Presentation on theme: "April 19, 2013 S OUTHERN N EVADA E CONOMY: R ESET... R EBUILD... R ECOVER Prepared by:"— Presentation transcript:
April 19, 2013 S OUTHERN N EVADA E CONOMY: R ESET... R EBUILD... R ECOVER Prepared by:
3 The ugliest chart, ever. This is NOT your fathers recession. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indexed by RCG. Nevada Recovery Comparison of Last 11 Recessions (1948 – 2007) % Job Losses Compared to Peak Job Month Current Jobs Recession-NV
4 The real unemployment rate - beyond the official rate. Note: Rates are at a 4-quarter moving-average basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U3 = Official unemployment rate % U6 = U3 + All Marginally Attached + Part-time Workers % U5 = U3 + Discouraged + All Other Marginally Attached Workers-13.3 U4 = U3 + Discouraged Workers- 11.9% Alternative Measures of the Nevada Unemployment Rate:
5 R EBUILD Resort Industry
6 Clark County Non-Farm Employment & Visitation Growth (%): The moderate return of visitor & job growth. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Las Vegas Conventions & Visitors Authority.
7 Las Vegas remains a strong player in global gaming resort market. But is it still Mecca? Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board. Clark County Gaming Revenue: 2003 – 2013 Net Baccarat GGR
8 Leisure & Hosp.s improving operating environment. Healthy increases in avg. daily room rates. Clark County Hotel Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR*): * RevPAR = average daily room rate x occupancy rate. Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Calculated by RCG.
9 Consumer spending slowly returning. How sustainable ? Source: Nevada Department of Taxation. Clark County Taxable Sales (12-Mo. Moving Average): 2003 – 2013
10 R EBUILD Job Market
11 Private jobs growing at a moderate pace, but government jobs continue to lag. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Clark County Public & Private Employment Growth (#):
12 * Based on Clark County's employment-to-workforce ratio (Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation). Indexed to a baseline of 100 in December The Stair Climb Return RCG Clark County & US Job Index*: Clark County February 2013 = Annual avg. = avg. = avg. = avg. = 91.8
13 Diversified or Not? Southern NVs Economy Clark County U.S. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG. Employment Distribution by Industry
14 Note: The first value by each industry is the LQ for that industry; the second value is the number of employees in that industry in Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG. Diversified or Not?, contd: Location Quotients Southern NVs Economy, Last 10 Years Mature sectors that are losing ground Mature, healthy sectors Sectors that need attention Potential up-and-coming sectors
15 S. Nevada has competitive but relatively low wages. Avg. weekly wage below the U.S. average. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Calculated by RCG. 10% above Clark 14% Clark County & US Average Weekly Wages – Adjusted in 2012 $
16 R EBUILD Real Estate
17 Median Home Prices*: * All product types, including hi-rises. Sources: Home Builders Research; MLS. Southern Nevadas new housing market has stabilized & improved over the past 12 months.
18 Sources: Various local entities; Center For Business & Economic Research at UNLV. Commercial permitting values have finally hit a bottom & continues to stabilize. Clark County Annualized Commercial Permit Valuation: Month Moving Totals 12-Month Total ending Feb/2013: $196.5 M
19 Industrial Vacancy & Asking Rents: Sources: RCG Economics. The Industrial market continues to bump along the bottom with stable but high vacancies.
20 Spec Office Vacancy & Asking Rents: Source: RCG Economics. The office market made some headway in 2012 & continues to stabilize with high vacancy.
21 Sources: RCG Economics. Anchored Retail Vacancy & Asking Rents: The anchored retail market is the most improved, because of improving taxable retail sales.
23 Realism vs. Fantasy Relentless Pragmatism & Creativity Are Key Real Economic Development Learning From Others Making Necessary Investments True Public-Private Partnerships Focus On Our True Assets