESS-IF (hard coded, common for both/all applications) Applications Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

5 D1.4.3 G20 (TC1) - scenario description Simplified representation of actual modalities Export subsidies EU set to zero Simulated tariff reductions: –G20 proposal of December 2005 (G20) –December 6 th 2008 agricultural modalities (WTO) Applications

6 D1.4.3 Applications SEAMCAP EXPAMOD FSSIM-MP GTAP APES FSSIM-AM NUTS-2 and EU indicators Farm and regional indicators Non-agricultural global indicators Data of Nuts- 2 and EU Data of activities in 13 regions (out of 300 regions) Global CGE Agriculture EU Extrapolate farm to EU Bio-economic farm model Agricultural production & externalities Trade liberalisation

7 D1.4.3 Applications WTO proposal Income declines in all E27 regions but Malta Losses vary between 0.8 and -16.1%, with an average decline of -5.2% (excluding Aaland) Change in agricultural income (%)

8 D1.4.3 Applications WTO proposal Price change by product group (%)

9 D1.4.3 Applications WTO proposal Change in farm income per region (%)

10 D1.4.3 Implementation of nitrate directive varies by regions: –Results for simulations in Midi-Pyrénées, similar analyses done for other regions for which detailed data are available: Auvergne (FR), Zachodniopomorskie (PL), Sikasso and Koutiala (Mali) Nitrate directive in Midi-Pyrénées: –Improved management of nitrogen fertilization (alternative tech.) –Cross-compliance: 3% cut in premiums if technologies not used Only these two policy elements are implemented in FSSIM –Limit to nitrogen in animal effluents to 170 kg/ha/year –Restriction of period for nitrogen application –Restricting fertilization near surface waters –Minimum quantity of vegetation in rainy periods Other policy elements can be implemented in FSSIM Applications Nitrate directive (TC2) – scenario description

11 D1.4.3 Applications Nitrate directive FSSIM-MP APES FSSIM-AM Farm indicators Detailed data on activities in 4 regions Agricultural production & externalities Data of baseline (prices, premiums) from SEAMCAP (& GTAP) Bio-economic farm model Regional indicators

12 D1.4.3 base year 2013 (changes wrt base year) BaselineNitrate directive Total Farm income (1000 €)79-7%-1%-8% Premiums (1000 €)41-26%-1%-27% Nitrate leaching (kg NO3/ha) 3413%-29%-16% Applications Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees

13 D1.4.3 Applications Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees, effects on labour use (h)

14 D1.4.3 Applications Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees, effects on yield (t/ha)

15 D1.4.3 Specifications of baseline Applications Describes situation in 2013 starting from 2003 data Changes in general economic environment derived from projections of others (inflation; population growth; trends in supply, demand and prices for EU (DG-Agri) and rest of world (FAPRI, FAO)) Trade: Uruguay, ACP and EBA, plus updates of regional agreements like NAFTA Domestic policy: CAP reform 2003 accounting for national differences in decoupling Can adjust standard baseline through running experiment and using this as reference point

16 Models and chainsData base Indicators Weather Soil Crops Farms Farm activities Typologies Indicators Policies Framework Library Factsheets FSSIM-AM FSSIM-MP EXPAMOD SEAMCAP APES Individual components Not yet integrated Stand-alone models PICA Main features of SEAMLESS-IF

17 Model chains Examples of applications Integrated model Stand alone model Individual components

18 D1.4.3 APES Individual components

19 D1.4.3 FSSIM (bio-economic farm model) Individual components

20 D1.4.3 Capri (agricultural sector model) Individual components

21 D1.4.3 EXPAMOD (upscaling farm-market) Individual components

22 D1.4.3 Model inputs Model outputs Intermediate results Indicators Weather Soil Crops Farms Farm activities Typologies Indicators Policies Spatially data framework Database Administrative regions Climate zones Agri-environmental zones stores Models Indicators Ontology Projects Links to Individual components

23 Database Database management with PgAdmin Individual components

24 D1.4.3 Individual components Examples of applications Indicator framework Classifiers of the goal-oriented framework

25 Home Indicator framework Individual components

26 D1.4.3 Indicator library List of available indicators (example) Individual components

27 D1.4.3 Indicator factsheets Indicator information box Supplementary information Individual components

28 SeamFrame SeamGUI Ontology Database SeamDB WMS Replication Domain Manager OpenMI Processing Environment Servlets Model Wrappers Core Models Requests Hibernate Code Generation SeamFrame Infrastructure software

29 Model linking SeamFrame Infrastructure software

30 Visualiation of results SeamPRES Infrastructure software Tables Diagrams (Line, bar, column, area, plot, pie) Maps …

31 SeamPRES work flow SeamPRES Infrastructure software Open Get Data View Adjust View Change Selection Restart Save Make Selection

32 End of presentation D1.4.3 - SEAMLESS-IF final version main features Press ESC

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