IPv4 Consumption: Projection 7 Projected IANA exhaustion: 14/02/2011 Projected RIR exhaustion: 31/10/2011 http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html 12/01/2011 Nov 2011 When will you run out of IPv4 addresses?
IPv6 Deployment Statistics Source: http://www.potaroo.net/ January 2011 9
What’s the Question? Candidate questions: How much of the public Internet supports IPv6? How much of the public Internet runs IPv6? How quickly is the Internet becoming end-to-end IPv6 capable? How long will the dual stack transition take? 10
IPv6 / IPv4 BGP Table Size Ratio 14 2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 % 1.1 1.2 1.3 Is this a good indicator of IPv6 deployment? Probably not The data sets are not directly comparable: Historical fragmentation in IPv4 Traffic engineering in IPv4 Address aggregation in IPv6 Use of tunnelling prefixes in IPv6 Is this a good indicator of IPv6 deployment? Probably not The data sets are not directly comparable: Historical fragmentation in IPv4 Traffic engineering in IPv4 Address aggregation in IPv6 Use of tunnelling prefixes in IPv6
“Google has quietly turned on IPv6 support for its YouTube video streaming Web site, sending a spike of IPv6 traffic across the Internet…” – 1 Feb 2010 Networld Monash University, Melbourne, Australia: IPv6 Traffic
Comcast http://www.comcast6.net/ May 2010 First native dual-stack customer activated Comcast Business Class services June 2010 Activated their first residential 6RD trial customer located in Cambridge, MA, USA 19
Mobile Networks “Smartphones are driving a very large amount of network signalling…IPv6 is a priority” (T-Mobile) “(IPv6-enabled) Handsets will become prolific in 2011” (Verizon) 25
Way Forward: Are you ready for IPv4 exhaustion? 26
Beyond 2012… ISPs will need addresses for new network infrastructure and will receive only IPv6 End users will start receiving IPv6 Internet services with or without private IPv4 addresses Enterprises and businesses will get IPv6 for their new networks “Customer NAT” will apply to IPv4 27
IPv6 Address Management? RIRs will continue providing equitable services to the Internet community A stable and proven structure to manage Internet resources for the past 20 years Address management is not the issue in IPv6 deployment Policies are stable and unrelated to deployment Talk of alternative mechanisms for IPv6 address space distribution is a distraction All efforts should go to IPv6 deployment In the core and at the edges 28
ISPs Note well: One day soon, you will only get IPv6 addresses for new deployments… Is your infrastructure ready for IPv6? Can you deliver IPv6 services in 2012? What is your plan for IPv4 services to your customers? None? Customer NAT? CGN? Are your services and systems ready? DNS, SMTP, web, mail, etc Security, monitoring, customer admin, billing…
Enterprises and Content Providers One day, your customers and business partners may only have IPv6 addresses… Will your website and services be visible via IPv6 in 2012? Do you have an upgrade plan? Does your domain name have AAAA? Do all your service providers, integrators and vendors have their plans in place? Have you asked them?
Others… System integrators and consultants Can you put all the pieces together? Are your people trained to answer questions? Can you help your customers with their planning? Academics and educators Is your institution ready for IPv6 in 2011? Are you producing IPv6-ready graduates? Have you upgraded your skills?
Governments Do you have procurement criteria mandating IPv6 capabilities? Are your agencies ready with IPv6? Are your online and e-government services ready with IPv6? Are your Internet industries up to speed? Are you providing leadership? What else are you doing?
IPv6: A prerequisite to the sustainable long-term development of a ubiquitous and open Internet Thank you! 33