Presentation on theme: "Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor 2013 Texas Economic Outlook: Slightly Slower But Still Good to be in Texas."— Presentation transcript:
Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor 2013 Texas Economic Outlook: Slightly Slower But Still Good to be in Texas
National Economy Still Growing at a Modest Pace International weakness slowing US exports Federal government spending, Affordable Care Act restraining growth Meantime housing sector, consumer finances, and state and local government improving Q1 RGDP growth weaker than expected while May job growth slightly stronger than expected 2013 Likely another year of moderate growth
Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability – No Bubble Now Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify) 1999:Q42013:Q1Low Point Date of Low Point United States6474402006 : Q3 Los Angeles43402 2006 : Q1/Q2/Q3 New York553052006 : Q3/Q4 Miami5963102007 : Q1 Austin5669502000 : Q4 Dallas6471542007 : Q3 Houston6670472007 : Q3 San Antonio6473472006 : Q3
Job Growth Persistently Positive but not as Strong as Typical Rebound
June Blue Chip Survey Projects RGDP Growth of 2.3% in 2013
Past Several Years Texas Economy Has Grown above Trend and Stronger than Nation In past three years growth in energy, high-tech and exports provided a stimulus to Texas. Housing market less of a drag than nationally. In last three years Texas job growth has been above trend and faster than the national average. In 2012 growth in energy and exports slowed but construction and government improved – overall job growth at 3.3%. This year manufacturing, energy and Fed. Govt. will be slower while construction continues to accelerate This year I expect job growth of about 2.0%– 3.0% - slightly weaker than 2012.
Texas Economy Growing Above Trend (Texas Business Cycle Index)
Texas was Third Fastest Growing Job Growth State in 2012
Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation’s – Pickup in 2012
2012 Texas State and Local Government Jobs Bounced Back from 2011 Fiscal Cliff
All Texas Metros Moved From Recovery to Expansion
Metros with Big Presence of Fed. Govt. and Health Care Struggling
Recent Increase in TLI Components Have Been Mixed
2013 Job Growth Forecast is for Slightly Slower Growth - 2.0% to 3.0 %
Summary U.S. economy continues to grow at a moderate, disappointing pace Texas has faced similar headwinds (weak consumer spending, housing) but has grown faster due to strong growth in energy and exports and fewer problems in housing. Texas job growth picked up in 2012 to 3.3 percent mainly due to improvement in state and local government jobs. 2013 TX job growth will likely slow somewhat to between 2.0 and 3.0 percent as energy, exports and federal government slow and construction picks up. Risks to the outlook include political and international uncertainty and continued uncertainty with US fiscal spending.