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© 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Trends Analysis Using Graphs and Charts Number your paper from 1-20 For each Graph / Chart write down 2 conclusions,

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Presentation on theme: "© 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Trends Analysis Using Graphs and Charts Number your paper from 1-20 For each Graph / Chart write down 2 conclusions,"— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Trends Analysis Using Graphs and Charts Number your paper from 1-20 For each Graph / Chart write down 2 conclusions, trends or patterns that you observe.

2 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000 Percent Adult Literacy, by Region Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (www.uis.unesco.org).

3 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 51 percent in Africa, to 68 percent in Asia, to 88 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states and North Africa, where nearly three-fourths of men but less than half of all women are literate. Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region

4 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions MaleFemaleMaleFemale 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16 5-9 0-4 Age Age Distribution of the World’s Population Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

5 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries. Roughly one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In many sub-Saharan African countries, this proportion rises to nearly one- half of the population. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15. Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades. Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population

6 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Millions Annual Increase in World Population Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2003.

7 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

8 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline. Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

9 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

10 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Desire for Smaller Families Women With Two Children Who Say They Want No More Children Percent Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys, 1988-2000.

11 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

12 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Billions Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries More Developed Countries Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

13 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Millions 1960 2000 2015 Largest Cities, Worldwide Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002.

14 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly in size and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1960 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. In 1960, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 14 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with nearly double this population size: 27 million. Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide

15 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Decline or Growth, 2002-2025 Percent Bulgaria (1.1) Russia (1.1) Italy (1.2) Trinidad & Tobago (1.6) South Korea (1.4) China (1.8) Country (average number of children per woman) Population in Countries With Low Fertility Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

16 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing —the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2025. Although women in both Russia and Bulgaria have on average 1.1 children each (among the lowest rates in the world), Russia, with a slightly younger population, will lose a smaller proportion of its population (14 percent, compared with 17 percent for Bulgaria) between 2002 and 2025. Still, Russia, having a much bigger population, is projected to lose nearly 20 million people, whereas Bulgaria will probably shrink by just 1.5 million. Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility

17 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

18 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

19 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau 10 Places With the Lowest Birth Rates Worldwide Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

20 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Trends in Aging, by World Region Population Ages 65 and Older Percent Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

21 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older. By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65. Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to nearly 475 million older people.

22 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

23 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Currently, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 65 years — up nine years since the late 1960s. Asia has experienced the largest increase in life expectancy since the late 1960s: from 54 years to 67 years. Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa. Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

24 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Millions Percent increase per year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

25 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year. Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 69 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.

26 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002. Trends in Urbanization, by Region

27 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau The world is becoming increasingly urban. By 2010, half of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas. Typically, the population living in towns of 2,000 or more, or in national and provincial capitals, is classified as urban. Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas. Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region

28 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Urbanization in Central America Population Living in Urban Areas Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002.

29 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Urbanization in Central America Urbanization in Latin America is a tale of two regions. Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years ago.

30 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Women and Aging World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025 Percent Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

31 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Women and Aging The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).

32 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Women of Childbearing Age Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

33 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau The number of women of childbearing ages 15 to 49 more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion. Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections. The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age

34 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Worldwide Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

35 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase through 2050. The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline. Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age. Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

36 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Population Clock Natural Increase perWorld More Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries (less China) Year80,903,481916,33779,987,14471,675,164 Day221,6532,511219,143196,370 Minute1542152136 2003 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2003 World Population Data Sheet.

37 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 123 (1930) 33 (1960) 14 (1974) 13 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 15 (2028) 26 (2054) World Population Growth, in Billions Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (medium scenario).

38 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8 7 6 5 2 1 4 3 Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague 9 10 11 12 A.D. 3000 A.D. 4000 A.D. 5000 1800 1900 1950 1975 2000 2100 Future Billions World Population Growth Through History Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

39 © 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Population Clock


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